This is one of my favorite angles with trotters. Not pacers, just trotters. It's very simple and comes up from time to time. Almost always, it results in solid value.

Of course, one of the things that concern most handicappers when it comes to trotters is the fact that they break more often than pacers. Most handicappers look specifically to avoid trotters that seem to have "breaking" problems, confining their bets to the animals, which show clean lines on their program or have "good manners."

It's really not that simple. Breaking stride can be a sign of many things. In fact, I think "manners" is not that important. When a horse seems to be unable to stay on stride, it's usually indicative of something else behind the scenes

So, with that all being said, here is one of my favorite animals to bet on: The trotter who seems to show breaks in numerous lines on his program! <waiting for you to get up off the floor and finish your email to me that I am nuts>

Well, actually, that's the first part of it. The next thing I look for is a most recent line, usually in a qualifier, in which our horse in question made a genuine "move" (the speed or fractions make no difference) and in which he STAYED FLAT. When they suddenly trot a mile, it can also be a number of things, but very often it means that THEY FIGURED SOMETHING OUT.

That's it. That's the angle. The "bad mannered" trotter who FINALLY stays flat. I can't tell you how many times I have hit with this type of horse. And the kicker is that they are usually pretty extreme value because most bettors don't believe what they see in a qualifier and are concerned mainly with the time. If I have a horse that I know (or sense) is fast enough to win, then speed itself becomes mute. The qualifier can go in 1:56 or 1:59, it really doesn't matter to me. The important thing is that the horse MANAGED TO STAY FLAT. And I don't mean a race where they just sit on the rail the whole time and go 5 seconds slower than the horse's customary "time". As long as the horse makes some kind of "move" and manages to keep trotting, I'm interested.

These horses almost always go off at anywhere from 2 to 10 times the odds that they should. The betting public seems to be waiting for some sort of confirmation. They seem to be challenging this horse to beat them out of money before they believe that the horse can trot a mile.

Here are a couple of recent examples from this week at Balmoral. One happened this past Thursday - the other horse happens to be running tonight. Both were GoldClub selections. I've included the entire program page for reference.

The horse of interest in this race was 9-MAJOR DIGBY. Notice how we have a recurring pattern of breaks. Then suddenly, out of the blue, come a race where he makes a move (comes first over and picks up 9 lengths in the middle half) and stays flat for the mile. Interestingly, Mystical Victor, who went off at 3/5 here, was in that race, and notice how MajorDigby made this move and challenged that one and hung very well for 2nd. In fact, this line itself wasn't too bad. BUT HERE'S THE ANGLE - CONSISTENT BREAKING PROBLEMS, SUDDENLY MAKES A MOVE AND STAYS FLAT. He went off at 26-1 and paid $54.80.

Tonight, Sunday, as I write, we have yet another possible place to use this angle, again at Balmoral Park. The horse here is SMOKE'N SORCE.

Now this won't (or shouldn't) be any 26-1 shot, and it doesn't EXACTLY fit the pattern. We have a horse who can't stay trotting, then qualifies and stays flat, but notice how he did not make any move at all in that qualifier. THAT DOESN'T COUNT. I insist that the horse show that he can be asked for trot at some point and keep trotting. This event came on the next race, where he closed very solidly AND KEPT TROTTING - and took 6 seconds off the qualifier.

Keep an eye out for these type. Often, the odds are so much higher than they should be - more than enough to compensate you for the possibility that the horse CAN'T trot a mile. But more often, the connections have hit on something, and you can get tremendous value on these animals.