This is the first in an ongoing series entitled "Recognizing and Anticipating Shape Cycles." Those viewers who have been with us for a while have seen me point out that certain horses followed certain patterns in prior seasons, and that the same shape pattern was emerging again now - the most recent case being BEACH ACTION this week, who paid $25.

Let me make no mistake about it - the most important skill - the main course on the menu of the "Shape Café" is recognizing current sharpness as it has already been manifest by performances that are recent and on the program. At the Meadowlands, particularly on weekends, if you are reasonably disciplined, you can get enough in-shape overlays at good prices. Some of the great prices are like a great wine with the meal - they come from making an educated guess about horses whose shape may be developing, or others whose shape may be deteriorating, BEFORE it is obvious to everyone on the program.

If you cannot do the first, then learning the next skill is kind of like concentrating on the wine, not the main course. But it is a powerful addition to the shape-handicapper’s arsenal.

The chart below is a pictorial representation of what might be seasonal shape cycle for a particular horse. It contains 33 races. The green areas are times when the horse is what we call "sharp". The red areas are when the horse is what we call "out-of-shape" or "in poor form." The black are the times when the horse is something else - call it what you want … "okay", "average", "medium", "not that bad", "so-so", "not that good", etc. I call it average.

You’ll notice that this horse (who is hypothetical) starts his season in poor form for the first 4 races, gradually improving in outings 3 & 4. Races 5-8, he does seemingly what is expected of him, with the 8th race showing some change in character. Races 9-14 he races in good shape, gradually tailing off a bit. Again, does the expected in races 15-17, throws in a couple of good ones in races 18-21, though the 21 has a noticeable change in character. Races 22-24, he seems to get along okay. By race 25, he is doing less than expected for 25-27. Then throws in a couple of decent ones, races 28-29. Stinks up the joint for races 30-32 and takes his vacation.

This horse was rated the following: Poor Shape = 10 races, Average = 14 races, Good=9 races. This is as it should be. Average is how the horse is MOST OF THE TIME. What type of time, moves, fractions, stamina, etc. is average for Red Bow Tie is different than what is average for, Wuzzup. But most of time, Red Bow Tie is average - for him.

The best time to bet on a horse, is when he is in his or her "Green" area, particularly, the beginning of the green area, as this is when the horse is most likely to be racing at a reduced level, either claiming or conditions, and when he is most able to directly translate his enhanced shape into a win.

The worst time to bet on a horse is when he is in his "Red" area, particularly the beginning of the red area, as this is when the horse is still racing at an elevated level, either in claiming or conditions, and is most vulnerable and least able to translate his efforts, even good trips, into wins.

What happens in the "Black" areas, is catch-as-catch-can. At times, they can be elevated, other times reduced in terms of the overall ability level of their competition. If the shape level of that competition is suspect, they can win. If they get good trips, they can win. And the flip side is also true. If they get a series of good post positions at this time, or if they draw into fields which match their most effective racing style, they can win. On the flip side, if they draw poorly, or draw fields which do not enhance their racing style, they do not win.

This is the significant difference in the black (or average) area and the green(or in-shape) area. When a decent horse is truly in his green area, he will be doing more than expected, and you will find that he will be able to overcome circumstances that would otherwise doom his chances. The closer who is truly in his green area, doesn’t need to have a blistering early pace with a viscous speed duel and good, live cover and tiring leaders in order to prevail. Even if the last part of the race is the fastest, unless poor racing luck befalls him, he can frequently still have a good shot at it. It is when he moves into his black (average) area, that he starts to need more factors in his favor, where more things have to go his way.

Similar with a front runner. A front runner does not have to be in good shape to win, if he is allowed to get the front relatively easily, get little pressure, can back down the pace and turn it into a sprint. A front-runner who is truly in his green(in-shape) area does not need this. He can battle for the lead, make moves to retake the lead, he can fend off a stiff challenge, he can go a brisk first half or middle half, and still have a good shot at hanging on.

So there is a definite skill which can be developed for recognizing what this chart might look like for various horses, remembering it, and using this to anticipate when form reversals have taken place. The key spots that you need to be able to recognize are what I call the "Change of Character" races (or COCs). These often are the first indication you get, that a horse’s shape is starting to change.

