As I have mentioned on many occasions in the past, I feel that far too many horse players seem to obtain some sort of "kinship" or "liking" for particular horses, and a corresponding hatred for others. Often, these feelings carry over from week to week, month to month, even year to year.

Where does it come from? Oh, many places. Maybe the horse stumbled in one day and helped you cash a big exacta or trifecta. Maybe you have had the horse to win 10 times in the last 2 years. Perhaps, on the flip side, every time you bet on this particular animal 3 or 4 times, and each time he failed to function. After that, regardless of how good he looks on the program, or how good a value he seems to be - so you decide that you don't like this horse, and will not bet on it.

Now I know that it is very hard to follow horses day in, day out - week in, week out, and not develop these feelings to some extent. But it is clearly WRONG to have ANY particular feeling about any horse - positive or negative. As a bettor, you must consider the horse as a part in inventory, which you use to manufacture a product. Now, there may indeed be ASPECTS OF A HORSE'S CHARACTER which you might like, or dislike, based on how the horse seems to behave, but this is clearly not what most people I meet do.

Here are some examples of the difference, in English:

I could go on, and on … but the difference here is that in one case, you are letting your previous experience - winning or losing - determine whether or not the horse warrants a bet. In the other case, you are making an observation about the nature of the animal as a bettable commodity, and using that, regardless of whether you have won or lost on that animal in the past.

One of the key's to learning how to follow horses is learning to evaluate the performance of an animal OBJECTIVELY. When you have been following a horse, whether or not you actually wagered, you need to evaluate the performance of that animal objectively to decide whether the horse is worth following, or not. This is totally independent of whether you collected on the last race.

Let's take a look at last Tuesday, Sept. 22, 1999 at Garden State. I was in Delaware, Ohio, and could not get to simulcasting, thus, I did not wager. There were a few horses there who I was following - who perhaps I thought were worth a play - who I felt were in shape moving into the race. Let's take a look at how they did, and determine UNEMOTIONALLY whether or not I should continue to follow them.

GSP  ,19990922,6,01        GARDEN STATE PARK           RACE DATE:   09/22/1999
RACE: 01       TYPE: LATE BETTING         CLASS: nw2 cd             GAIT: PACE
EVENT:
PURSE:     3,600  TRACK COND: FAST     TIME: 0:28.0 - 0:57.4 - 1:27.2 - 1:57.0
                                                            -- TIME --
    HORSE NAME      POST  1/4  1/2  3/4 STRETCH   FINISH    ACTUAL  LQ   ODDS
RON'S ART             9    8   8p   6p    3/3Q     1/T      1:57.0 28.3    420
TEGETEBI              3    5   4p   1p    1/3      2/T      1:57.1 29.4   *210
MIKE'S MAGIC          8    7   6p   4p    4/4T     3/4Q     1:57.4 29.3   2670
SPUR OF GOLD          1    3   1p    2    2/3      4/4H     1:57.4 30.1    340
HI HO SCOOTER         6    6    7   8p   I6/8      5/7      1:58.2 29.4   6740
FAME'S SCOOTER        5   1p    3    5    7/9      6/13     1:59.3 31.1   2680
SPEED RULES           7   4p    2    3    5/7T     7/14     1:59.4 31.4    400
B C'S LAST LAUGH     X2    9    9    9    9/DIS    8/41     2:05.1        5420
NOVA TURBO            4    2    5    7   X8/19     9/43     2:05.3 37      490
CAN'T BLAME ME    SCRATCHED
DRIVERS: M.J. KESMODEL, J.F. MARSHALL III, M.R. MC NICHOL, D. DUBE,
J.H. MURRAY, C.J. POLISENO, J.L. RANDALL, M. ROMANO, B. JOHNSON,
SCRATCHED

In this race, on a night where the bias was pretty balanced … the fractions were not unusual. In fact, the fastest part of the race, relatively speaking was the first portion, during which he took back, and followed cover. He made his move in the slowish 3rd quarter, opened up a wide lead, and could not hang on. My conclusion here: Nice spot Steve … very well followed …. Now forget about him. And I will. I will have nothing against him. If he shows further signs that he is in shape, then I may look at him again. But if he wins next week at a price, I ain't gonna beat myself up over it.

