First, the answer to our bonus question from yesterday -- I received quite a few different answers. If not for the closing bias, some might have been interesting. The race I was looking at here was the 1st race on April 28th.
Yesterday's bonus question related to on Friday April 30th. "This race is another situation which seems to contain all of the fertility we need to spot a sharp closer. What race is it and who is the horse?"
Actually, there were 3 races here to focus in on here for live closers, and this night provides a good method to compare and contrast the different types of closers. Remember - the 3rd quarter and the 4th quarter are usually of distinctly different characters, so it is important to know which part of the final half accounted for the fact that it was fast. Was it the final quarter and stretch run? Was it the third quarter via a duel, etc.? Was it niether in particular or both?
On Friday April 30th, the fractions call my attention to the 3rd, 5th and 9th races. In each of these races, the final half fractions where fast enough for this evening for us to give a look. But let's take a look inside the halves of these 3 races to get some understanding
Race 3rd Q 4th Q 3 Avg Very Fast 5 Very Fast Slow 9 Very Slow Fast
Looking at this, in Race 3, obviously we would be concentrating on horses who were used most effectively in the final quarter and the stretch. Also, we are looking for horses who might have been prevented from doing their best during this time period.
In Race 5, we have a much different picture. Here, the action was clearly in the 3rd quarter, on the turn. Hence, we will be focusing on horses used effectively at that time.
Finally, in Race 9, the action was noticeably slower on the far turn,
and picked up coming for home
M ,19990430,6,03 THE MEADOWLANDS RACE DATE: 04/30/1999
RACE: 03 TYPE: LATE BETTING CLASS: Inv GAIT: TROT
EVENT:
PURSE: 40,000 TRACK COND: FAST TIME: 0:28.4 - 0:58.0 - 1:27.1 - 1:55.0
-- TIME --
HORSE NAME POST 1/4 1/2 3/4 STRETCH FINISH ACTUAL LQ ODDS
MONI MAKER 1 3 1 1 1/1Q 1/3Q 1:55.0 27.4 *30
SUPER HIGH TEST 8 1 2 2 2/1Q 2/3Q 1:55.3 28.1 1810
FEDERAL YANKEE 2 4 4 7 5/3H 3/4H 1:55.4 27.3 4600
SAIJO 6 2 3 3 4/3Q 4/5Q 1:56.0 28.2 2880
MAGICIAN 4 6 6p 4p 3/2Q 5/6 1:56.1 28.3 790
C L STIX 7 7 7p 6p 6/5 6/8T 1:56.4 28.4 6690
SPITFIRE RANGER 5 5 5 5 7/5H 7/9Q 1:56.4 28.4 3530
MISTER GOAL 3X 9 9 9p 8/6H 8/11Q 1:57.1 28.3 440
GV'S CAESAR 9 8 8 8X X9/10H 9/18T 1:58.4 30.2 5610
SUPERTOY SCRATCHED
DRIVERS: W.J. HENNESSEY, W.A. O'DONNELL, L.R. OUELLETTE, R.D. PIERCE,
C.R. MANZI, J.G. MOISEYEV, M. LACHANCE, J.D. CAMPBELL, D.S. MILLER,
SCRATCHED
Now a Race like the 3rd - you have to be very careful about actively spotting from. This was the race with MONI MAKER and in these type of races, often the oars come out after the humongous favorite gets the top. Horses might appear to be making moves in fast parts of the race, but since these moves don't figure to do anything except make the race look more legit, I tend to take them with a grain of salt. In fact, the most meaningful move by any other "live" horses usually happens early in the battle for the pocket. So as is typical, these races turn out to be boring to watch and not that productive to spot from. But one place you can look is at the end. Here, FEDERAL YANKEE did nothing, but neither did anyone else, really, because the fractions were so soft. But he held versus Moni Maker, losing only 1 length to that one while gaining substantially on everyone else in the race. He gained a full length on the pocket sitter, and several on everyone else. Worth watching since the stretch, in this case, was the key part of this race.