Let’s take a look at one who is currently in tonight, Friday February 20, 1998, namely Left Hand Man. I call this little scenario, "DEATH OF A CLOSER":

What I’ve done here, in my usual crude sort of way, is assemble all of LHM’s races since mid-November, and lay them out as though they were one, long program. Now let’s take a look at this real fast, and see if we can find the COC race (you should take time right now, and see which race you think is the COC before continuing).

11/22 - was a positive COC - here, he was used very hard and effectively in the first and middle halves of this race, which were the fastest parts of the race, and did better than you would expect in the stretch, so he entered his Green Area.

11/29 - he continues in-shape, closing very well from far back, despite the fact that the final half of the race was the quickest portion.

12/6 - the crowd has not yet caught on as he goes off at 3-1 from the rail, gets a nice pocket trip and scores, again, making his move at the fastest fractions of the race.

12/13 - the crowd makes a critical error, discounting the previous race as an "easy trip" despite the fact that he was already in shape, still does not believe him letting him off razor sharp from the 4-hole at 4-1, as he scores again easily, from off the pace.

12/26 - finally the crowd has come to it’s senses, arriving just in time for his negative COC race, betting him down to 5-2. He is parked the whole mile, with cover, the fractions are insane for both first and middle halves, and they slow down to a crawl for the final half, and he rallies, but cannot really threaten. (I really feel bad for all those people who finally decided to bet on him this night - they really deserve better). This was a distinct change in character. This closer, who previously was able to overcome ever-quickening fractions coming home, here, was unable to score as they were slowing to a halt.

1/2/98 - not realizing that the last race was of a totally different character than LHM’s previous 4 races, the crowd really piles on now, betting him down to 8-5 from the 7 hole! Once again, despite the first half being the fastest portion, with slower middle and final halves, he is unable to get there in the lane.

1/9 - again, not realizing that this was 2 races in a row where this horse clearly did not do what would have been expected of him if he were sharp, they proceed to jump on him once more, making him the favorite again at 2-1. This was a real heartbreaker for the crowd of brainless boneheads who bet on him, because it was a near miss - but a miss, nevertheless. And again, the trip was set up, and the final half was substantially slower than the first, so what was his excuse now? In double Jeopardy, the proper response is: "What is poor shape, Alex". And the tip-off came not on this race, not the one before that, but 3 races ago! As often happens, the crowd arrives just at the peak and had missed the prime betting opportunity on this horse!

1/16 - alas, the crowd, still feeling that these last 3 races were some kind of fluke, hammer him down to 4-5! But at this point, he has clearly gone from his Green, through his Black and now is on his way into the Red, or "out-of-shape" zone! He gets shuffled back … ooooooooooooo…. Then fool’s ‘em with some late pace … oooooo again …..and nobody noticed that the last half was again, much slower than the opening portions of the race. This late move into the very slow pace suckers enough of them in for next time, when, on

1/23 - they still cannot let go of him, giving him solid support from an outside post, 5-1, and again, despite cover and without a fast last portion, he not only can’t gain, he actually fades!

1/30 - mistaking that fade as some kind of "false positive" they give him even more support, this time at 4-1, and despite cover and even fractions, he is unable to gain.

2/7 - still not recognizing that he has virtually no chance of winning without a mishap, he is still steadily supported at 6-1 when, despite cover and a slow final half, he can not gain an inch.

2/13 - alas, they still do not believe that he is in absolute crappy form, they throw more money at him, again, giving him solid support at 6-1, where, despite a pocket trip and a slow final panel, he disappears LIKE A FART IN A BREEZE!

Well, tonight he has the 9-hole, and I expect full capitulation at this point. I expect that the crowd will finally go off of him, and I await a positive change of character to give us the clue, that his shape curve has bottomed, and that he is on his way back to form.

By the time this happens, people should be so disgusted at all the money they chucked down the toilet on this one, that they will be hesitant to bet on him for fear he will burn them again, and at that point, he will be a GREAT VALUE PLAY and will score at big overlay odds.

If there’s one saying that fits the bill with shape cycles of closers, it would be this:

So let’s keep our eyes peeled for signs of life!!