RACE: 03       TYPE: LATE BETTING         CLASS: nw3000L6cd         GAIT: PACE
EVENT:
PURSE:     3,500  TRACK COND: FAST     TIME: 0:27.4 - 0:57.0 - 1:26.4 - 1:55.1
                                                            -- TIME --
    HORSE NAME      POST  1/4  1/2  3/4 STRETCH   FINISH    ACTUAL  LQ   ODDS
C HENRY SUNDANCE      2    1    2   2p    1/1H     1/NK     1:55.1 28.1    280
FANCY CREEK IDEAL     3    4    4    5    5/3H     2/NK     1:55.1 27.3   1080
I'M THE CHAIRPAN      4    5    5   3p    4/2      3/T      1:55.2 28.1   *160
GOFFERIT              8    2    3    4    3/1T     4/1H     1:55.2 28.1   2960
DICK TRACY            7    8   6p   6p    6/6H     5/7H     1:56.3 29      460
BIG TOWN SCOOTER      5    6    7    7    7/6T     6/8      1:56.4 29    21230
PAPER NICKELLS        1    3    1    1    2/1H     7/8H     1:56.4 30      300
LUCKEY AL             6    7    8   8p    8/9T     8/14     1:58.0 30.1   4150
TEFLON DON        SCRATCHED
DRIVERS: S.M. SMITH, J.P. SCHWIND, D. DUBE, R.J. POULIN, B.D. CLARKE,
J.H. MURRAY, C.R. MANZI, J.C. PAVIA JR, SCRATCHED

In RACE 3, was 3-FANCY CREEK IDEAL, who also made my list off an alert close. Again, nothing spectacular or odd about the race fraction-wise. From the chart, he seemed to sit, and close - as expected. The only issue I have is: he was 11-1, and being as Paper Nickells appears to have stopped badly, I wonder whether or not he had clear run, or whether he was in search of room at the critical portion of the race. (Anyone may volunteer to give me their opinion here, by the way). The race itself will not appear that impressive on the program, so, given no other information, I'm inclined to leave this one ON my list for another week, and keep an eye open.

RACE 8 had one I was watching - 9-CHIEF OF STAFF. Again, the race was rather ordinary for the night in question, fractionally. Quickish opening numbers, slowish middle, modest closing.

GSP  ,19990922,6,08        GARDEN STATE PARK           RACE DATE:   09/22/1999
RACE: 08       TYPE: LATE BETTING         CLASS: nw3500L6cd         GAIT: TROT
EVENT:
PURSE:     3,800  TRACK COND: FAST     TIME: 0:28.0 - 0:57.4 - 1:28.0 - 1:57.1
                                                            -- TIME --
    HORSE NAME      POST  1/4  1/2  3/4 STRETCH   FINISH    ACTUAL  LQ   ODDS
SOFTLY DREAM          2    1    1    1    1/3      1/2      1:57.1 29.1    280
PAR ONE              10   6p   5p   3p    2/3      2/2      1:57.3 29.2   *100
FOX VALLEY RAGGS      5    7    8   8p    6/9      3/7      1:58.3 29.3   5170
LITE GLASSES          3    4    4    2    3/7      4/7Q     1:58.3 30.2    860
BETTER ODDS           6    9   9p   9p    7/9Q     5/7T     1:58.4 29.2    830
CHIEF OF STAFF        9    5    6   6p    5/8H     6/7T     1:58.4 30     5450
DREAMLAND             4    3    3   4p    4/8Q     7/8      1:58.4 30.2   2610
AQUA PURA             8   8p   7p  7pp    8/12Q    8/14     2:00.0 31     1820
C'EST MA JOIE         7   2p    2    5    9/22Q    9/29     2:03.0 34.2   2800
YANKEE THRILLER     X1X   10   10   10   10/DIS   10/DIS                   970
DRIVERS: M. ZUANETTI, R.I. REMMEN, M.A. STEVENSON, R.S. SILVERMAN,
C.R. MANZI, M.R. MC NICHOL, K.E. LIE, S.M. SMITH, M.N. LANCASTER,
D. DUBE

