Handicapping Corner

with Steve M.

 

CAPITALIZING ON PRIOR OBSERVATIONS

 As you know, we had a gigantic night on Saturday - the type of night that, if you are a disciplined bettor, puts you up for a long, long time. Of 5 analyzed races, we had 4 consecutive winners ($4.20, $41.60, $4.20, and $9.20), 3 exactas ($11, $176, and $58) and 2 pick-3s ($166 and $577).

I don't recommend that anyone just go and bet what I say without interjecting your own ideas. When you do this, you never take any ownership of the bet and can never take responsibility for making it. This always leads to disappointment and blaming. However, as I said to one reader yesterday who failed to collect on Saturday, "if you are given information that points out 4 consecutive winners, 3 exactas and 2 pick-3's, and you can't manage to cash - you shouldn't be doing it.

Really - anybody who follows this sight, reads the analysis fully, reads each issue of Handicapping Corner carefully and asking questions where they are confused - anybody who does those things, and did not make some decent money Saturday night really should tune off of this sight.

Of course, that doesn't knock out too many people, since there really aren't too many of you who are really studying this, digesting it and working actively to improve your performance and abilities. There are a few of you who I know are, but most of you are not. There are still too many people out their who just want picks.

The last couple of weeks of 2 and 3 night cards, contained very few even potentially playable races, and most of the horses who were on our spot list drew into what appeared to be favorable spots in short fields and were bet down. Time and again I had communicated my lack of enthusiasm for these cards, so they represented an opportune time to exercise some discipline and bet lightly and selectively.

Saturday's card was a prime example of how to leverage up when you have made an assumption and have had it tested successfully. Here's what I mean:

In our weekend roundup of Saturday 11/25, one of the key fractions of the evening was the middle half of race 5 - from this spot came San Diego Hanover, entered in Saturday's 3rd race. The other spotted horse out of this spot, Takncareofbusiness, was scratched. San Diego Hanover was an easy 2-move winner. So far so good.

The next key spot on the 11/25 card was the final half of race 12. From this race, we tabbed Armbro Other and Tiffanies Pride as horses to watch out of this race. This was the assumption. It was put to the test in the 4th race this past Saturday as Tiffanies Pride was entered and raced well, winning at 19-1. This was the successful test. Finishing second to Tiffanies Pride was Armored Truck, who raced well on the front end but just came up short. He too had gained somewhat in that 11/25 race. This is even more confirmation that what we think we saw is right.

So at this time, it was really looking like the observations we made relating to November 25 were on target. For whatever reason, they were on the mark. So at this juncture, the proper thing to do is to see where else you can leverage on this. What other opportunities are there to capitalize on your observations of November 25? - because they appear to be on target.

Traindenfer Semaulu came out of another key portion of that same night. He won race 5 in ultra-impressive fashion.

Based on these, I greatly elevated my estimation of the chances of Armbro Other who was racing later on the card, in race 6 (he won and paid $9.20). By the time race 6 came along, it was apparent that speed was not holding up, and Armbro Other is a noted closer. In fact, I elevated his chances to the point where prior to post time, I thought that he clearly deserved to be the favorite, versus U Demand, who I felt deserved it prior.

Looking for a further chance to capitalize on this, I noted Ho Highball Lo in race 9 going off at 9-1. I missed on this one, but he got the worst of it for sure - with no chance for cover, he rushed up to engage the odd-on favorite first over and buried that one in a blistering 27.3 third quarter, which took it's toll on him. My intuition tells me that with a slightly more fortunate trip, this one looked sharp enough to score and is on my followup list as his race was a key race of this evening.

The other key horse coming out of the same race as Traindenfer was C G Incredible in the 11th, was was let off at 11-1. This one caught some very unfortunate racing luck which will not show up on the program, leaving from post 6, but all 3 horses directly inside of him also left and he ended up stacked wide through the turn as all were looped by the big speed from the outside, and his reward for a full move at the start was a spot 5th along the rail, after which no cover developed to help him back into the race.

Now, you wise guys out there might say, "hahaha Steve ... you show us how to capitalize on what you saw, and all that was left was one winner who was 7-2, and 2 losers. Big shit tough guy - who needs that. We want winners." To this I say the following: "$9.20 on a horse who at that point deserved to be the favorite is pretty good. And the exacta there of $58 wasn't too shabby. Also, we still have another horse to follow up on. In addition, keep in mind the timing - what if Armbro Other's race was the 4th, and Tiffanies Pride was later in the evening, then what? What if they were racing on different nights? Then, you would have been in position to lean pretty hard on a $40 horse. And to those who point out that my 2 additional followups were losers, let me say as a point of FACT. Not opinion, but FACT: If you are a disciplined bettor, and you keep wagering on horses like HO HIGHBALL LO and C G INCREDIBLE at odds of 9-1 and 13-1, you can quit your day job."

Remaining from November 25 is Oneinamillion N, who did not race this weekend?

Of course the flip side of this is that when you make observations on a given night, and they race back and do not race well, you may have to question whether the assumption you made is a valid one. It may not be, and continuing to follow up may cause you to compound the error. This is one of the best things you can do to keep your losing streaks under control. If it seems that your observations on a certain night or certain race might not have been on target, don't keep piling it on higher and deeper with more horses that you spotted under those same conditions. Go lighter or lay off until you can re-evaluate. When it is clear that you are right - when the subsequent racing shows that you were on target, that's the time to get more aggressive with some additional bets, looking to capitalize.

Next week --- Steve's Guide to Successful Pick-3 Wagering - How to get the most bang for your buck with this most profitable exotic wagering opportunity.

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