This is a long one - but since there’s only one start to the Pocono meet, I’m only going to have one chance to do it … plus I was having fun with it…. Plus I got on my soap box for a while, so………

With the opening of Pocono Downs this weekend, it’s important to recognize some of the differences in how we handicap and play the Downs, versus our approach at the Meadowlands. Throughout this edition, I’ve included several pop-quiz questions to test your knowledge of Racing and Betting at Pocono Downs.

Note that many of these differences may be applicable in whole or in part to other local tracks where you might be betting as well. There are big differences in a) analyzing races, b) handicapping and c) betting. It’s difficult sometimes to shift gears back and forth between the tracks. I’ll admit my approach to the Meadowlands can frustrate many people because most of you would like it better if I "picked more winners," but at the Meadowlands, you really aren’t pressured to do this.

The reason is that because the racing at the Meadowlands is so competitive, there is rarely any need to key on favorites. It is good to know who the favorite should be, and as I have pointed out so many times before, a good bet is always a horse you feel should be the favorite but isn’t. But as a result of the competitiveness of the cards, you can pretty much sit out any race where you’re key horse is going off as the public choice and still have more than enough races to bet. You won’t collect as often, but if you can identify values and bet smartly, you can make out even with a lower hit percentage. But this takes more patience than many have. So, the inclination comes to bet lower priced horses who will win more often, but are not nearly as profitable. Nevertheless, I know I frustrate some of you when I select a horse to "key on" who I KNOW does not have the best chance to win, or even the second best - because it seems like we are "picking losers." BUT REMEMBER - WE AREN’T PICKING FOLKS, WE ARE HANDICAPPING. PICKING IS FOR LOSERS. (I had an interesting conversation with a very bright student of the game in the chat room, who got a 1-hour lesson on the difference - topic for one of my next couple of installments) But believe me when I say that if you can put your ego aside and be willing to lose more often, you will make out much better at the Meadowlands.

But handicapping, racing and betting at Pocono is a whole different ballgame than at the Meadowlands in a number of respects. Here are some of the biggest differences, what they mean and how I adjust to them. Incidentally, these same principles might hold at any number of tracks which share certain characteristics with Pocono, so listen up and see which ones might apply to the track you bet:

1. Competitiveness of Racing - A place like Pocono cards a much higher percentage of "non-competitive" races than the Meadowlands. By "non-competitive" I mean that from a handicapping perspective, when it comes to estimating the chances of the various horses winning, one or two horses seem to stick out like a sore thumb. Time for our first pop-quiz of the day:

The correct answer here, of course is d) a $8,000 - $150,000 claiming handicap. In fact last year (I swear I am not making this up) there was actually one scheduled Open where there was a horse who had won in $6,000 claimers 2 weeks prior, 2 others who had raced recently for between $10,000 and $20,000, some other miscellaneous non-winners of $2,500 and non-winners of $3,000 in last 5 starts, and 2 horses shipping in from the Meadowlands, whose names I have forgotten - one was in for a $125,000 tag the week prior and the other for $150,000!! In the interest of fair play, the racing secretary assigned the latter two a disadvantageous starting position - they were scheduled to start from inside the paddock! No, just kidding - of course, they had the 7 and 8 hole - how generous of them. Fortunately, I was not the only one to realize how ridiculous this was. In fact God himself (a long-time harness racing fan - by the way, he had Ben Hurr and Massala boxed in the exacta during "The Ten Commandments") found this matchup to be kind of nutty, so he ordered up some really violent thunderstorms which forced the cancellation of the entire card!

The race may turn out to be very competitive in action, but that’s later. In fact, just by looking at the cards at Pocono, you would swear that the favorites would win like 50+ percent of the time - but they don’t. They win a bit higher percentage than the Meadowlands, but not all that much. How can this be? Simple. Though so many races look non-competitive from the start, the overall caliber of the horses is much lower, making them less predictable. This makes horses that stick out like sore thumbs much more vulnerable than one’s at the Meadowlands, so this has the effect of leveling off the percentage of winning favorites somewhat. But they do win more often there. So how does this affect us? Well it means simply that you either a)have to be even more disciplined and be willing to lay off even more races (I know most of you are still betting far too many races than you should), or b) you have to find a way to profitably use some of the favorites in your playing. Though I still seek value, and I still have a definite bias toward higher priced horses for reasons which I enumerated in my article months ago, I find myself using favorites in some way shape or form, more often.

2. Size of Pools - another quick test of your Pocono knowledge:

The correct answer of course is d) - cause a stampede to the windows by the farmers resulting in odds of 1-5 and a potential minus-pool.

