Last week, we introduced the idea of using ALL in order to pick up the big numbers in exactas and trifectas when out-of-shape horses manage to get in there, and that they get in there for second and third a lot more often then they get to the winner’s circle. Even so, in many cases, their mere existence on the board causes havoc on the tote board. These are the one’s that can put you up for a long while, or as my friend Frank might say, "pays for the new roof." And as I said, there’s a time and a place for it, and you have to pick your spots. You want all your ducks in a row before you start throwing in the junk. We also introduced the first 2 basic ground rules for doing this:

1. There must be a very sharp horse which is being overlooked in the betting. The most obvious case of this is a horse that YOU KNOW is the most likely to win (i.e. should be the favorite) that is being substantially overlooked in the betting. This means his odds are twice (or more) what they should be. For longer priced horse, they don’t have to be twice, they just have to be more - but the horse has to have a good shot to win. If you’re key horse is 14-1, and you think he should be 8-1, this is indeed a nice overlay, but 8-1 is not what I consider to be a good shot to win.

2. There must be a heavy favorite who has a good shot to get beat. To me, this means he should be 3rd choice in the race at best. He also should be absorbing a substantial amount of the exotic pools as well. This aspect is critical, because in well bet pools, such as a track like the Meadowlands, when the heavy favorite wins or finishes second, the trifectas rarely pay enough to make it profitable to bet ALL. In the long run, you will go broke. Likewise, the exactas are usually low with all but the longest of shots, enough so that you cannot bet ALL profitably.

So the whole key here is the absence of the favorite in the 1 or 2 slot - so let’s focus on the favorite, and see what situations we would like to see, or not see.

Of course, the thing we love to see is a big favorite who we consider to be in poor shape. Now frankly, there aren’t that many of these, but if you wait patiently, these races will appear, such as in the 6th race this past Friday evening at Yonkers. If the favorite is in poor shape, that’s all I need to know. I do not care what his particular racing style is, or what post position he has, or who is driving. If this is the case, and I have another very sharp horse who I know has an excellent chance to win, I’m ready to bet ALL, investing the extra money for the good payoff.

But for the most part, favorites are in shape, so let’s concentrate on what to do here. Your first impression might be to say, "Steve, you mean you would start fiddling around with ALL, with out-of-shape horses when there’s a favorite who’s in shape?" Well, yes. Listen closely.

a. If the favorite is in excellent shape, all bets are off. It is generally not worth the money to buy ALL against these type, regardless of their racing style. But if the favorite is in good shape, the next thing you look at is the predominant racing style of the favorite.

b. If he is a closer, then I want a field that is more devoid of shape, except of course for my horse. This means that in addition to my key horse, there should be no more than 2 other horses in shape. The reasoning for this is that a closer, even when sharp, is dependent on other horses to put the heat on the leader, to provide active cover and good flow. If my in-shape favorite is a closer, I don’t want this…. I want him to have dead horses for cover, clogging the flow or worse yet, not going at all, making him grind it out.

b. If the in-shape favorite is a front runner, then things get more tricky, because an in-shape front runner is capable of taking things into his own hands. In this case, I want more form in the field - at least 3 other horses, in addition to my key horse, who are absolutely in shape. We want this so that there is more likely to be a strong challenge if the fave has the front. Also, we would like things to be more difficult for him to get the lead, so I insist that there be speed from the rail, and the 2 horses immediately inside of the favorite, have to figure to leave. Thus, I never bet ALL against an in-shape front-running favorite who has one of the inside 3 posts.

