Ever have periods of time at the track where you can do no wrong? Every horse that you spot the week before comes back the next week and wins? When you go, it seems like every race you bet, you hit. You’re picking winners, cold exactas, cold trifectas … even cold superfectas, even if there’s no bet. Sometimes, you think you could actually list the entire order of finish from top to bottom, your in such a zone. I’ve been so hot I’ve bet the wrong race, and won. I even bet the wrong night and cashed. I’ve even bet the wrong race at the wrong track and managed to get to the windows! I’ve thrown away $100 exacta tickets (that’s the exacta 50 times) only to have them take down the other horses and put up mine. I’ve had the teller punch the wrong numbers, not notice it until too late and catch the exacta as a result! Ever get into one of these streaks?

When I caught the largest $2 Daily Double in Roosevelt Raceway history, it happened much by chance. I had been waiting for a horse, The Skipper, to race, and he drew the rail in the 2nd race. So without seeing the program, I left New Jersey for Westbury, only to run into a major traffic jam due to an accident. Time was running out, so, being a stupid teenager lacking all sensibility and judgment (isn’t that redundant?), I hopped into the shoulder following emergency vehicles. Managing to arrive at the track unticketed with license not revoked, I raced into the track with just enough time to hear Jack Lee, the announcer say, "first race field is ON GATE". Quickly, I dashed to the nearest window, and wheeled ALL - 1, twice. Then I bought a program, looked at the first race wondering why I bothered to waste money wheeling certain horses, especially the #8. Then I watched in amazement as John Chapman won the opening race with #8 Brett’s Nicki, the longest shot on the board. The Skipper won the second race by a whisker, and I had it.

How about the flip side: Ever have a period of time where you just can’t come out ahead, no matter what you do? Ever have those nights where no matter what you bet, it loses. You almost feel like you could box 9 horses in the exacta, and the 10th would win going away? Even when you catch a good winner or an exacta, the "inquiry" light goes on and they take your horse down. Subconsciously, you expect to hear the track announcer say, "upon review of the replays, the judges have found no basis for disqualification, but, Steve in the clubhouse has the exacta and is on a losing streak, so we will be taking down #5 Streakbreaker Lobell and placing him as far down the ladder as needed to insure that Steve has no winning tickets. The results are now official."

Sometimes, you feel like the only way you’re going to get that teller to pay you is to show up at the window with a tommy gun rather than a ticket. It can get so bad that even when you stick credit vouchers into the machine, it says "invalid serial number"! Have you ever gone through this trip?

Well if you can relate to either or both of the above, I’m here to tell you that you are not alone - we all have. It’s the nature of streaks, and it’s the nature of how events happen in nature. My father used to have an expression, he said, "sometimes your zigging and they’re zigging, and sometimes you’re zigging and they’re zagging."

Both of theses types of streaks can really test your strength. When things are going right, the battle is to keep from getting cocky and overconfident, to keep from doing stupid things and to maximize the potential winnings. When things are going wrong, you need to keep your confidence level up, know that you are not as bad as this, and minimize your losses. There are a few things you need to know to be able to handle these. The first is to have some knowledge about the nature of streaks, themselves.

One major area where most people go wrong in all areas of speculating has to do with causation. A major mistake you can make in gambling and in life is to constantly read causation (cause and effect) into everything that happens to you. The self-improvement gurus, like the one’s on TV, will tell you that there is no such things as luck. "Everything has a cause" the scream. I’m here to tell you, and them (including Tony "Lurch" Robbins) that that’s a big bunch of bullshit.

Any of you ever heard of a "bell curve?" It’s a nice, pretty curve, isn’t it? It has the perfect shape, organization and balance about it that even an architect would appreciate. So filled with order and apparent organization. But ya know what it is? It is plot (graphical picture) of purely random events. This is how nature deals out the cards when left totally to chance, with no outside factors. When you stand back, over a long period of time, and plot them, you get this beautifully organized curve! But what does the curve really represent. Well, the "across" axis is "input" and the "up-down" axis is the "output" so it is plotting the results based on various inputs, or random events. But the thing to notice about such a curve is that nowhere on the curve is TIME mentioned. By looking at the curve, you do not know in what chronological order the various plotted points came up. Did they come up in order, sequentially? Were some evenly scattered? Did various parts come up in groups or clumps, together? Well, the answers are yes, yes and yes. But you don’t know from the curve. All you know is that the end result is an orderly grouping.

The same happens at the track. Whatever methods you are using, you’re long-term results are going to be like a curve. But you don’t know what the order is going to be. Your curve can plot sequentially (steady profits/losses <profits we hope>), periods of time where you bounce back and forth from profit to loss to profit to loss, etc. Finally, other times, the clumps, where you have successive points on the graph in one area, say the profits, and other times when you have multiple points in the loss area.

