Well, in my introduction to this site, I told you we would be offending everyone equally, including other handicappers! Well, I’m not looking to offend, but it’s time to start debunking some of the bullshit out there that passes for handicapping.

In a previous article on another web site, a "very prominent" handicapper makes the following statement:

"When you handicap most fields of top-level racehorses, no matter what the track you are studying, you are probably going to find a fist-full of in-form horses, any one of which could win if the circumstances were right. Instead of trying to "smoke out" an in-form horse (since almost all of them are), smart handicappers try to figure out what the "right circumstances"are likely to be for tonight's event."

In here, the author implies that, when you get to a certain level, "shape" (or "form" as he calls it) become less relevant.

Oh, gosh --- that’s what I’ve been doing wrong! I was wondering what I was doing wrong - I knew there had to be something fundamentally flawed about my approach - after all, I am AHEAD FOR LIFE at this game – I knew there was something wrong I was doing, and now I know - I’VE BEEN WASTING ALL THIS TIME TRYING TO FIND "IN-SHAPE" HORSES and winning, when I could have been doing something else, and …..oh never mind.

Suffice to say that I could not disagree more strongly. True, I like Saturday nights at most tracks because the handle is larger, there is more recreational money in the pool and the racing is more competitive with more in-shape horses, thereby creating value.

However, the author here is making what this handicapper believes is one of the most crucial, basic errors in thinking that one can make; namely, he is confusing "a fast horse" with an "in-shape" horse. Yes indeed, all of the horses on a Saturday night card at the Meadowlands are usually very talented, have a lot of ability and are very fast as horses go. But this has nothing to do with their shape. Shape, as we know, is relative. It relates how well a given horse is racing when compared to his ability and compared to what we would expect, given his ability level.

The author urges us not to "smoke out" an in-shape horse, and points us to the 8th race on January 24, 1998 at the Meadowlands. So, being foolhardy, stubborn and "un-smart" handicappers (as he would imply), just for kicks (not because it could ever be useful or anything), let’s take a look at that race from a shape perspective, and forget about all the "right circumstance" baloney.

If you don’t have a copy of the program, download it HERE. Please get it in front of you, and let’s follow along together, okay. Oh heck, maybe we’ll stumble on something, who knows.

MASTER LAWRENCE was coming in off 2 consecutive first-over scores and had to be considered in-shape.
CA CONNECTION, as we pointed out, was clearly not responding in the manner we would expect from this one when it is sharp and was rated out-of-shape
ROCKAPELLA had made a nice front-end try in last, but was facing significantly better on this night … had a good trip 2 back against weaker and couldn’t make it pay in a relatively slow final panel, but I would have given him the benefit of the doubt.
MAGNIFICENT clearly should have needed a start.
BAD BERT charged home from off the pace in his last two, taking advantage of a lot of action and very fast pace, and really should have closed in, as he did - nothing earth shaking here.
MASTER MILES, as we had noted, clearly was unable to parlay back to back good trips 2 and 3 back and was tailing off somewhat. Being parked in his last was nice, but remember, ONLY IN-SHAPE HORSES ARE ENTITLED TO EXCUSES.
SOLAR GALAXY had closed sharply 2 back in his 2nd start back after layoff, and had traffic problems in his last, and was getting a significant driver change from S. Smith to M. LaChance, and could have been called in-shape, depending on your viewpoint and whether or not you saw his last.
HAUCKULES, scored in his first start on the track, next start was deceptive in that even though he had the 2-hole, the winner there was a killer who had no pressure, and the last half was exceptionally fast (relative to the first and middle halves) for that evening, so he could not have been faulted for not going by the winner - so he was still in shape, and his last was excusable, for even though the last half was slow, he was in an impossible spot and, IF YOU LOOK AT THE CHART OF THIS RACE, you will see that it was HE who was closing fastest of all, NOT Bad Bert. So he was in shape.

