Got an interesting email from Ron, who says:

I agree that a shape horse going up in class most oftem offers a prime betting opportunity for the race investor. Especially when the jump in class is really not that significant. My one exception is nw $15,000 at the Big M. This class is a magnet for high-class claimers, winners over and open class horses looking for a purse. It has been a gold mine for me, providing consistent prime bets and good ROI. This past Sat. May 6 is a perfect example. The 8th race showed At Point Blank with two nice tighteners, speed on 4-21 and a good first over tough trip against top competition 4-28. I love to see lines like this and they usually mean the horse is on the improve. Coupled with a dramatic class drop I rated this a prime play. Looking for a playable exacta I settled on Sign of Success another who had raced against better and showed a good race against a tough Turbo Fired. I felt both Survivor Vision and Greenwich were off their top form and did not see much competition to my play. The resulting $6.80 win price was a pleasant surprise, especially as I has not crazy over the exotic possibilities. The $63.40 exacta brought smiles to my face and the nose finish not a concern as I had the exacta boxed. Study those nw $15,000 races

Ron feels that the nw15000 class at the Meadowlands is often a place where you can find meaningful class droppers.

What I've noticed is that, at any track, you will find 2 classes where these scenarios unfold. As you know, I focus on shape, but as you know, there are many factors. As for the horse itself, there is shape, and there is ability ... and you will always find 2 classes at a track where sometimes, there can be an odd mix such that superior ability can consistently win out over shape.

These two classes are:
1)At major tracks - the highest conditioned class and the lowest claiming class.
2)At second-tier tracks - the highest claiming class and the lowest conditioned class.

In order to fully understand this, you have to understand a little about the micro economies of the track. Let's first look at the first-tier track, like the Meadowlands. The bread and butter of this type of track is the higher-caliber animal. This is what they are trying to attract, and as a result, they get the best owners, the best trainers and, by and large, the best horses. However, if all they carded there was $40,000 claimers and up and high-level conditioned animals, they would fast run out of horses. In order to keep the horseman, the trainers, grooms and drivers happy and active … in order to keep their economy going … they need to also have a place where these horsemen can race their lesser stock. So they offer things like $15,000 claiming. By and large, this class is populated by horses who probably aren't $15,000 claimers - in terms of ability. If you don't believe this, go see what happens when a $15,000 claimer from the Meadowlands ships out and takes on $15,000 claimers at a smaller track - say Pocono. What happens? They get the crap kicked out of them consistently. But the first-tier track will always have enough of these races so as to keep the all the horsemen and track employees busy. It keeps the money flowing, keeps people happy and busy. It's good business.

Now take a look at the lower-tier track. Their bread and butter is the lower caliber animals. They cater to these horsemen. But even these horsemen have some stock which is legitimately better than the type of animal that the track generally caters to. So this track has to do the same thing - they need to keep everyone busy and moving, and keep the horsemen happy. The need to give them some races where they can run for real purse money and make their keep. So they have some classes, usually the top claiming class, which allows for a spot for the horsemen to race these animals there, rather than shipping them out.

When you watch a small track, and see the highest claiming level or their "open", watch what happens when an outsider who does not keep much stock at that track, ships a horse in. Watch how protective they get about their purse. They hate when somebody who is NOT part of this track's mini economy ships in to take their purse money. They defend this purse vigorously, often ganging up on and doing in the invader with all kinds of chicanery (insane paces, traffic cop cover, gappers, walls of horses, etc.) I always try to keep a healthy approach to this sport, but even I have to ask the question,"Can you blame them?" If I were one of them, I might do the very same thing.

What you notice is this: When conditioned animals from the lower-tier track face horses (conditioned or claiming) from the first-tier track, they often are at a hopeless deficit in ability. Often, no matter how sharp they are, this ability deficit does them in.

When the high level claimers from the lower-tier track face off against the lower level claimers from the first-tier track, they often have an ability edge which makes them much more successful than you would imagine.

And this also manifests itself within a given track. At the lower-tier track, the lowest conditioned animals are often even poorer than the worst claimers on the grounds. They rarely have a legitimate chance against another horse dropping down who looks even close in terms of shape. The higher claimers there are often very successful when they get the opportunity to drop into a conditioned race as they often have a similar ability edge - often enough to counteract whatever shape deficit.

At the large track, you find the same thing. This time, it's the low claimers to get the shaft. $15,000 claimers at the Meadowlands really don't seem to climb anywhere. No matter how sharp they seem, when someone gets the bright idea that they don't want to lose the horse, and moves the animal into a conditioned level, generally, they get chewed up like midget hot dogs at a wedding reception. That's because that whole class is a convenience. Sure there are exceptions, but I'm just talking about things in general.

You can get a similar effect with the top of the conditioned ranks, and the "what moron wants to spend $250,000" claiming level. Many of these horses race in the open or series races when they have them. They're not really claimers. Just because some rich owner who has too much money on his hands decides to dip in and claim, doesn't make them claimers. They are open horses. Similarly here, you can find animals who have enough of an ability edge under the right conditions such that even though they might not be the sharpest, they can assert this advantage.

Now before I finish, I know there are some wise guys out there who are saying: "Yeah Steve … if the $15,000 - $20,000 claimers at Pocono are really better than the ones at the Meadowlands, how come we don't see more trainers just going over there, claiming, then bringing them to the Meadowlands and scoring? At the risk of being politically incorrect, here's my answer - one hand washed the other and both hands wash the face. Pocono is in proximity to the Meadowlands. There are owners and trainers who race in both places. The trainers here never know when they are going to need a hand from the guys at Poke. Maybe you have a promising young one that isn't quite ready, or that you are bringing along slowly. You need some softer spots for the horse while it learns and develops. Say you have a Pennsylvania bred who might race there in Sires Stakes? Maybe you have an animal who has had some time off and you want to get it a couple of races? There are plenty of reasons why you might race there. The trainers from the Big M need these guys on their side. They can't piss the people at Pocono off. How? BY STEALING ONE OF THEIR MEAL TICKETS - THAT'S HOW. If they do that, it's going to come back to haunt them when they need to have a horse raced there. How would you feel if you had a young one who raced there, and the driver cooked the horse and put a crimp in him because your trainer went in and took his, or his friends meal ticket? Don't you think this doesn't happen. So that's why you don't see Meadowlands trainers going in and raiding the 15 claimers at Pocono - CUZ THEY DON'T WANNA GET FUCKED WHEN THEY NEED TO RACE THERE. Of course, this is my opinion.

As for Ron's horse mentioned above - AT POINT BLANK, I will say one thing. Class drop, no class drop, class rise, no matter. The fact is that this horse demonstrated that he was IN SHAPE with his effective usage during a key middle half the prior week. In this case, class really did NOT matter.