The Meadowlands is like heaven for bettors. I assume that most of you are relatively small bettors. Myself, when I bet a race, I can bet as little as $20 or as much as a few hundred on a race, depending on the circumstances. At the Meadowlands for example, it would not be uncommon for me to put a couple of hundred to win on a horse or play maybe 2 or 3 $50 exactas and a few $20 exactas. Or maybe I might play 2 or 3 $50 or $100 doubles - you get the approximate drift. At the Meadowlands, this is BUBKIS. Even my biggest bet doesn’t do squat to the toteboard, so I can pretty much bet with impunity.

But at a place like Pocono, I can rock the tote board BIG TIME, and I don’t consider myself a "big bettor.’ In fact one time(again, I swear this actually happened), about 10 or 11 years ago, not being that familiar with the Pocono scene and before simulcasting, I found myself there on a weekday night and without giving it much thought, I got up to make my bet early - it was a $300 win bet. Immediately after my wager, there was $321 in the win pool (which was about half of what the total average win pool was), $310 of which was on my horse, $300 of which was mine! This started a chain reaction after the horses came out to the extent that at one point, there was about $1,400 in the pool, some $1,350 of which was on my horse. The judges then pulled the horses off the track (I swear this happened) and read the drivers the riot act. Of course, they were, for a change, innocent of all charges. It was just some dope like me who forgot where he was.

The point is this - when you are betting at small pools, it really doesn’t take that much money to have an effect on the tote board. I swear that a $50 daily double ticket takes the price down. So even if you are say a $20 - $50 bettor, there are times where you have to keep an eye on this. As for me, I do not look at the odds on my horse before I bet - I have to include my bet and estimate what the odds are going to be after I bet, which makes value hunting even harder, and in fact, many horses that I bet there become one of the top choices as a result of my bet - which makes it challenging. Challenging, but not impossible.

Another place where the tiny pools hurt you is in the trifectas. Another pop quiz:

The correct answer here of course is d) less than the second horse paid to place.

I rarely put a nickel into the trifecta pool for a number of reasons. But primarily, the pool is so small that trifecta never pay what they deserve. I constantly see trifectas at Pocono that pay like $50 which would be $400 at the Meadowlands, if only because of the size of the pool. I have never seen more trifectas under $30 than you see at Pocono. It just isn’t’ worth it. The only times that I will pay into that pool is on a Saturday night, in the summer tourist season and early on in the evening before people get tapped out. Another funny thing that happened to me (again, true story) was a 13th race trifecta I bet - winner paid $60, place horse was 14-1 with a 20-1 for third - my reward for this handicapping feat - $129. This was a sure $5000 plus ticket at the Meadowlands, but as I found out when I called back later to verify - I had the only winning ticket in the house, but that was all that was in the pool (they don’t show the trifecta pools at Pocono, by the way). So a valuable lesson was learned. This leads me naturally to the next major area,

3. Pari-mutuel Wagering Rules - it really pays to know the rules of the game before you play. Time for another question!!!!!

The correct answer here is, of course, d) about 21 cents.

You wouldn’t go to a casino and play blackjack without knowing whether or not soft-doubling was allowed, would you? Well, at Pocono, the tracks ‘take," the amount they extract from the pools before computing the odds is exorbitant for the exotics, particularly the trifectas, where it is someplace in the mid-30% range. When you combine this fact with the size of the pools, you can see readily that investing in these pools is just bad business. And remember my first commitment - THOU SHALT TREAT THIS HOBBY LIKE A BUSINESS. If it doesn’t make business sense, if you wouldn’t do it if you were making widgets, don’t do it if you are betting horses.

4. How "Well Bet" is the pool - this is a very big difference and is the source of some good opportunities.
Again, a good opportunity to test your intimate knowledge of the Wilkes-Barre crowd:

The correct answer here is, of course, d) tarrot cards.

What is a "well bet" pool? This is a pool which contains money from many smart handicappers, smart bettors and insiders. The Meadowlands is a much more smartly bet pool than Pocono. There are a lot of very sharp people, with decent amounts of money, like myself, betting into the Meadowlands pool from all over the country. They bet a much larger amount per capita than do the non-informed bettors and leisure players who are there for a night out or dinner. Pocono is not this way. The percentage of dollars being bet into the Pocono pool from what I call smart handicappers/betters is not that much. In fact, on a per capita basis, I would say that there are as many small smart dollars going in there as large. And the percentage of insider money is also relatively small, because owners and drivers there cannot go plunging in with really big bets because of the pool size. Plus, so many of them, and their owners, are small time and broke, that they cannot do as much of it even if they wanted to. Meadowlands owners, trainers and drivers are a much more upscale group who, if they want to bet their horse, can easily go in there with thousands of dollars on any race. Finally, Pocono Downs is not a very popular track for out of towners to bet into. Ah ha … another quiz:

The correct answer here is, once again, d) the one carrying the simulcast feed from Pocono Downs.

