Preface: I know we have many new viewers joining in as we go, and I want to encourage the new viewers to take the time to review and study the previous editions of Handicapping Corner. This is important because as we move on, I’m going to eventually stop repeating myself and assume that you already know the stuff. The most important one that all recent viewers should consult is the special new years edition - THE TEN COMMITMENTS - and read them carefully. Even those of you who have read them, go back and re-read them. Go ahead, click and read them. I’ll wait for a few minutes while you do ….. One good thing you can do is pick one of these that you need to work on, and set a specific goal for that one commitment It’s always best if you tell someone else what you are committing to so you can be held accountable. Some people use me, though all I can do is nag - I can’t really tell over the Internet if you are following up. I try to make the information in these articles as practical as possible. The advantage of reading here is that you are getting thoughts from someone who actually plays this game profitably, not just someone who writes articles and spouts off theory - there’s another web site you can dial up if that’s what you want. But like anything, when you learn something new, it can be difficult trying to incorporate all of it and put it to use. And I do put a lot of information into these articles. It’s impossible to incorporate it all at once. Something that would be very helpful in making these articles more helpful would be for you to read each one, then write down the one or two most important ideas which you found. Then, write down one new action you can take this week as a result. That way, you start to make changes more gradually. Look - it takes effort to change. Often, when you are trying something new, you need to take one or two steps back in order to take three or four steps forward. It can hurt when those backward steps cost you money, but that is how you learn. Today, I want to step you through the whole cycle that I go through leading up to and including placing a bet. I hope this will help you put things in perspective, understand where some of these things I speak of fit in, and help this become more practical and useful. I warn you - this is very simple and not complicated, and there aren’t any great revelations in this installment (at least I don’t think so, although sometimes, the material that I think is fantastic is ho-hum to you guys, and the stuff that I think is "ho-hum" you guys go bananas over). But again, short of sitting with each of you for a whole week, or doing a video, "A Week in the Life of Steve M" this is the best way I can communicate the steps that I take, and what I do with some of the info. I’m sharing. 1. My handicapping process for next week begins this week. Since I primarily use the Chart-Spotting Method for picking races, my work begins with a review of the previous night’s charts. I take the charts, and first take an overall look at the evening as a whole, what seemed to be happening. I look at all of the fractions to see which seem to be the key races, and the key portions of the races. Then, I go through each race, trying to put it together like a story, to understand what happened. An interest exercise you can do at this point is to mark down right on the chart how you rate the shape of each horse based on that performance alone. I focus in on the key fractions of the evening, and in doing so, identify potential key horses to follow through on for next week. I write these horses down. These become the magnets or the funnel that help channel my attentions toward certain races. YOU CANNOT GIVE YOUR FULL ATTENTION TO ALL THE HORSES AND ALL THE RACES.
2. When the advance entries come out, I look for the horses which I noted and circle those races. Then, when the program comes out, I pick out only those races which contain one of the horses of interest. 3. Then I go from the top, and do independent shape ratings for each horse. I do these in a vacuum - I don’t look at the post positions, the drivers, the class or anything. I just want to come up with each horse’s shape, if it can be determined. I consult with charts to clarify issues, and mark down any lines that are ambiguous and races that I feel I need to see again. 4. Next, I re-focus on the key horse of mine, to further evaluate his performance in lieu of anything else I might have learned, or any other races that may have taken place. If, for example, another horse who was also used effectively during the same portion of the last race as my key horse races well and wins, this is something I might consider in interpreting his shape. Now it is quite possible that after my review, I might conclude that he is merely in average shape. The race may have other horses in it who are in better shape. I have no allegiance to the horse, I just use him as a magnet to pull me into the race itself. (usually though, he is in shape or I wouldn’t have picked him out in the first place). 