HARNESS HANDICAPPING CENTRAL

Handicapping Corner

with Steve M.

UNDERSTANDING AND USING YOUR "HANDICAPPING BIAS"

So, you think you understand the term "bias"? Well, here's a bit of an unusual take on track bias. It has nothing to do with how the track is, which horses won and lost or how. It's your "handicapping bias".

I've said it before and I'll say it again: In order to survive in this game, you have to know how to handicap and then you have to know how to bet. As such, it's important to understand your "handicapping bias" and your betting bias. And believe it - we all have these. Even someone who is as successful a wagerer as anyone - ME - has them. Understanding them can help you to capitalize on your strengths and, equally important, can help guide you to areas where you can improve your performance. The first step in the process is recognizing that they exist, how they manifest themselves in your workings at the track, how they help you and how they hurt you.

FACING THE MIRROR
Okay folks, it's time for some good, old-fashioned honesty again this week. Time to take a look in the mirror and see ourselves objectively - something that very few of us are willing to do.

Here's how I define your "handicapping bias" very simply: your predisposition toward certain "types" of horses. The most basic type of "bias" occurs when you find yourself overly attracted to either front-runners, closers, or grinders.

Before I continue, let me say that in a perfect world, any type of "handicapping bias" is wrong. But we do not live in a perfect world. So it is important that you understand yours. Understand its strengths and weaknesses. Understand where you can leverage it for your advantage, and understand where it can be hurting your performance.

UNDERSTANDING THE CAUSES
Again, understand that neither of these are necessarily bad, and understand from whence they come. If you have been handicapping for quite some time mainly on ½-mile tracks, for example, inevitably you will find yourself looking more closely and becoming attracted to horses with early speed. On the flip side, if you spend much time handicapping horses at tracks such as Mohawk or Balmoral, you will (or should) find yourself becoming more attracted to the nuances of closers, and what qualities you look for that help you identify when these animals are sharp and well placed.

Another aspect of what attracts us to one form of racing or another is our own psychological makeup. Remember that this whole thing is about "strokes" and what gives us the positive feelings to which we are all addicted. Take a look at where your attention focuses when you are watching some type of race where you have no betting interest. For example, see what happens when you watch an automobile race, or a track and field event. Maybe a bicycle race. If you only follow harness racing, see what happens when you casually watch a thoroughbred race. Where do you find your interest and focus resting? Do you find yourself looking at the rear and wondering who will come out of the pack? Is your interest riveted to the leader wondering if he is going to hang on? This is an excellent way to see where your natural psychological bias lies. Some people thrive on the excitement of having their horse on the lead, fighting off challenges and fighting in the lane to hold on for the win. Others, like myself, prefer the thrill of the chase; the power of the pelleton; the logistics of watching to see if the pack dynamics can wear down the leader and the thrill of seeing my horse "have run" at the end and gobble them up. Believe it or not, this has a lot to do with the sense of inner comfort that we have backing certain types of horses.

The natural by-product of this is skill. The more psychologically interested you are in something, the more likely you will be able to absorb and master the skills needed. It is much easier for someone with a "closer-type profile" to relate to, understand, learn and master the nuances of spotting closers who might be sharp at the one time when we really want to spot them: AT THE BEGINNING OF THEIR SHAPE CYCLE BEFORE EVERYONE SEES THAT THEY ARE SHARP. Likewise with front-runners. If you have this type of profile, you will find it much easier to observe, learn and master the nuances of spotting speed horses at the right time in order to take maximum advantage - not when they are going off at 5-2 after they turned in a sharp effort 2 back and won last week on the engine paying $54.80.

 

WHY A PERSONAL HANDICAPPING BIAS HURTS US
The reason why such a natural bias hurts us is quite simple. Remember that handicapping is all about evaluating chances. Also remember that all of us have a natural tendency to have a certain amount of "tunnel vision"; that is, once we like or are attracted to a certain horse, we have a tendency to over-estimate the chances of this horse winning and under-estimate the number of scenarios which would result in defeat. If you have a significant "handicapping bias" then this "tunnel vision" effect will be enhanced even more. This is so because you will have a natural tendency to underestimate all scenarios that favor the other style! When this happens, you will inevitably find yourself betting more races and on horses where you are not getting proper value. Having a more balanced "handicapping bias" will not eliminate "tunnel vision" - we have that because we are human. But it will go a long way toward keeping it at a manageable level.

UTILIZING YOUR BIAS PRODUCTIVELY
Now the question becomes: now that you have realized that you are human and that you do, in fact, have a bias toward a certain type of racing and a certain type of horse, and you understand where it comes from, what should you do about it?

The glib answer is: get rid of it and learn to be totally unbiased. Impossible. The best thing you can do is to learn how to use it to your advantage and to avoid situations where it works to your disadvantage. In addition, you want to try to become as unbiased as possible, given your own psychological makeup.

One way that you can take advantage of your natural "handicapping bias" is in selecting which tracks you spend your time and money. If you have a closer's handicapping bias, like myself, you might consider spending your effort at a track like Balmoral or maybe Mohawk. If you have a speed-bias in your handicapping which is built into your psychological makeup, you are very likely to find these tracks eternally frustrating. As the frustration mounts, your ability to make rational decisions deteriorates. The result: poor performance.

If you have a speed bias in your makeup, you might want to spend your time with half-milers, or tracks where speed tends to hold up better such as Woodbine or Pocono. If you also have an interest in yachting or other water sports and like short fields on a mile track with favorites who lay over the field, then Garden State might be the place for you.

 

SUMMARY
We all have a natural bias toward certain types of horses. It is important to understand that it is there, why it is and how it affects us at the track. Your goal should NOT be to eliminate it. You should strive to acknowledge it and work to balance it to whatever degree you are comfortable. In any event, you want to spend your time, talent, energy, opportunity and money in areas where you can emphasize this as strength and as an asset in order to improve your performance versus your competition - the other bettors.

 

Copyright © Kimstarr Communications, 2000