Many handicappers consider "class" to be one of the major factors in support of their selections. How many times have we heard someone say, "Harry Hanover is the class of the race," or "Harry Hanover is dropping down in class?"
Their seems to be a predominant feeling that a horse that drops "in class" automatically has some kind of automatic advantage over his competition at tonight’s level. If this be heresy, let me tell you that, by and large, it’s not true. Not true, at least, in the way they are saying it. Personally, I have a bias toward horses who are moving up in "class" versus those who are moving down in "class." By now, those readers who have listened to what I’ve said probably have an idea why, but I’ll point it out later.
For now, let me debunk a couple of myths and misunderstandings. The first is the whole notion that there is some horse who is the "class of the race." Horses are horses. They have no class in and of themselves. They have a certain ability level, and at any point, they are capable (depending on their current shape) of utilizing some percentage of it. When they are sharp, they can use very much or all of it; the same horse, when out of shape, can use much less of his potential. We’ve all seen hundreds of cases where a certain horse is not competitive at a certain level one week, but 6 weeks later, is a dominant force at that same level. Has the horse’s "class" changed? NO!!! His shape has changed, and as we all know now, shape is the most important factor. "Class" implies permanence, while shape is temporary and varies, usually moving up and down in rhythmic cycles.
There are various crutches that I’ve seen used over the years as handicappers try to identify the "class" of the horses in the race. Let’s look at them:
1. The "condition" or "claiming price" of the race - of all the various crutches, I guess this one comes the closest to being useful, though it is rarely what it seems, and is very dangerous to use. Under this definition of class, a horse is moving down if, say, he is running in a $6,000 claimer tonight and ran in an $8,000 claimer last week. Now think about it, what has really happened? The owners decided that they’ll take $2,000 less for the horse this week, that’s what happened! Similarly, when a horse runs in a "nw $7500 last 7" last week, and runs in a "nw $6000 last 7" this week, we say he’s coming down in class. That is, we ASSUME that he’s facing a weaker field this week than he did last week. But is that necessarily true?
Let’s say there are 7 other horses in the race each week. Here’s what the fields looked like:
8,000 clm 6,000 clm
last week this week
poor shape very good shape
poor shape very good shape
medium shape good shape
poor shape can’t tell
good shape good shape
can’t tell medium
poor shape good shape
Clearly, though the race last week was a higher claiming price, if our horse came out of that race into tonight’s 6,000 claimer, I’d argue that he is not dropping at all, but rather, is running against a field that is in better shape than last week’s, and is actually moving up! In my book, it’s not merely the title of the race that matters, but the relative shape of the fields that matters most!
Most horses who are coming "down in class" are bet down well below the odds which they deserve based on their shape. And why are horses forced to drop down (or rather, why do the owners drop them)? Well, simple: they couldn’t win or get checks in the higher class, that’s why! And why weren’t they competitive in the higher classes? Possibly, they had a succession of poor posts. Possibly, they had a giant dose of bad racing luck. Could be that they just had a lousy driver or got lousy drives. They could have been ill, injured, or lame. Yea, I guess these could all be so, but I’ll tell ya what I notice most - most aren’t doing well because they simply are not in shape. And some people actually find this appealing as an angle for which to place a bet! They should have their heads examined!
In fact, I have a natural bias toward horses who are moving up in class, not moving down! Why? Well, let’s do the same logic … why has a horse moved up the class ladder? Because he’s winning or doing very well in the lower classes. Why? Could be he was just lucky, but odds are, he’s in shape!! From my observation, the vast majority of horses who are moved up in class are in shape, the vast majority who keep dropping down are in sub-par shape.
So I don’t pay too much attention to the "title" of the race, unless the difference is so vast as to move a horse to a level where the overall ability level of the new horses are so different, that the horse’s shape doesn’t matter. This can happen. But when it does, the ability difference is so obvious that there isn’t a good opportunity to make money. The real opportunity lies in knowing the strengths of the horses previous opponents (primarily by shape), and how this compares to his competition tonight.
There is one type of situation where I pay attention to a horse dropping down and the types of races that he has been running in. This is in the conditioned races where, a horse may earn his way into a class where he is only marginally competitive. Sometimes, after this is obvious to his connections, they realize that even if they get a 4th or 5th, they will have to stay in the current conditions (nw 12,000, for example). But if they rest the horse, and throw in a couple of "clunkers," the earnings from those previous races will now drop off the horses card (will no longer be in their last 7 starts) and all of a sudden, the horse qualifies for nw 6,500! Not only that, even if they win the first time in that class, more earnings drop off, so they may have a free ride for 2 or 3 weeks in the lower class before having to move back up. This is something that I am aware of when I see what looks like a sudden, lackluster performance before a drop-down in conditioned level. Not to question the motivations of any of the entries (we wouldn't want to do that, would we?), but this is often something you can spot in advance, and anticipate the dull, no-try effort immediately prior to the drop down in conditions. I have caught many horses who seemed like they were starting to perk up a bit, but I noticed that if they somehow manage to finish 6th or worse, they'll go down 3 conditioned levels for at least 2 weeks, and I laid off them in the current race, then got on them the following week after what seemed like a miserable race.
2. Looking at the horse’s mark for this year, last year or lifetime is often used as an indication of class, by many. Again, this is useless and can be safely ignored. Unless you are just plain curious, you need not pay any attention to this number. After all, what does it tell you about the horse’s current shape? Nothing. Additionally, you don’t know what the horse did during that race, what the track condition was that night, etc. In fact, final times in general are an over-used crutch, when in fact they are usually not relevant at all. The only time that I even look at final times is if a horse is shipping in from out of town, and I want to get a general idea as to whether he "fits" with the current competition.
3. Another nice one that I hear many experts and public handicappers talk about is the money won. Who gives a hoot??? Maybe the horse won some kind of Sires Stakes event and picked up a good purse. Maybe he finished 5th in a few higher pursed events. Often, a smart stable can place their horse properly so that they can continue to pick up checks (3rds, 4ths and 5ths). I’m betting to win guys - what’s this got to do with my $200 win ticket? Let’s get real folks --- it don’t tell ya nuttin about his current shape, so you don’t give a damn.
4. Looking way back in the program, and seeing the names of horses that are familiar to you as "good horses." More of the same! I constantly hear people saying, "look, he was running against Nihilator and Jenna’s Beach Boy and Riyad." He finished 8th , never left the cones and was never within 20 lengths of the lead - I don’t care if he was running against Ben Hurr - it don’t matter.
5. Reminiscing about the "good ole days," by giving the horse who used to be in the open, some kind of extra credit for his past accomplishments. Hey dude - he’s a $3,000 claimer now - let’s get with it! Horses don’t say to themselves, "Gee…this is a 3 claimer… I used to run in winners over $15,000." Horses don’t read the program, and don’t remember what class they used to run in. This may be a surprise to some of you, but…..go with me on this one, okay?….stretch your imagination!
In short, the best way to become an expert on "class" and to use this to your advantage, is to look at your programs carefully, save them if you want, and know what shape of the fields a horse has run against, and what his shape was at those times, and compare these to his competition.