Now, I went with Master Lawrence on top - and he was first over and obviously, as we noted, out of breath even at the half indicating something wrong (which was confirmed by his absence the next week, by the way, as we predicted). And therefore, I lost.

But the point here is that even with the top horses, shape DOES matter. True, the variations in their shape are less obvious than with lesser horses, and it takes a more careful look to discern the changes in shape. And another true statement would be that few of them are OUT OF SHAPE. Those that are not at their sharpest, are usually in some sort of middle or average state. They are not, as the author suggests, ALL in shape. They are ALL fast, and they can all win under certain conditions, but those that are truly nearest the top of their own shape cycles are often the best able to deal with the variety of conditions that might arise in the race.

The results of this race were as follows:
PURSE: 35,000 TRACK COND: FAST TIME: 0:27.2 - 0:56.3 - 1:25.2 - 1:52.3
-- TIME --
HORSE NAME OST 1/4 1/2 3/4 STRETCH FINISH ACTUAL LQ ODDS
HAUCKULES 8 1p 1 1 1/1T 1/NK 1:52.3 27.1 450
SOLAR GALAXY 7 8 5p 5pp 3/3Q 2/NK 1:52.3 26.3 *220
MASTER MILES 6 2 2 2 2/1T 3/H 1:52.3 27 1250
BAD BERT 5 7 7p 7p 6/4Q 4/T 1:52.4 26.3 260
MASTER LAWRENCE 1 3 3 3p 5/3T 5/2 1:53.0 27.2 1100
MANIFICENT 4 4 4 4 4/3Q 6/2H 1:53.0 27.1 1870
ROCKAPELLA 3 5 6 6 7/6T 7/4H 1:53.2 27.1 2700
CA CONNECTION 2 6 8 8p 8/8 8/5 1:53.3 27 410

First, the halves: 56.3 58 56

As it turned out, HAUCKULES, as the other handicapper points out (several weeks after the fact, I might add) won. But when we look at the race, who was most impressive here? Hauckules got it easy, getting no pressure whatsoever after the quarter, waltzing along in a half of :58 and was death and taxes to hang on. Off of this race, I clearly rate him as NOT sharp.

Solar Galaxy got a poor trip as Master Lawrence couldn’t reach, had to go 3-deep early and closed more than 3 lengths in the stretch (remember, the stretch ain’t the stretch … the marker for the head of stretch is about 1/3 of the way down the stretch).

Master Miles and zippo. Bad Bert closed fastest of all once straightened out and did so in the FASTEST PART OF THE RACE, namely, the end! This is VERY IMPORTANT TO NOTE. THIS WAS A KEY CHANGE OF CHARACHTER FOR HIM - previously, he was only closing in races where the first halves were exceptionally fast, and the paced slowed. Here was the first recent race where he made a meaningful stretch move while the pace quickened - key for an in-shape closer. Magnificent made no moves as expected. Rockapella raced like a horse who was facing much better foes. CA Connection clearly didn’t have anything.

Now, this race was NOT a key race in the evening, so I would not have been watching for anybody specifically out of this race - nobody was impressive enough to follow seriously, except for any who either showed a distinct change of character (BAD BERT) or who made no clear effort and could be working their way into shape (Manificent could be the latter … Rockapella the former) but my thoughts would be:

Hauckules would figure to be overbet next week. Solar Galaxy might be worth following.Bad Bert was truly in shape off this race, doing well to close. Manificent is eligible to improve. Rockapella who was raced like a non-contender, would also be considered in shape versus a slightly weaker bunch.

So the really in shape horses here, those that were possibly in shape coming in and proved their shape in this race, Rockapella and Bad Bert, both raced tough in their next start, and were in good enough shape to win their following races, at very nice mutuels.

SHAPE ALWAYS MATTERS. SHAPE IS RELATIVE. It doesn’t matter how fast the horses are. Even the top horses tend to do most of their winning when they are in that GREEN AREA we spoke of, when they are racing at THEIR best.