Before we get to yesterday's bonus question, some have already asked me to interpret the effort of YANKEE PROMISE last night. There are 3 interpretations of her effort. The first is that she was out of shape. Certainly, failing to win off of what looked like a live 2nd over trip could make one think that, but, the horse that won was a monster and the horse that finished 2nd was certainly eligible to improve off 2 qualifiers. Plus, the speed of the final half was pretty quick. My interpretation of the race is that she did not improve and may be reaching a sustained level for the current time. This happens with young horses. The seem to go in spurts - uping the ante, then consolidating at that level before making further improvement. But the long and short of it to me was that YANKEE PROMISE just could not go that fast right now - period.
Yesterday's bonus question was about Sunday May 2 -- tell me which 2 horses who raced on that card made the most significant closing efforts.
The 2 horses on this fair-bias afternoon were HEAD WIND in the 6th race, and DOCTOR LEE in the 9th. Again, the broad view of this day indicates a rather unusual configuration at the Meadowlands. If you look at the fractions of the races, you will see that the fasted portions of the races seemed to be the middle, which is highly unusual. The openers were somewhat faster than the closers. Races 6 and 8 stuck out as the 2 hardest races for the closers - both had considerably slow opening portions. Let's look:
M ,19990502,5,06 THE MEADOWLANDS RACE DATE: 05/02/1999
RACE: 06 TYPE: EARLY BETTING CLASS: nw7500L6cd GAIT: PACE
EVENT:
PURSE: 11,600 TRACK COND: FAST TIME: 0:29.0 - 0:57.3 - 1:26.0 - 1:53.4
-- TIME --
HORSE NAME POST 1/4 1/2 3/4 STRETCH FINISH ACTUAL LQ ODDS
LAUNCH CODE 8 2 1 1 1/2H 1/1Q 1:53.4 27.4 460
EXPRESS MILES 1 3 3 4 4/4H 2/1Q 1:54.0 27.2 *220
SLAM DUNK LOBELL 9 1p 2 2 2/2H 3/1H 1:54.0 27.3 1900
WESTERN SPIRIT 2 4 4p 3p 3/3 4/1H 1:54.0 27.3 820
HEAD WIND 5 7 8p 8p 8/9Q 5/4Q 1:54.3 27.1 730
FAHRVERGNUGEN 3 5 5p 5p 6/7T 6/4T 1:54.4 28 1090
ARMBRO ROADRUNNER 7 9 7 6 5/6T 7/5 1:54.4 27.4 1160
IRON GAVEL 4 6 6p 7pp 7/8Q 8/5H 1:54.4 27.4 630
ARMORED TRUCK 6 8 9 9 9/10H 9/6T 1:55.1 27.3 580
DRIVERS: L.R. OUELLETTE, C.R. MANZI, W.A. O'DONNELL, R.D. PIERCE,
R.S. SILVERMAN, J.G. MOISEYEV, D.S. MILLER, M. LACHANCE, J.P. SCHWIND
In this race Launch Code left hard, parked the #9 and retook and went on with it pretty much with nobody putting the heat on at any point. Western Spirit was poor cover, backing up the outside flow with HEADWIND 3rd over waiting and losing all chance behind that. Notice that from the stretch marker forward, HEADWIND's stretch gain on the leader was 5 lengths, far the best of anyone in the field in this fast last half with excess dead cover. Furthermore, his shape going into that race had been rated "Sharp". One might be inclined to also look at EXPRESS MILES in this race. He raced on a big dropdown, and was locked and shuffled a bit, losing ground before angling clear late and did have a nice burst of speed - but you had to be there to see that, though you could suspect it from the chart.