He went off at a million to one … left and landed. May have gotten a little blindswitch there, as the chart shows AQUA PURA going 3 wide from behind him to the ¾. A couple of others did come from further back to close, after a very slow 3rd panel. It's a tough call. I'll leave him on and evaluate it. Again, if this were the Meadowlands, and I had access to a replay, I could look more closely at the film and make a better decision.

RACE: 09       TYPE: LATE BETTING         CLASS: 3yr25000Lc         GAIT: PACE
EVENT:
PURSE:    10,000  TRACK COND: FAST     TIME: 0:27.0 - 0:57.2 - 1:26.2 - 1:54.4
                                                            -- TIME --
    HORSE NAME      POST  1/4  1/2  3/4 STRETCH   FINISH    ACTUAL  LQ   ODDS
LIFE ON MARS          2    4    4    5    3/2T     1/1H     1:54.4 27.3 E0*160
C THE PRIEST          5    7    8   8p    8/5T     2/1H     1:55.0 27.3    300
ABSENTEE BALLOT       9    1    1    1    1/1H     3/1H     1:55.0 28.3    290
WILD LEGEND           7    2    2    2    2/1H     4/2      1:55.1 28.3 E0*160
CAM BEAT THE BEST     8    9   7p   6p    5/4      5/2Q     1:55.1 28     1190
VILLAGE MARQUIS       1    3    3    3    4/3      6/3H     1:55.2 28.3   1400
ANTIQUE COLLECTOR     6    8   9p    7    7/5Q     7/6H     1:56.0 28.3   2170
MACER 'DA PACER       4    6   5p   4p    6/5      8/7T     1:56.2 29.3   2430
PETER PEN             3    5    6    9    9/10T    9/15     1:57.4 29.3    930
DRIVERS: C.F. CONTE JR, M.J. KESMODEL, M. ROMANO, J.C. PAVIA JR,
J.L. RANDALL, D. DUBE, C.R. MANZI, B.C. STAFFORD JR, R.S. SILVERMAN

Race 9 features a few I've been watching. One from last week was 9 ABSENTEE BALLOT, who was on my list, and had finished 2nd at a spillion to 1 off of a deceptively good speed try. This week, he's under 3-1. This race featured a final half which was fast enough to pay attention to, with the 3rd quarter being pretty quick. 5-C THE PRIEST was on my list for this race. From the chart, it looks clearly like the cover of Macer Da Pacer was not good enough to help this one out, but he did close pretty well after straightening out. I can leave him on the list, and keep an eye out, because that close was a bit better than it looked. 7-WILD LEGEND had also shown a nice speed try the week before, but clearly, had no excuse from the pocket, and based on this race, I'll through his name back into the basket.

So, in summary:
1) If you start watching a horse for a certain reason, you continue to watch that horse as long as that same reason still exists. When the reason you are watching stops, so should you're interest.
2) As a value player, I am always more willing to keep a horse on my watch list when I feel there might be value in the upcoming weeks. Signs of this are high current odds, and efforts where the program line is likely to look lousy.
3) You should have no loyalty to horses merely because you cashed a ticket on them at some point in the past. Your loyalty should be based on some characteristic about the horse, trainer, driver, etc., not a previous ticket.
4) On the flip side, you should not take a disliking to a horse because of failing to collect on some previous bets. Rather, your reason should be based on some aspect of the horse's shape, or some other characteristic of the horse, and not based on your lack of previous success betting on this animal.