Handicapping Corner

with Steve M.

CHART READING 101
A Multiple Part Series on Chart Reading
Part II
"Closing" in on winners - spotting sharp closers

 

Again, the focus of this series is to keep focused on recent charts, and not go back to irrelevant prior charts unless necessary. I am going to try to work in "real time", using principally Saturday night charts, if applicable In addition, in between issues, you will find some supplements or additional notes as the racing nights unfold. We will be using the Meadowlands, although the principles can be applied to any track you are looking at.

Well, I was going to continue last week with understanding the charts of closers … but unfortunately, the April 21 Saturday charts from the Meadowlands really did not show me much in this area. And believe it or not, this past Saturday, May 1, did not show me any closers to really focus in on either. So for this installment - we are going to do this in multiple parts, looking at some different days throughout the past week at the Meadowlands. THIS IS A LESSON YOU SHOULD LEARN ABOUT STUDYING CHARTS - you have to see what is there, not what you want to be there. You cannot really say that you are going to look for closers tonight, determined to find some when there aren't any.

IF YOU DO NOT ALREADY HAVE THEM .. YOU SHOULD HAVE THE CHARTS OF APRIL 28 - MAY 2 DOWNLOADED AND PRINTED OR SAVED.

Wednesday April 28 -- This was clearly a night from which to spot live front-runners, not live closers. Only 1 horse all night long where able to carry sustained speed moves from the start and parlay it into a victory, namely, ALLAMERICAN COOL in the 3rd race. In fact, the only other such horse who even came close to winning was DIANES DREAM in the 6th race, who led all the way and got beat by 1 length. None of the other horses who attempted front-running were even close! So this is a good night to look at some of the speed tries, particularly those where the fractions were relatively fast.

Race 3: ALLAMERICAN COOL, the only speed winner of the evening was lightly regarded at almost 17-1 … therefore, this race might represent a significant improvement. Consult the program to see if this was the case. Further, in terms of relative speed, this race had faster than average fractions, making his wire to wire victory impressive in my book, despite the fact that he appears to have gotten little pressure.

The fastest speed fractions of the night occurred in the 4th and 6th races. Let's take a peek:

M    ,19990428,6,04        THE MEADOWLANDS             RACE DATE:   04/28/1999
RACE: 04       TYPE: LATE BETTING         CLASS: nw6500L6cd         GAIT: PACE
EVENT:
PURSE:     9,300  TRACK COND: FAST     TIME: 0:27.0 - 0:55.3 - 1:24.4 - 1:53.2
                                                            -- TIME --
    HORSE NAME      POST  1/4  1/2  3/4 STRETCH   FINISH    ACTUAL  LQ   ODDS
POWERFUL STRUCTUR     6    2    2    2    2/1H     1/2      1:53.2 28.2    500
JOHNSON COUNTY        7    8    8  8pp    4/3H     2/2      1:53.4 27.4   1200
SPORTS UPDATE         5    1    1    1    1/1H     3/2T     1:54.0 29.1    740
APACHE HANOVER        1    3    3    4    3/3H     4/3H     1:54.0 28.3    970
HOUSE OF FUN          4    7    7  6pp    6/4      5/5      1:54.2 28.4    200
BROAD GRIN            3    5    5    7    5/3T     6/5Q     1:54.2 28.3   3440
GOFFERIT              2    6    6   5p    8/5Q     7/5H     1:54.2 28.4   *200
NUKE THE SCOOT        9    4    4   3p    7/5      8/7Q     1:54.4 29.4   2480
HAVE NO FEAR          8    9    9  9pp    9/8Q     9/9T     1:55.2 28.4   2850
DRIVERS: D.S. MILLER, C.R. MANZI, L.R. OUELLETTE, R.D. PIERCE,
R.S. SILVERMAN, J.D. CAMPBELL, D. DUBE, M. LACHANCE, B.F. WEBSTER

In the 4th, it again appears that the lead was gotten relatively easily, little significant pressure and the front end couldn't hold. The only horses who were used at all in terms of making the pace here were SPORTS UPDATE and POWERFUL STRUCTURE, whose effort should not be discounted despite the trip, since we know he was in shape going into this race.

Race 6 is potentially a more fertile place to look.