So as an example, with an in-shape favorite with early speed, in a 10-horse field at the Meadowlands, for example, you would like to have a key horse who is in excellent shape, and at least 3 other horses who are in good shape. Not 2 others…at least 3. Not so-so shape - good shape, without hesitation. Say he has the 7 hole. The rail horse must figure to leave AND the 5 AND 6 also have to be horses who have shown a propensity to leave. This, by the way, is the toughest thing on a front runner - speed right inside of him. A horse can leave from the 10-hole, and if the only speed comes from the inside, he can quickly angle over and save ground. But if the 8 and the 9 leave in his face, he has a quick decision to make - duck in or stay as wide as they keep him until things settle down - either way, this makes things hard and makes him work extra hard to get the top.

c. There is one type of in-shape (good shape) favorite that I do not bet ALL against, strangely enough - the grinder. These horses can pick up live flow if it's there, but if it's not, so what, they just get up on the rim and can run their own race, uncovered if need be, almost oblivious to the pace of the rest of the field, and still come up with the goods in the lane. You've seen these - they come first over, looking like a weak first over, just hang there and come on in the lane. Or sometimes, they join the flow and gap, but then come back on. These are tougher cookies than you think, and it's tough to trip handicap against them, so I don't invest in out of shape horses if the in-shape favorite is a grinder, particularly on a mile track.

These are my basic ground rules for when a race is or is not a candidate for the ALL bet. Just because these things are present, by the way, doesn’t mean you automatically do ALL, it just means you can. Trust me folks, if you start ALL-ing against in-shape favorites, you need to keep these things in your mind. You start wheeling ALLs with out of shape horses against in-shape front-running favorites when the conditions above aren’t in place, you might hit some trifectas, but your going lose your money, very quickly. If a race does not meet these conditions, and is not a candidate for ALL betting, then you can still part-wheel, but only with in-shape horses. But you should not start throwing in out-of-shapers into the mix. MY ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THAT AT ODDS OF MORE THAN 10-1, IN A ONE MILE CONTEST, YOU CAN THROW IN THE RAIL HORSE AT YONKERS UNDERNEATH IN YOUR TRIFECTAS OR EXACTAS, REGARDLESS OF HIS SHAPE. But beware - Yonkers is a VERY SMARTLY BET pool - probably the most well bet pool I know, and the big bettors know this, and often throw the #1 in.

Let’s start with the exactas. The only type of ALL to consider is whether or not you are going to part-wheel with your key horse, or play ALL underneath him or on top of him. I am much more likely to play the ALL underneath, than on top. Let’s say I like #1, super shape and 8-1. It’s really a very objective decision. This is because you can see what they are paying. I figure that I will probably play the other in-shape horses underneath anyway, so see how many additional tickets you are adding by playing ALL. Let’s say I’m potentially adding 5 more combinations. That’s $10, which if bet to win, would yield me another $80. If any of these throw-ins are less than that, I’d rather just go with the exactas with in-shapers, and play the extra to win. THE LONG AND THE SHORT OF IT IS - IT MAY SOUND SEXY TO HAVE THE EXACTA, BUT I’D RATHER HAVE A SHOW BET IF IT MAKES MORE MONEY. CONSIDER THE ADDITIONAL TICKETS YOU ARE THROWING IN, AND SEE IF IT MAKES FINANCIAL SENSE TO BUY THESE, VERSUS MORE WIN TICKETS. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve seen people start wheeling, adding combos, hit and end up with like a $25 exacta and lose money after being right about their pick and hitting the exacta. In fact, I was at the track with a guy who hit the 1st race exacta, the 2nd race exacta and the early double, and lost money on the whole deal! As for playing ALL on top, I rarely do this, because it’s in shape horses who win. They really have to be biggies for me to do this, but at times, it can come into play.

Most of the ALL playing comes in the trifectas, so I’ll talk briefly about this, and do another installment on profitable trifecta betting. If the field is lacking in form, and my horse is a decent price, one way to play this is:

This takes some capital, but it’s a good play if you are correct in your assessment about your horse’s chance and that of the favorite. If the horse I like is a real longie and I am sure that the favorite is NOT in shape, sometimes I’ll use what’s called a "key wheel":

Yes, this is a glorified show bet, and this really takes some capital. I never do this with an in-shape favorite or a favorite with early speed. Also, my horse has to be a real good price, the field must be devoid of other form or the other in-shape horses are also long shots. Not too often, as you might suspect.

When there are other horses who are in shape, the most often played ALL bet, by me, is:

The other basic all bet I use in this situation is:

More on some creative trifecta strategies in a future installment!