Handicapping Corner

with Steve M.

Introduction to "Daily Notes and Observations" Section

THE NEW DAILY NOTES

 

As many of you old-timers can tell, I've been struggling with various ways of posting my personal notes and follow-ups on the site, in a way that is of interest to you both in terms of being fun and informative.

I've tried the "Random Gleanings" approach - recording various sundry random thoughts and observations, daily follow-ups of recommended bets and key races, etc. This is where I need your help and input. It would be particularly helpful now, with Garden State underway and with so many new viewers on the site.

I've been asked many times, "why do you do these analyses, etc.?" "Isn't this a lot of extra work?" The truth is that if I weren't writing the analyses and making notes in the attempt to share my decades of experience with you, I would be doing much of this anyway - for myself. When I write a note to myself, 2 minutes later, it is on my computer system, attached to the relevant chart.

I am going back to the original "Daily Notes" format, but I will be changing the content somewhat to include specific comments on various races - and my personal notes.

These notes are not "touts." They should never be looked at as stand-alone recommendations. Many of my notes are merely quick impressions that I have jotted down. It is a rare note that wouldn't benefit from further scrutiny or research on your part. Different players will use these notes differently, depending on their experience and style. Ideally, my notes will get you started thinking by giving you a glimpse of my reaction to a race or chart.

Remember my goal here is too make you better handicappers and bettors - not merely to give out winners. Most players enjoy having somebody off-stage whispering a suggestion here and there. That's where I come in. If my notes help you make decisions; I'll have achieved what I'm trying to do. I'm merely passing my observations on to you, often isolated and quick observations, very much as I would record them for myself. Nobody can act or should act on all of these, but all offer at least a morsel of food for thought, and that doesn't make a harmful diet for anybody.

Handicapping or betting successfully is on ongoing struggle. There is no way to take risks without taking some losses. It's part of the game. And it's a lonesome game. .

Writing these notes is like living in a fish bowl, of course. Letting you see me bumbling around and making mistakes will hopefully increase your confidence. Successful players like myself are happy when I can be right a bit more often than I am wrong. I'm especially happy if my average winning wager is larger than my average loss. To achieve either or both of these objectives takes experience and confidence.

Not everybody agrees, but I do not believe that handicapping is an exact science. Believing it to be a science (by using things like speed ratings) leads to disappointment and loss of confidence. A good speculator is a good thinker and is always ready for something to happen that nobody has seen before. He survives by subtle observation, quick wits, skepticism, stubbornly independent thought, intuition developed in the school of hard knocks, and a peculiar blend of confidence and humility. It takes confidence to take risks, humility to accept and learn from your mistakes.

As I've said before, the track doesn't owe you a living. It doesn't owe you anything. It won't pay you a penny for going through the motions of hard work. You have to be resourceful and flexible. You have to think smart, take your licks, and rake in what you can get out of the track without apology.

None of it's worth a shit though, unless you enjoy it. So let's have fun together. I'll be sending you note almost every racing day.

 

--Steve M

 

P.S. IF YOU ARE A NOVICE, CHANCES ARE YOU'LL FIND THE DAILY NOTES ESPECIALLY USEFUL AS AN ONGOING EDUCATION. BOOKS AND ARTICLES ARE FINE AND NECESSARY, BUT THERE IS NOTHING LIKE SMALL DOSES OF LESSONS ABSORBED OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME. I HOPE THESE NOTES PROVIDE A BRIDGE BETWEEN THE THEORETICAL AND PRACTICAL EXPERIENCE. THESE NOTES WILL KEEP YOU ON YOUR TOES - NOT JUST NOW, BUT FROM NOW ON!

Feel free to suggest items to include in the Daily Notes section. Press here to go to Daily Notes.

 

 



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