M ,19990430,6,05 THE MEADOWLANDS RACE DATE: 04/30/1999
RACE: 05 TYPE: LATE BETTING CLASS: nw3 cd GAIT: PACE
EVENT:
PURSE: 19,000 TRACK COND: FAST TIME: 0:27.4 - 0:56.2 - 1:24.0 - 1:52.3
-- TIME --
HORSE NAME POST 1/4 1/2 3/4 STRETCH FINISH ACTUAL LQ ODDS
TIME LINE 7 1 1 1 1/1H 1/2 1:52.3 28.3 *180
CHARLIE SCOOTER 8 8 8 8 4/2T 2/2 1:53.0 28 890
ARMBRO RUTHLESS 1 4 5 4 5/3Q 3/2Q 1:53.0 28.2 570
RELENTLESS YANKEE 2 2 2 3 2/1H 4/2H 1:53.0 28.4 1600
EASY SMILE 5 6 7p 7pp 7/4T 5/4 1:53.2 28.3 690
DISTANT GAME 4 5 6 5 6/4H 6/5 1:53.3 28.4 1450
CAMRITE 9 9 9p 9p 8/6T 7/7T 1:54.1 29 3250
HIS ALIBI 6 7 3pp 2 3/2T 8/8T 1:54.2 30.2 270
ALLAMERICAN DREAM 3 3p 4p 6p 9/10T 9/17 1:56.0 31.1 1540
DRIVERS: L.R. OUELLETTE, C.R. MANZI, J.R. PLUTINO, J.G. MOISEYEV,
D.S. MILLER, M. LACHANCE, W.A. O'DONNELL, R.D. PIERCE, R.A. BILACH
Race 5 we have a different picture, focusing on the 3rd quarter. Certainly, the leader was, by definition, being used effectively here (TIME LINE). It is tempting to look at CHARLIE SCOOTER. This race was not all that impressive, in and of itself, though he was in some trouble. Failing to move very early in the race, he was blocked and shuffled all the way, hugging the pylons, and came up a wide open rail for the place spot. Here, it is important to know what the horse's shape was going into this race. Since Charlie Scooter had been rated Sharp going into this race, and since his progress was impeded, we certainly would not downgrade him for this effort and would continue to keep him on our "in-shape" list. HIS ALIBI made a ridiculous move at the half, but I am more attracted to the effort of EASY SMILE here. Clearly, he was following dead cover #3 which stalled in his face, and had to use that fast 3rd panel to attempt a 3-wide sweep - and given that, if you look carefully at the lengths behind … you will see that he paced at least evenly with almost everybody after that. That impresses me.
M ,19990430,6,09 THE MEADOWLANDS RACE DATE: 04/30/1999
RACE: 09 TYPE: LATE BETTING CLASS: FMnw12500 GAIT: PACE
EVENT:
PURSE: 23,500 TRACK COND: FAST TIME: 0:27.3 - 0:56.3 - 1:25.4 - 1:53.3
-- TIME --
HORSE NAME POST 1/4 1/2 3/4 STRETCH FINISH ACTUAL LQ ODDS
TAKEN 4 1p 1 1 1/1Q 1/1T 1:53.3 27.4 300
VARBO 5 6 6p 5p 5/2T 2/1T 1:54.0 27.4 480
CHRISTINE PLUMSTE 2 3 3 4 3/1H 3/2 1:54.0 27.4 1020
WOODSIE AND BUSTE 1 2 2 2 2/1Q 4/2 1:54.0 28 850
YANKEE PROMISE 9 9 8 9p 8/4H 5/2T 1:54.1 27.2 660
LIFE ATTHE TOP A 6 8 7p 6p 7/4 6/3Q 1:54.1 27.3 1880
SOCIETY ANN 7 4 4 7 6/4 7/3H 1:54.1 27.3 *300
SUN N MOON 8 7p 9 8 9/5H 8/4H 1:54.2 27.3 3040
CINDYS HOPE 3 5 5p 3p 4/2H 9/5Q 1:54.3 28.3 640
DEBBY'S BUD LITE SCRATCHED
DRIVERS: L.R. OUELLETTE, W.A. O'DONNELL, J.G. MOISEYEV, D.S. MILLER,
C.R. MANZI, R.S. SILVERMAN, W.J. HENNESSEY, M. LACHANCE,
J.D. CAMPBELL, SCRATCHED
In Race 9, the battle was brief in the first quarter as Taken took command, then relaxed to a near walk in the middle half with a sprint home. Again, clearly VARBO was affected by the very weak challenge of Cindy's Hope, and closed reasonably well for 2nd off that. More impressive even was YANKEE PROMISE, who clearly had both a weak flow in front of her and excess cover. Mid way through the lane, she was still 8th and closed strongest of all, gaining ¾ on Varbo and clearly outpacing everyone in the field. YANKEE PROMISE is in the 3rd race tonight. It's a good assignment, but she should definitely be considered sharp off this effort. So technically, this was the answer - since I mentioned that it would be relevant to tonight… but that wasn't fair.
Today's bonus question will look again at the closers,
this time on Sunday May 2 -- tell me which 2 horses who raced on that card
made the most significant closing efforts. Email
here