Handicapping Corner

with Steve M.

COOL STREAK MANAGEMENT
Some ideas on how to survive when you are zigging and they are zagging.

 

 

This edition was spurred on by a comment that was made by a friend, who recapped his evening a couple of weeks ago…. When asked how he did, he replied, " well, I lost on this race, and that race, etc., etc., but I got even in the 12th on so and so!" And someone else asked me what I thought about that.

The answer is…. I like it! Sure is better than losing. Just kidding.

But, the money management issue is relevant to me right now, since, admittedly, I have not exactly been on fire since the Meadowlands meet started. Granted, I have not been nearly as active as I have been in winters past, thanks to the lousy weekday cards. Also, because of vacation, tennis tournaments, and other family commitments, I have not been to the track itself nearly as much as I would ordinarily -- I have missed 4 of the last 5 Saturday nights, for example. And while I do bet on key horses with my phone account, I rarely bet much via phone - I prefer to be there to make any sizeable wagers.

But, even though I have been zigging a bit while they have been zagging, I have still managed to be ahead so far. Additionally, there were a couple of nights which would have been HUGE nights had I been there, but, such is life. Now, how have I come out ahead so far, and what have I done with my betting during this period?

Well, first let's throw out the one GIGANTIC night which I had, and the other SEMI-GIGANTIC night. Let's just toss them and look at the rest. While I have not felt things going my way, I have allocated an inordinately large percentage of my bets on key horses to the WIN, and much less toward the exactas, and very little to the trifectas. I am still using the pick-3, but I am NOT doubling up on the pick-3 and betting the race itself much.

In short, I am simplifying my betting. By doing this, I have been able to avoid losing a bunch, and have actually come home a moderate winner on quite a few occasions this year, based on 1 win bet at overlaid odds. An excellent example of this was Canaco Harold the Saturday before that, where the heavy win bet got me enough to more than pay for the evening.

When you are a bit cool, it always seems like the night you cannot get to the track is the night that your horses win and pay good prices - and when you are there, they either go off as chalk, or you go off them. The other night, I had $20 win on PARTY PERSON who paid $70 to win. This is a small bet for me - it was just a "token" type of bet. My other key horse in that race finished 3rd. Truthfully, had I been there, I would have caught the trifecta for $12K grand. But I was not there - I was here. Friday night I was there. And I felt a bit cold. In the race where DREAMLAND'S ONYVA paid $38, instead, I chose to make an alternative wager - a 3-horse exacta box. Boy, what bad luck!

But the truth is that this type of luck kind of balances itself out. After all, there have been several Saturday evenings so far this meet where I was quite lucky that I was here, and not there. So I have learned not to bitch and complain about that sort of stuff.

So, when you feel that you are a bit cold. If you feel a bit snakebitten - getting bad prices, bad trips, a lot of seconds, whatever - I recommend the following ideas just to keep yourself on an even keel emotionally until you get back in synch:

1. SIMPLIFY - this is the perfect time to get back to some basic win betting, or maybe win-show combinations until you feel your confidence coming back.
2. BOX DON'T WHEEL - in exactas, consider a 3 or 4 horse box versus wheeling or part wheeling one horse on top. Often times, you find that during cold streaks, you might be torn between 2 horses as for whom to key on. Boxing here can take a bit of the stress out of the equation, and again, it is a simpler wager.
3. DON'T TRY TO WIN IT ALL ON ONE RACE - this means you don't increase your wagers as the night goes on. You don't try to bang the cold chalk exacta in the last 2 races with a $20 exacta or exacta box, when you usually bet $10 per race. And for god's sake, don't look at the trifectas as a way of trying to make it all at once. Pick-3's are a much more effective wager. This past Friday, for example, little cold Steve wasn't betting a whole lot, but had gone over the charts for Los Alamitos, and saw horses that were running in 2 races, with a 3rd race sandwiched in between - a short 6 horse field. So I went ALL with that race for half my usual wager, and played a bit extra on 4 of the horses. Would ya know it - one of the other 2 came in and, despite having favorites on both ends of the pick-3, the 8-1 shot in the middle made the ticket worth over $200! That got me even, and up a little for the whole night.
4. BE CAREFUL NOT TOO WAGER TOO MUCH BY DOUBLING UP AND GOING FOR THE KILL - when you are a bit cold, and you have bet the pick-3 and are alive with 2 horses in the final leg, that is the perfect time to sit tight. You already have a bet on this race. If you win, you are going to be happy anyway. Why put more pressure on yourself at a time when you are emotionally not all that well prepared to handle it? Same with the opening leg of a pick-3 wager. Play it conservative. Don't utilize your whole betting unit on the pick-3, and then bet the whole amount again on that race. Keep the pressure down … be invested if it is a race you should be betting, but choose one way of betting or another. Same with the Daily Doubles. Worry about one thing at a time to help get your hands hot again. Either bet the first race for real, or bet the double - don't do both - that's for when you have a feel that you are ZIGGING and that you've got things going your way. THAT is the time to leverage.
5. DON'T TRY TO GET EVEN IN ONE RACE - but if you do - allow it to happen. In other words, if you should be fortunate to get yourself even or ahead a bit on one bet, late in the evening, don't pile on and give it all back. Again, that is for when you are HOT. When you are COLD, feel good that you have managed to reduce your losses or squeak out a profit, and GET THE HELL OUT OF THERE.
6. TAKE A VACATION - forget about the fucking horses for a week or so. Ask a friend to save the charts and email them to you when you ask. Then don't look at the stuff. Do something else fun to refresh yourself. It is important - everyone needs a periodic vacation from this stuff to freshen up. You get stale. But the key is this: When you take a self-imposed vacation, you CANNOT look at the results. Otherwise, you will inevitably see winning horses that you THINK that you would have bet, and you will be sorry that you gave yourself the time off. Instead, pretend that racing does not exist for a week or so. It can really help your energy, your focus and your frame of mind.
7. TRY A DIFFERENT TRACK - for those of you who simply cannot take a vacation, then take a vacation from your regular track, and bet less. If you usually bet the Meadowlands, take a break from that and look at Balmoral or The Meadows for a couple of weeks. It changes your perspective. Looking at totally new horses frees you up from a lot of preconceptions that you might have about which horses you LIKE and which one's you DON'T LIKE at your usual track. Also, sometimes, you might be having trouble because of the types of horses that are winning right now, or some basic assumptions that you have made are not right. In this case, without even knowing it, you are compounding your same errors week after week after week (such as betting on AT POINT BLANK week after week after week). By stepping back, you can allow whatever is holding you back to run its course.
8. IF WORSE COMES TO WORSE, YOU CAN ALWAYS EMAIL STEVE AND WHINE - hey, let me tell ya something - as bad as you think you have it, I have been through it. I have seen just about everything. If you need someone to listen to you and you need someone to vent with, then by all means, communicate. AS LONG AS YOU ACCEPT RESPONSIBILITY and don't blame. The minute you start blaming other people, including me, I will not welcome your mail. But other than that, it's nice to have a friendly ear from time to time.

 

Those of you who have followed this website over the past 2 years may have become a bit spoiled. There are some of you out there who never even imagined that I could be cool for more than a night or two. But it happens to everyone, including me. The key is to minimize the damage when you are not hot. These are some basic ideas to work with.

"Say young man - before you go I've got a question for you on all this zigging and zagging stuff"

"Yes Harry, fire away"

"What if my zigging and their zagging goes on for a longer period of time, what then?"

"How long d'ya mean Harry old boy?"

"Hmmm … about 2 years now"

"Get a new hobby!"

 

Good Luck!

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