M ,19990502,5,09 THE MEADOWLANDS RACE DATE: 05/02/1999
RACE: 09 TYPE: EARLY BETTING CLASS: nw6500L6cd GAIT: TROT
EVENT:
PURSE: 9,500 TRACK COND: FAST TIME: 0:30.1 - 1:00.2 - 1:28.3 - 1:58.1
-- TIME --
HORSE NAME POST 1/4 1/2 3/4 STRETCH FINISH ACTUAL LQ ODDS
JC LITTLE LENA 6 1 1 1 1/H 1/1 1:58.1 29.3 970
CR GONE FISHIN 1 2 2 2p 2/H 2/1 1:58.2 29.4 *170
K D'S SHOW TIME 2 3 3 3 3/3H 3/2T 1:58.4 29.3 630
HOOTY AND THE FIS 4 5 4p 4p 4/3T 4/3Q 1:58.4 29.3 320
DOCTOR LEE 7 7 7 6pp 5/7T 5/4T 1:59.1 29.1 330
KINGS GESTURE 5 6 5p 5p 6X/13T 6/27 2:03.3 33.4 1260
OPAL NOIR 3 4 6 7 7/21T 7/31 2:04.2 33.4 6740
A SONG FOR JENNY 8X 8 8 PU / DNF/ 1680
CHIVE SCRATCHED
BAZIRE SCRATCHED
DRIVERS: J.G. MOISEYEV, R.D. ALLEN, L.R. OUELLETTE, M. LACHANCE,
P. HENRIKSEN, J.F. MARSHALL III, R.S. SILVERMAN, D.S. MILLER,
SCRATCHED, SCRATCHED
Race 9 was another event where the matter was decided early. The winner, JC LITTLE LENA was on our Gold Club list, and, with the scratches of the only other 2 in-shape horses, became the solid win play, going wire to wire at odds of nearly 10-1 - and I did not complain about the "boat race". Notice the effort of DOCTOR LEE. Hooty and the Fish was actually the weak first over horse most of the mile here, plugging up the flow and forcing DOCTOR LEE 3 wide before the turn - this is important as it means he went even more extra ground coming for home. Notice the stretch gain on DOCTOR LEE - 3 lengths once straightened away, by far the big gainer in the fast final half. Also notice that the 3rd quarter was the fast part, and the 3-deep move during that time is what makes this something to look at.
NOTICE ---- I AM NOT GOING TO POST ANY ANALYSIS TONIGHT -- I WILL USE THIS AS MY WAY OF SHARING THOUGHTS WITH YOU.
Racing tonight are a couple of horses which we mentioned this week …but a couple of notes - as YANKEE PROMISE did not race particularly well last night, another horse we looked at in that race was VARBO - she is in tonight from the 10-hole, and based on this, I would lay low here. FEDERAL YANKEE is also in, but that is with Moni Maker, who gets the rail (needs that like another ass hole), so save your money. TIMELINE was an effective user which we mentioned a couple of days ago - in the 4th - 7/2 on the morning line and you might want to review that chart again. Also in that race is EASY SMILE who's middle half move we looked at … also CHARLIE SCOOTER - all of these out of the same race - could make things interesting for the likely favorite if that one falters at all. In Race 6, though I did not highlight it, you might want to give a look at April 30, Race 5 - PETER V was in shape off his prior race, and came weaving in between a wall of horses - see what you think there. For Race 8, I did not mention this in the chart follow-ups, because it is not something from this past week, but be aware here that COSMIC SIGN was a no-go and was buried from the word go last week and meets a suspect bunch from the rail. Pay attention to Race 10 tonight, because it could give you a chance to parlay a fraction-chart observation - HARLEY DAVID and MY PRIMA-VERA were both use very hard and effectively in the opening stages of the 11th race last Friday (April 30) - both fell apart and both can be excused and considered sharp - see how they race because in 11th race tonight, HUMOUR BOURG (2-1 morning line) is in that, and it might give you an indication as to the reliability of that race.
Finally … and I only missed the $200 win ticket on this one because
I was busy for a couple of days, and didn't look at the program that carefully
to see if anyone else was in other than my chart horses … SS SAND DOLLAR
- he pulled this same shit last year, shipping in for Poliseno and catching
everyone by surprise 3 weeks in a row. He's not the fasted animal in here,
but I wouldn't ignore him no matter how bad he looks. Truthfully, this
assignment looks tough, though.