M    ,19990428,6,06        THE MEADOWLANDS             RACE DATE:   04/28/1999
RACE: 06       TYPE: LATE BETTING         CLASS: D3yrFnw2Lc         GAIT: PACE
EVENT:
PURSE:    50,000  TRACK COND: FAST     TIME: 0:27.3 - 0:55.3 - 1:24.4 - 1:54.0
                                                            -- TIME --
    HORSE NAME      POST  1/4  1/2  3/4 STRETCH   FINISH    ACTUAL  LQ   ODDS
MARY SUE HANOVER      3    5    5   5p    3/2H     1/H      1:54.0 28.2    240
WHITE HOT HANOVER     9   2p    2    2    2/1Q     2/H      1:54.0 29     1010
DIANES DREAM          2    4    1    1    1/1Q     3/1      1:54.1 29.2 E0*220
A SONG FOR SARA       5    1    3    4    4/3H     4/4H     1:54.4 29.2    670
BYDAWNEARLYLITE       7    7    7    6    5/5H     5/6T     1:55.2 29.3   3290
CANACO SOLICO         4    6    6   7p    6/7Q     6/8T     1:55.4 29.4   1560
ALI BOMBER            8    8   8p   8p    8/8T     7/9Q     1:55.4 29.1   3030
CATCH THE FALCON      1    3    4   3p    7/8Q     8/12Q    1:56.2 31.1 E0*220
MONITRIX             10    9    9    9    9/11Q    9/15T    1:57.1 30.3  12330
CAMPAIGN LEADER      6X   10   10   10   10/DIS   10/36     2:01.1         280
DRIVERS: J.D. CAMPBELL, C.R. MANZI, D. DUBE, D.S. MILLER,
M. LACHANCE, R.D. PIERCE, J.L. RANDALL, L.R. OUELLETTE, R.J. POULIN,
J.P. SCHWIND

A SONG FOR SARA shoed some speed early, as did WHITE HOT HANOVER. DIANES DREAM made a move down the backstretch to take control from the ½. One would have to question though why A SONG FOR SARA could not gain a lick on the #9. Let's mark these down to watch.

In fact, if we get the opportunity to see some of these horses race back, and we discover that this observation was correct (i.e. horses who tried it on the front end this evening race back with winning or very strong efforts), then we might even expand the scope to look at a horse such as GENTLEMAN JATE in the 8th.

M    ,19990428,6,08        THE MEADOWLANDS             RACE DATE:   04/28/1999
RACE: 08       TYPE: LATE BETTING         CLASS: 15000CLcdJ         GAIT: PACE
EVENT:
PURSE:    11,625  TRACK COND: FAST     TIME: 0:28.0 - 0:56.3 - 1:25.4 - 1:55.2
                                                            -- TIME --
    HORSE NAME      POST  1/4  1/2  3/4 STRETCH   FINISH    ACTUAL  LQ   ODDS
ROAD HAPPY            3    5    7    8    4/3Q     1/NS     1:55.2 28.1   8260
UNDAUNTED ANGEL       2    4    5    6    3/3      2/NS     1:55.2 28.4    830
KASH IN TIME          1    2    2    2    2/1      3/H      1:55.2 29.2    880
FOX VALLEY ROGUE      7    8   8p   7p    6/5H     4/1H     1:55.3 28.4    790
GENTLEMAN JATE        5  1pp    1    1    1/1      5/3Q     1:56.0 30.1    450
CJ FLANAGAN           4   3p    3    4    7/5T     6/3T     1:56.1 29.4   1550
THE SHARK             8    9    9   9p    5/5H     7/4      1:56.1 29      390
MIDNIGHT RAIDER       6    6   4p   3p    8/7      8/7Q     1:56.4 30.3   *280
JATE'S BIG TIMER      9    7   6p   5p   9X/9H   X9X/25     2:00.2 33.4    490
DRIVERS: R.S. SILVERMAN, M. LACHANCE, J.L. RANDALL, W.A. O'DONNELL,
P.N. FUSCO, L.F. PAULUCCI, R.D. PIERCE, M.J. KESMODEL, L.R. OUELLETTE

Here, the front-end fractions weren't quite as fast as the others, but certainly we had a clear duel, with 3 horses leaving and GENTLEMAN JATE being parked 3-deep to the quarter, and possibly facing some weak pressure later. KASH IN TIME will appear like a 2-hole pocket sitter all the way around the track on the program, but if you look here, you see that he was leaving full-bore here, parking not 1 but 2 other horses!
=======================================================================
I started off saying that this week was going to be about closers - and we see that Wednesday April 28 might indeed be a good place to find a live front runner, and a relatively poor place to find live closers, as they were apparently assisted by a fierce bias.

However, there is one closer on this night whose effort was good enough to take note of. THAT'S THE BONUS QUESTION FOR TODAY -- what race and which horse will this be??


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