Here are some preliminary answers to the questions, with explanation and additional information.
QUESTIONS 1-5 were based on the following fractions:
27.4 57.1 1:25.2 155.2
The first thing to notice about this set of fractions is the relative fractional speed: the first quarter was 27.4, the second quarter was 29.2, the third quarter was 28.1 and the final quarter was 30. If you were to view this in halves, rather than quarters, the first half was 57.1, the final half is 58.1, the middle half was 57.3. Based on this, I would have expected that several horses probably left, and a speed duel during the third quarter. I would expect that with the slow final quarter, that this race was probably won by a closer with the front runners being tired from involvement in the rapid early pace. So, now that I know kind of what I expect, let's play shape judge:
The first thing that I have to tell you is that these were not ficitious horses or fractions -- they were real ones, taken from real races, so I have a good idea as to whether I am right or wrong.
A tiny bit on the process of shape determination: I do it from charts, NOT from a program line. Again, I strongly suggest originating from charts, which means that AFTER a race, I have a shape on each horse that just ran. Then I work forward as I see what field he drawns in. But when you work primarily off the program, as most do, you simply cannot take each horses line, and go back and examine the charts in detail at that point ... you just don't have the time or patience. SO IT IS IMPORTANT TO KNOW WHICH ARE THE KEY LINES, WHICH ARE AMBIGUOUS AND NEED FURTHER LOOKS, AND WHICH DON'T.
QUESTION 1. - Horse A - usually races best off the pace.
Most got this dead wrong, answering A or B. A couple answered C, which could maybe be an acceptable answer at first glance, but not really.
HORSE A 3 6 5p 4p 4/2 ¾ 2/nk----->definitely out of shape - A
this is a classic "false positive" that fools many who are not "in the know"...it's the old "bullshit close into the nothing final quarter". This horse is a closer ... he had absolutely nothing to do with the fast early pace, most likely had cover, got into perfect striking position and couldn't pull it off. In this case, any closer who is in this position, having not been used after they go 1:25.2 and can't manage to stagger home with his nose in front in a 30 second final quarter ain't in shape. <<<additional information: chart revealed that he indeed did have cover the entire second half>>>....by the way, you are in the majority in overrating this horse, as he went off as a heavy favorite in his next race and finished out of the money without an apparent excuse. Hypthetical question: What if the chart revealed that this horse in fact did not have any cover at all, then, our answer might change, wouldn't it?
QUESTION 2. - Horse B - usually races best off the pace.
7 8 8p 8pp 7/5 5/1 ¾------->is not necessarily in shape - C
again, you would be falling into a classic trap by calling this horse in-shape without close chart research. For similar reasons as Horse A, he really cannot be given any brownie points for closing as the pace was so slow at the end. The only difference between this and Horse A (who we know is OUT of shape) is that this horse was three-wide, lost some ground and there and might be in shape, but not necessarily.<<the chart reveals that while this horse only passed two horses in the stretch, he gained ground on everybody in the race, including the pocket sitter who won>>
QUESTION 3. - Horse C - has some early speed.
5 2 4 5 3/1 ¾ 3/ ½--------->is probably
in shape - B
Most gave C for this ... this horse left and used some energy in the first part of the race, went to the top then was shuffled back somewhat and was able to find room and close at the end. Showing speed on both ends is more impressive, so he is probably in shape.<<<the chart reveals that nobody from the inside of the track left, and he was not parking anybody, but was apparently shuffled -- upon that I would not call him in shape>>>
QUESTION 4. - Horse D - has shown some early speed in past.
10 1 2 3 2/1 ½ 4/1---------->is definitely
in shape - A
Most were on target here, giving an A or a B .. he left hard and was used in the first part of the race .... was still second at the half, so he yielded at some point during the second quarter, although he could have still been dueling, came out to challenge at headstretch and missed by just a legnth. Having used much energy in the fast first part of the race, he must me in shape to still hang in there that well.<<<<he dueled for a good part of the backstretch, yielding just before the half>>>
QUESTION 5. - Horse E - has shown some early speed in past.
1 4 3p 1 7/4 10/6 ¾-------->can't really
tell - E
most wrote this off with a D ..he tried to make a brush, probably was caught first over, continued on during a very rapid third panel and understably, went backwards, though he managed to lose only a couple of lengths in the stretch. His fade is excusable, so you really can't say anything. <<<chart didn't reveal much more, so you really could not say anything without knowing what shape the horse was in prior>>>
In the second set of races, the fractions are 28.2 - 27.4 - 27 - 28.4 ...... the halves are: 56.1 - 54.4 - 55.4. Here, the middle half was unusually fast, 3rd quarter in particular with the first half being the slow portion. Since the first half was so soft, you would expect horses who were able to secure reasonable position near the front during that portion to hold very well ... the very fast third quarter should have held all closers at bay, keeping them far enough off so that even if they did kick in, they should not have been a threat to the leaders.
QUESTION 6 - Horse F - generally races better from off the pace.
HORSE F 28.2 56.1 1:23.1 1:52 ............10 6p 2p 1 1/2 ½ 2/1---------------->definitely in shape - A
this should be a no brainer ...almost everyone gave this horse an A - horse was parked every step, made his big move in the middle half, which was the fastest part of the race, dueled for the lead, and just couldn't make it stick after all that. Particularly impressive for a horse who usually races from off the pace.
