First, the answer to our bonus question from yesterday -- I received quite a few different answers. If not for the closing bias, some might have been interesting. The race I was looking at here was the 1st race on April 28th.

M ,19990428,6,01 THE MEADOWLANDS RACE DATE: 04/28/1999 RACE: 01 TYPE: LATE BETTING CLASS: nw6500L6cd GAIT: TROT EVENT: PURSE: 9,500 TRACK COND: FAST TIME: 0:29.1 - 0:58.2 - 1:28.0 - 1:56.3 -- TIME -- HORSE NAME POST 1/4 1/2 3/4 STRETCH FINISH ACTUAL LQ ODDS CLASSIC MODEL 3 8 7 6p 3/2Q 1/T 1:56.3 27.3 *190 YANKEE POPS 1 2 2 2 2/1T 2/T 1:56.4 28.3 1130 KODIAK EXPRESS 4 1p 1 1 1/1T 3/3Q 1:57.1 29.1 300 P L MISSY 9 3 3 3p 5/6Q 4/8T 1:58.2 30.1 200 MACHIAVELLIAN 2 4 4 4 4/5Q 5/8T 1:58.2 29.4 1730 GOLIATH ANGUS 6 9 8 7 7/9Q 6/11T 1:59.0 29.3 4260 KAREN'S WINDANCER 5 7 6 5p 6X/7T X7X/12Q 1:59.0 30.1 900 BRANDED 7 X6pX 9 8 8/21Q 8/25 2:01.3 29.1 8010 STANWALLS PRISE 8 5 5X 9pX 9/DIS 9/35 2:03.3 31.1 4200 ALLAIRE HANOVER SCRATCHED DRIVERS: D.J. DANCER, P. HENRIKSEN, R.I. REMMEN, J.D. CAMPBELL, D.S. MILLER, W.J. MAC KENZIE, J.P. SCHWIND, R.D. PIERCE, R.A. BILACH, SCRATCHED

The first thing to notice about this race is that it was the ONLY race than night with negative splits - that is, where the last half was the fastest part of the race. In this race, the #1 and #4 left and dueled past the ¼ in very moderate opening fractions. The pace slowed even further in the 3rd panel where a week challenge on the rim appeared from #9, but it is evident from the charts that this one never got there. Our key horse here, CLASSIC MODEL, was riding 3rd over behind 2 horses on the rim, neither of whom had anything at that point. The pace accelerated markedly coming for home as CLASSIC MODEL trotted over the field.

There are certain important things to look at when evaluating the performance of closers:
1-The relative speed of the last half.
2-The relative speed of the 3rd quarter versus the 4th quarter
3-The amount of and effectiveness of the cover, if any.
4-The apparent energy status of the horses in front.
5-The bias

Naturally, we would prefer that a closer perform well in a fast final half(1). The final half, however, consists of 2 portions which are often much different in nature(2). Sometimes, the pace is relatively relaxed in the 3rd quarter, accelerating in the lane. In this case, the stretch performance is the key. Sommetimes, the pace is quick in the 3rd panel, easing a bit late. In the first case, naturally, we would prefer a horse that made a meaningful and effective move in the very final stages. In the latter case, we look more actively for horses who might have been used harder trying to gain striking position, say, with an early 3-wide move or uncovered. When a closer is riding behind cover, the energy level of that cover must be looked at (3). One of the most difficult trips that a closer can get at the Meadowlands is to be in the flow 3rd or 4th over while the pace relaxes in the 3rd quarter, with the key horse biding his time. Then, the 1st over horse stops advancing before headstretch (4) allowing the leaders to skip away and accelerate off. The closers in this case often have to go wide prematurely and lose substantial ground on the final bend as the stack wide. The effort of CLASSIC MODEL has many of the classic elements.

Our bonus question for today might have some relevance tommorrow, Thursday May 6. For this, we will look at the action on Friday April 30th. This race is another situation which seems to contain all of the fertility we need to spot a sharp closer. What race is it and who is the horse?