This is a good time to spend a couple of minutes, summarize what we said last week and this week in Handicapping Corner, and see how the two interrelate and how we can combine the two into a comprehensive strategy:

Last week, in "Of Streaks and Such" I stressed the importance of being aware of any underlying assumptions you are making for the purposes of enhancing results if you are right, and lessening losses if you are wrong. This week, we examined the topic of bias in a bit more detail, and how powerful that can be.

As this Friday approaches, we have the opportunity to use some of the observations we made. So, I am entering this racing weekend with an underlying assumption, namely: The track on Saturday February 7, 1997 was difficult on the front runners. So I am going to adjust some of my thoughts about these races upcoming. The effect of some of the closers will be under-emphasized, while the performances of some of the front runners will be more emphasized.

Now what if I am wrong. I could be. Maybe my assumption is wrong. I'm going to keep an eye out to see how these horses race. If last week's front-runners seem to be less than I expect, I am going to understand that I have this assumption under there, and I am not going to stick with it to the death if circumstances start to prove me wrong. I might be able to head off a losing streak right at the pass.

On the other hand, if circumstances show that I was right, I can leverage this with good aggressive betting, maybe even taking a closer look at other horses who might be affected by it.

So keep this in mind - be aware of what you are thinking underneath - what assumptions and angles you are focusing in on or emphasizing as the weekend cards come out and you start to look at shape.