QUESTION 7 - Horse G is a balanced performer, who can race either way.
HORSE G 28.2 56.1 1:23.1 1:52 .............5 2 5 5 5/4 ½ 3/1 ½----------------->can't really tell - E
Most gave this a B - well, he left, but then didn't have to do much during the hot part of the race, then closed well .... made two moves, but niether part of the race was particularly fast, so you really can't say much ... to make any conclusion just based on this would be very risky.
QUESTION 8 - Horse H has no defined racing style.
HORSE H 28.2 56.1 1:23.1 1:52 ............. 8 3p 1 3 3/3 4/3------------------->probably in shape - B
Most were on target here - Similar to Horse F, but a very substantial difference .. this one did his work mainly in the first half, and was able to reserve and rest a bit during that hot third panel .. held on well ...so he's probably in shape.<<<if these first 3 were in the same race together, seeing this line would cause us to definitely call Horse G's effort inferior to that of Horse H>>>
QUESTION 9 - Horse I is more of a closer.
HORSE I 28.2 56.1 1:23.1 1:52 ...............7 9 8p 8pp 8/9 ¼ 8/10-------------------->definitely out of shape - D
Everyone got this - no excuses for this one ... sat off all the hot action, is a closer and could not gain an inch. <<< if this horse were not a closer, though, I might be suspicious that a full effort was not made>>>
QUESTION 10 - Horse J generally prefers to be at or near the lead.
HORSE J 28.2 56.1 1:23.1 1:52 ................ 6 1 3 4p 2/2 ½ 1/1-------------------->not necessarily in shape - C
This is a fooler - everyone picked A or B indicating that they felt the horse was probably or definitely in shape. He generally likes to leave -- got there in a relatively modest first quarter, then rested while the heat was on, came back out at 3/4 as the pace was starting to slow a bit and got the win. He could be in shape, but since he did all of his most effective racing in the slower portions of the race, he is not necessarily in shape. <<If he were already in shape, then there would be no problem, but if he were in average shape prior, I would be very hesitant to upgrade based on this, especially if I discovered that he had cover in the final bend) <<<chart revealed cover at 3/4>>>
For the last 5, the quarters went 28.1 - 29.3 - 29.1 - 27 ..... if you want halves 57.4 - 58.4 - 56.1 -- In this race the pace slowed markedly in the middle, picking up dramatically coming home. You would expect a front-runner to do well here.
QUESTION 11: Horse K has shown early speed in the past.
HORSE K 28.1 57.4 1:27 1:54.................4 3 1 1 1 2/hd 6/6 ¼-------------------->definitely out of shape - D
Most said C, and a few D's. I'd accept a C answer here IF YOU CONSULT THE CHART . here's an early speed horse who got just what he wanted ... the lead, a relatively soft pace and fell totally to pieces in the lane. It's unlikely that he got pressure, otherwise, the pace would not be so soft...if there was a challenger, it was probably a weak one. <<<chart revealed that the only pressure came at the 3/4 pole>>>
QUESTION 12: Horse L has shown early speed in the past.
HORSE L 28.1 57.4 1:27 1:54.4 ............. 9 3 3 5 5/2 ¾ 1/1 ¼-------------------->probably in shape - B
this horse was used a bit in that quick first quarter .... then reserved and exploded during that fast final quarter for the victory. He is probably in shape...if you said definitely, I would also give you credit. the reservations are on how easy he got that rail position in the opening quarter <<<the chart reveals that nobody from the middle of the track left ... therefore, he really used little energy getting position, so "Definitely" might be a costly assumption>>>
QUESTION 13: Horse M has shown the ability to race either way.
HORSE M 28.1 57.4 1:27 1:54.4 ..........7 6p 4p 2p 1/hd 2/1 ¼-------------------->definitely in shape - A
Most on target here ... well, here's one who got parked the mile, dueled, did all the work, and has the pace quickened to a climax, he held right in there, getting beat by only one horse and by about a length. He is absolutely in shape. Contrast this with the horse just above it, and we can see the difference between a Definite and a Probably. Anyone who said "Probably" needs to look at this. <<<the chart revealed that this horse had no cover at any point in the race>>>
QUESTION 14: Horse N has no particular style.
HORSE N 28.1 57.4 1:27 1:54.4 ............. 6 8 6p 4p 4/2 ½ 4/4-------------------->can't really tell - E
Most said C, but I think that would be unfair ... he did nothing wrong .... followed cover into position, was in striking distance, but they sped up and went so fast at the end that he can be excused for not closing in...so you really cannot tell unless you look carefully at the chart here. <<<the chart reveals that he followed cover past the half, but lost same by the 3/4 ... in that case, "C" would be a clear mistake>>
QUESTION 15: Horse O seems to lack early speed.
HORSE O 28.1 57.4 1:27 1:54.4 ..............1 4 5 7 6/5 ½ 3/ 3 ¼-------------------->not necessarily in shape - C
again, a deceptive one ... he gets positive credit certainly for closing into that very fast final last half, but he did absolutely nothing .... used no energy at all prior to that, so you would expect him to close in. Depending on who he passed, he could be in shape, or just okay. Compare and contrast this with Horse L -- true L left, but if he just ducked in on the rail quickly, then there may be little to choose between the two. <<<chart revealed that the only horse which O actually gained ground on in the stretch was the leader, who faded>>>