The point is, that the majority of the input at the track and in life (stimuli are what they are called in experiments) are random events. You want to prepare yourself to handle them as best as possible, but there is nothing you can do to determine what order they come at you.

So the first and most important thing you need to do (or in this case NOT do) when in a streak is attempt to find causation in everything that’s happening, because a lot of it is by chance. You are not as good a handicapper for real as you appear to be when you are hot, and you are not as bad as you appear to be when you are cold. Don’t make the mistake of thinking that because you are very hot, that there’s something magical you are doing. Also, avoid the mistake of thinking that because you are cold, that you are totally incompetent and need to go back to the drawing boards at ground zero.

But the thing TO DO when you are in a streak, is to look at some of the underlying assumptions you are making - because while you may not be able to influence the coming and going of the streaks themselves, you can influence how well you do during the good ones, and how poorly you do during the bad ones. Let’s say you are at the track one night, or reviewing charts of an evening, and you make an observation which at that time you think is correct.

Let’s say, hypothetically, that you conclude that the track is no good on the front end that night. This will affect how you perceive the relative shapes of a whole host of horses the following week. You will give the ones on the front end that night some sort of shape edge if they raced decently, while ones who failed on a night that you perceived as being better for front-runners, you will rate as less sharp. Now what happens if you were wrong about your observation? It’s not like you made an observation that effected one horse - your error will affect your shape ratings on many horses. So this type of error would multiply, and grow and compound itself, possibly causing you to mishandicap many, many horses - thereby creating a mini losing streak of it’s own. If you are already in a neutral kind of streak, and this happens, this itself can throw you into a losing streak. If you are hot, this can stop you right in your tracks. What’s worse, if you are already in a less effective portion of your cycle, this can make it much worse.

If you are right, however, you can leverage this insight into useful shape determinations in a large number of races in the future, with similar positive effects. Even a poor read on one or two particular races can leverage themselves substantially as these various horses spread out into a larger number of races over the course of the next week or so.

What I do when I am clearly in a losing streak, are a few things:
1) I remember that this is part of the game and try to keep a level head. I do not attempt to raise my bets to win a bunch back in a hurry, nor do I specifically lower my bets and play scared.
2) What I will do with my bets is simplify, until I get the confidence back. Nothing is worse than being in a negative streak, and even when your horses race great, they come in second when you needed them on top, and they come in third, when you needed them in the one or two spot. Or you had him with the 2,4,5 and 6 but the 7 came second, etc. etc. Simplify. When you’re clearly cold, and you need to get your confidence back, get away from the exotics - quit all the exacta wheeling and settle into some good, old-fashioned win/show betting. If you play exactas, keep them simple until you get your confidence back. Maybe box a couple of horses.
3) I examine what particular methods or assumptions or angles I’m applying currently - maybe their incorrect, or out of phase now. Maybe I’m over-cooking them, and ignoring other aspects. This can happen, particularly on a good streak. You find a couple of things that are working well, and keep doing more and more and suddenly, they ain’t workin no more - you’re over cooking them. Sometimes, you can get so involved in the bias of the track that it obscures good performances by other horses. Say I feel the track on the 20th was dead, and so I rate highly 6 horses who raced well that night on the front end. I bet them all the next week. They all lose, but a couple seem to have excuses. Then I still feel good about that race, so I am tempted to consider them for play the week after that. I stop after the first 2 or 3 lose with no excuse, and ask myself, "why did you like these horses", and I might adjust .. I might re-evaluate how tough the track was or wasn’t that night. I might even neutralize that angle, because it isn’t productive. I am not going to bet these horse each the next 2 weeks and lose before I figure out that maybe I was wrong. If you get on the train to Florida instead of the train to California, fine - you made a mistake. But have the common sense to get off at Norfolk, okay, when it stops. Sometimes you are just tired, not feeling well, consumed with other things in your life and aren’t focusing. You are likely to not see things clearly then and are more likely to try to short-cut your way to picking winners. If that’s the case, don’t follow up on any of the horses you spotted then, and come back when your fresh, relaxed and alert.

Remember, streaks happen. They happen randomly as part of the bell curve. There’s nothing you can do about it. Don’t over-analyze them. Don’t over-estimate your supernatural powers and assume that you are creating all the good and bad streaks, cuz your not. Just be cool and roll with the punches. When you’re on a hot streak, keep your head level and don’t get cocky. Don’t brag to your friends about what a hot streak you’re on while they’re not - you’ll make enemies that way. NOBODY LIKES A SORE WINNER. Bet with your head and ride the streak for as long as you can, like a surfer on a good wave. And when you’re cold, you’re cold. See if you are doing anything to accentuate it, but understand it for what it is and accept it. Simplify your bets and minimize the damage. And keep it to yourself, or take a break from the races for a while and come back when you’re fresh and have a better attitude. Whatever you do, DON’T BE A SORE LOSER, cuz nobody likes them either.