Well, as many of you know, I put much emphasis on fractional analysis. I am particularly in tune to effective use of energy that takes place at "key" parts of a given night or given race. "Key" usually means "fast" - which is to say that a horse who is used effectively in a fast fraction is more likely to be in shape than a horse who is used most effectively in a slow fraction.

But as I have said to some of you on email and have mentioned here before - the absolute speed of any portion of a race is not what matters. Rather, the relative speed of these pieces is what matters most.

So, OPEN PACER can run in a race with the following fractions:

CHEESEEATER LOBELL runs the same night in the following race:

Now, of course we will not try to compare CHEESEATER LOBELL to OPEN PACER, as they are probably sufficiently different in terms of ability to preclude comparison. However, the fractions of OPEN PACER's race seem basically pretty flat - without any particularly fast or slow portions. This could be significant if, for example, the races that night were consistently fast in the opening portions, with slow final quarters. In that case, these rather 'even' fractions might draw my attention, but to do this, you need to know what 'normal' is.

In CHEESEATER's race, however, there is a noticeable difference between the first half and the last half, with the latter being significantly faster. Again, having no additional information, one would be automatically attracted to the 2nd half of this race - but what if all the races that night were contested in this fashion - suddenly, the race would not stand out.

Now, the question becomes this: to what do we compare these numbers? One thing to understand is the general configuration of fractions at the track you are watching at the time of year you are watching. More importantly, you need to understand the configuration of fractions on a given night. Did this night deviate from the normal in some way - by some amount that would significantly affect your interpretation?

It is in this spirit that I summarized the daily fractional figures that I gather for each night's card at the Big M. This year at the Meadowlands was kind of strange. Did we actually have a winter? I seem to have forgotten what winter racing looks like! Hey, my rose bushes had new growth coming out in mid-February, so the weather must have had some effect on the racing.

The effect was that the effect of the winter was very muted. An overall profile at the Meadowlands looks something like this. If you consider a race to be a total of "0", the average pace of a race at the Meadowlands is (or was, this year)

It is this general profile which often attracts me to horses who used their energy most effectively in the middle half of a race where that middle half was abnormally fast (a time which is in direct opposition to the overall flow). The races which attract me most are those with strong middle halves and final halves - which generally means - strong third quarters - as the story is often told and/or sealed during this portion.

Now, usually the winter profile has opening halves which are as much as 1/4 second faster, middle halves which are about 2/5 slower and last halves which are about 1/5 faster. Furthermore, there is much more variation about the average during the cold months, which some nights having much slower or faster portions.

As the warm weather moves in, the first difference is that the variations are far less. You can go an entire month of May or June and find maybe 1 or 2 nights where some portion of the races were more than a second faster or slower, in relative terms. Again, in relative terms, the first halves are a little slower, as are the final halves. The middle halves are a bit faster - in particular, the second quarters - there is quite a bit more pace down the back lane. But the overall fractions for the various evenings start to look much more like one another.

This season, the warm weather months of April - June produced about 1.5 more winners per evening on the front - not nearly as much of a difference as has been seen in the past - again, thanks probably to El Niño.

So you can keep these numbers in mind as you watch a particular race, or as you watch the fractions pile up on a particlar evening - it will help you better understand what you are seeing - what is important and what is ordinary.