5. Then, I start to add in the other factors - driver, post position, "class" issues, potential driver strategies, etc. and try to estimate the chances of each horse winning. I do this for all horses, though I focus primarily on those that I have decided are in shape. My goal here is to determine what I feel the relative chances of each horse are and thereby estimate what his odds should be, in my opinion. (I will do a separate installment on how to make up your own morning line). I might, at this point, determine that the chances of my original horse aren’t that good, or I might conclude that he deserves to be the favorite. 6. Then, I look at other qualities of the horses to see which might have an advantage in a race for second. At the Meadowlands, this is not so important, as I prefer in-shape horses to out-of-shape horses regardless. At smaller tracks, separate trip handicapping for second and third can help, though it is much less important than having an idea of the win chances. 7. Notice that up to this point, I have not looked at the morning line. Why not? Because I don’t give a shit - that’s why not. I have only been concerned with shape and chances of winning. Now, I want to get a handle on where potential value might lie, so I try to put myself in the position of the betting public, and look at the horses, and see who they might be betting on. Now, I look at the morning line, the track handicapper, the local papers, the Sports Eye, all the ridiculous email that people send me about this horse and that horse (just kidding!) and whatever, to help me get a handle on the consensus opinion, to see if it differs from my conclusion. Of course, you never really know until post time, but it pays to do it ahead of time. It helps me to know what to expect, and where the value seems to be and not be. If you are planning on placing your bet off track, without seeing the odds, you have to do this, and you have to get good at it. In order to get good at it, you have to be able to think like other people think, not like you think. 8. But let’s say we’re going to the Meadowlands. I get in my car, drive over, give it to the valet guy to whom I gave a generous Christmas gift for them to keep my car in a safe place and have it warmed up for me in the winter, ready after the race I have told them I am staying for. This is good to do - you can’t stay longer to piss away money on other races you don’t care about because your car is running! 9. When I get in, I have some clam chowder (eating is very important - you think better - and often you do not have the time to do it during the card, so get there early, put your program down, and feed your body). Then I head for the video replay machines to watch replays of any races that I was still unclear about and wanted to see again. I make any changes to my shape ratings or chances based on this. 10. I watch all the races to see how the track is stacking
up. When my race comes along (even if it is the first race) I watch the
opening odds, and keep a general awareness as to what is going on, but I
don’t sit there and study every tick of the odds. I also do not bother
to watch the horses warm up, and I don’t bring a stopwatch. Personally,
I think people who study warm-ups are schmucks - it’s like studying
the after dinner mints on the counter next to the cash register at the Chinese
restaurant. Unless you know exactly what you are looking for, don’t
even bother. I have bet on horses that win that look like they should be
pulling a buggy in the Amish country in the scoring. 12. After they finish the race, I move over to the teller window to collect. 13. If the bias of the track is developing strongly in one direction or another, I will look at my remaining key races, and make any changes to the relative chances of the in-shape horses that are appropriate. Notice what I am doing here - I go into the track with an idea of where the value might lie, but I am prepared to react should it not develop, or develop differently. Some examples from this last Saturday (3/28) night would be:
14. If I should notice a clear error in betting, such as a very poor favorite, even if my key horse is not of particular value, I might get creative and play some other combinations. 15. But generally, I have the key races and the key horses in those races, and if the odds aren’t there, I lay off and bet fewer races. I DO NOT BET MORE ON THE RACES BECAUSE I AM BETTING FEWER RACES - I USE THAT OPPORTUNITY TO SAVE MONEY. 16.. The next morning, I consult my charts and start all over … the first thing I do (which I didn’t mention at the top because this is an endless circle and I had to start someplace) is take the physical observations that I made, and try to confirm them on the charts - to see if the goods and the bads that I think I saw were really as good and as bad as they appeared …. And the cycle goes on.
So first I determine shape, then I translate that into chances, then I translate that into odds, then I translate that into a decision to bet or not to bet. Most of the stuff we talk about here fits into the first category - it has something to do with determining the horse’s shape, since that’s what’s most important. All the other stuff that you can think of fit’s into the second category (his chances) and determining the proper bets and making them goes into the third category. Next week, I’m going to go over the things that horses do to prove they are in shape - it’s a good topic for another "quiz" ahead of time, so I’ll prepare it and post it. © 1998 Kimstarr Communications |