Our first Handicapping Corner of the season comes from the viewer mailbag.
John, someplace in the outer reaches of Minnesota - that great hotbed of
harness racing. He is currently president of the Minnesota Harness Fans
Club, whose members, all three of them, meet every Friday night and discuss
how come everyone around there likes snowmobiling and ice fishing, and nobody
gives a crap about harness racing. They just can't seem to figure it out.
Anyway, he writes:
"What should one make of a horse who is parked the mile
and finishes decently but has raced with cover and not really extended himself
early or middle? Yes, extra ground is being covered. I guess the action
of lack thereof of the pacesetters is what matters here. But when I see
a horse parked the mile and finishing well, it becomes a handicapping crutch
- and crutches are bad. Should a parked-mile trip such as this usually be
viewed as good?"
"Parked the mile" trips are probably the most difficult trips
to assess. They can be brutal paralyzers and obviously so. They can be brutal,
but not obviously. They can be an extremely restful way for a horse to travel
on a big track, particularly since the way some horses take turns, some
will actually steer better on the outside than along the rail. But to your
point - these trips are the ones which require the most "observation".
Some of it can be told from the chart, but much cannot. If a horse has continual
cover that keeps advancing at a comfortable pace, then you are correct ...
other than the extra ground (which, by the way, happens ONLY on the turns)
is the only added consideration. Also remember that the horse's position
is only marked AT the points of call, so a horse could be outside at the
1/4 on a mile track, duck in, and then come out just before the half. Also,
a horse can be on the rail for the first quarter and come out before the
1/4.. thereby be "parked" AT the 1/4, but not go any extra ground....
same as for the 1/2 - 3/4. So you have to be careful.
An overlooked part of the horse that is parked the whole way on the outside
with cover is: did the horse really have "useful cover" (i.e.
within 2 lengths), or did he gap, thereby effectively being uncovered which
is the same as first over, but in 4th or 5th, etc?? How long did a horse
sit on the outside without cover while looking to "flush" cover?
Did the horse have to "brush" to catch up to cover? Did the cover
not advance steadily, causing the horse to come wide earlier or from further
back than he should have, particularly at a fast part of the race?
To emphasize how tricky these can be, let's take a look at a few recent
examples at M(1). For each of the following, just look at the line, as it
might appear on the program. Close your eyes and imagine what kind of trip
you think the horse got. Do this before you read on:
AVON LADY 8 7°/6H 5°/3H 4°/3H 4/3T 4/2T 1:53.3 27.1
Looks like she was in some kind of flow on the outside. Perhaps she was
unable to find a spot on the rail, but picked up some cover? Maybe she had
some cover early on but that cover brushed to the top, leaving her out?
WRONG. This horse was parked the mile, 1st over!
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ARMBRO REPUBLICAN 4 7°/7T 6°/4T 5°/3H 4/2Q 4/3Q 1:54.4 28.3
Seems similar to AVON LADY, right? WRONG. This was a perfect 2nd-over trip
where the 1st-over horse was 1 ¾ back at the ¾ pole and had
collared the leader by the top of the stretch.
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Here's an interesting one:
RIGHT WAY 6 6°/3 5°/5T 4°/4 6/2 6/2T 1:58.0 30.2
Hard to tell here. Could have been hung 1st-over dangling out there?
Maybe was following cover? The fractions and the chart add meaning here.
Here's the chart:
PRIX D'NORMANDY 3 7/3T 9/8 7°°/7 3/1H 1/H 1:57.2 29.1
TRIPLE T SONIC 7 1°/NS 3/2H 3/2H 4/1H 2/H 1:57.2 30
I'M JUSTA KID 2 4/2 6/6T 8/8Q 7/3 3DH/1Q 1:57.3 29.1
YANKEE MERCURY 4 8/5Q 7°/6T 5°/5 5/1H 3DH/1Q 1:57.3 29.4
FANCY SPEED 9 5°/2 1°/1 1/1H 1/H 5/2T 1:58.0 31.1
RIGHT WAY 6 6°/3 5°/5T 4°/4 6/2 6/2T 1:58.0 30
KEY'S SUPER NOVA8 2°/NS 2/1 2°/1H 2/H 7/3 1:58.0 31
DACION 5 9/7H 8°/7T 6°/7 8/3T 8/3 1:58.0 29
MOUNTAIN HURRAH 1 3/1 4/5T 9/10H 9/13T 9/38 2:05.0 36.1
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Looks like this horse had perfect cover at the ¼, which then sprinted
on and made the top and was left hanging. Then picked up cover again in
the far turn, but was blindswitched at the top of the lane. Right? WRONG
AGAIN! A review of the replay shows a totally different story! He tried
to leave, was outgunned by #7. Then was looped from behind by #8 (never
had any cover) and was looped quickly by #9, so he never had that cover.
Then, after the half, he actually HIT THE PYLONS and was on the inside for
the whole turn. In fact, I don't see how they even charted him as being
parked at ¾, cuz he was buried on the rail! CHARTING MISTAKES are
much more frequent than you can imagine. Actually, even if he was technically
'out' at the ¾, it makes no difference. Fact is - he took the whole
turn on the inside. And he had horse with no place to run for most of the
stretch.
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Okay… one more:
ARMBRO RUTHLESS 8 5°/6T 5°/5Q 4°/2H 4x/3Q x9x/7 1:56.2 29.0
What's the story here? Not much. This one actually had a nice, restful cover
trip. Had cover at the ¼, lost it as that one tucked, picked up live
cover again, rode that cover nicely all the way around the turn before slipping
on a banana peel.
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These are some of the things you have to be able to tell. These circles
can mean lots of things. They make all the difference between having a nice,
relaxing, albeit a little longer - journey, versus having what is a "stealth"
killer trip that just looks like an outside cover trip. And as we saw, they
can actually be charting mistakes and be misleading in that way. "Parked-the-mile"
trips put a premium on your ability and willingness to take the time to
go over the charts, and on your observation ability while watching the races
or replays. |