When you are at the Meadowlands on a day when they are carrying the Pocono signal, very few people are betting Pocono. You can see all the people gathered around the televisions that are showing Mohawk or Windsor or Woodbine or the Meadows. And I think the same is true of other out-of-town tracks, who probably bet more money into the Meadowlands by simulcast in one Saturday night than they bet into the Pocono pool for the whole year. And finally, the Pocono’s are a big tourist area during the summer months, and the track attracts a lot of social visitors, who can’t bet worth a shit. They also have a lot of special events and giveaways there - the have raffles for cars and other prizes, the county fair, ethnic festivals, etc. All this has the effect of drawing a lot of riffraff (from a handicapping and betting perspective, not as people) if you don’t mind trying to watch the races with Polka music blaring in your ears!

But this heavy dose of handicapping riffraff is actually good for us ... the more stupid money into the pool, the better off we are! In fact, (and you purists will cringe when I say this) I can’t wait for them to bring slot machines! Why? Anything they do to bring more people to the track, the better off we are, as long as these people take some of their money and bet it, which statistically, they will do. The more uninformed money in the pool, the merrier as far as I am concerned. You know what I wouldn’t want to see, from a strict business sense? I would not want to see a large influx of sharp, well trained, well disciplined, well capitalized harness bettors, because these are much tougher competitors for me. They can bring all the sheep to the track that they want - let them give away a BMW every day for all I care!

But the nature of this money, creates some very good overlays and opportunities, if you play it right. The less sophisticated bettors pay attention to only the most obvious of possibilities. Few of them engage in smart wheeling or good trip-handicapping, and accordingly, there are a lot of exacta combinations which get left relatively unbet, even with the favorites. And relatively speaking, the exactas with the favorites underneath are often far more generous than those same type at a smartly-bet pool like the Meadowlands. So the key here is to capitalize on their lack of sophistication, lack of interest and lack of money to work the combos that have as good or even better chance of coming in, but which are 2,3,4, or 5 times the price of the one’s they are betting down. And the size of the pool doesn’t matter nearly as much, because it is displayed, and you know what the payoffs are, so you can make an intelligent judgment about whether you are getting value for your money or not. Also, the crowd there rarely notices a large bet into an exacta combo like they notice a big bet into the win pool. So I can bet a combo 50 times, what the price take a hit, but nobody jumps on.

RACING LOGISTICS

A couple of quick test questions here, as an indication of your keen observation of Pocono races:

5) TRACK BIAS - Once they get rolling and the weather gets a little warmer, Pocono Downs has a really outrageous speed bias, though last year, for some reason, things were a bit more balanced that usual. I cannot tell you how many nights I have gone through the programs up there, and finding out that maybe one horse a night wins from more that 2 lengths or so back at the ¾. This makes betting closers a risky proposition, but, that’s what we get paid for, right? But from a standpoint of trip handicapping, at the Meadowlands, you often feel like you need a weegee board to figure out how the race is gonna line up, and to tell you the honest to god truth - usually, I don’t give ten shits anyway, because I’m going to play the in-shape horses over the others, regardless. At Pocono, it’s a bit more predictable and it can be very well worth the additional little bit of time to try and figure out just what things might happen. The principal reason for trip handicapping up there is that often, the bomb that comes in second to the heavy favorite, setting up the exacta for $90 is not the second best horse, but rather, a manifestly inferior animal who stumbled into the trip. And many of these stumbles are somewhat predictable. And further, the brain-dead zombies up there don’t trip handicap at all, ever.

I don’t really follow Yonkers seriously, and I have not on any consistent basis for many years, but I grew up going there, and found it amazing how whenever the rail horse at any lick of early speed at all, even if he was 4th or 5th choice in the win betting, the exacta with him underneath was always bet down. This was because the rail was worth so much in terms of position, that the big bettors didn’t give a damn how fast the horse was, only that he stood a relatively good chance of at least maintaining his pocket position, and therefore, even if the heavy favorite got the top and drew off, even if he had been shuffled into the 3-hole, he was alive in the race for second. They were trip-handicapping the bottom half of the ticket.

Well, the same works at Pocono too, except, the people betting there are generally such simpletons that they don’t bother. The exacta payoffs almost always reflect the win odds, which is totally wrong.

In addition, there is a big difference in the way flow develops at Pocono as opposed to the Meadowlands, as in this question:

The correct answer is d) back in the paddock, approaching the stall. Many races at Pocono go single file for the entire first half, and you rarely see the type of flow as you would at the Meadowlands, which can take a leader at the quarter and shuffle him out by the ¾. The driver strategy in the final turn also has a lot to do with the outcome of the race. Loyal Pocono watchers should be able to handle this question, no sweat:

a) The correct answer is d) vehicular and pedestrian traffic in the parking lot.

This track ain’t the Meadowlands - even if you do have horse coming for home, you often have to bide your time since, if you go more than 3 wide, a missing persons report may be filed for the driver.

6) Drivers - well, I wouldn’t call all the guys up there drivers. Instead, let’s call them "the poor slobs who are being tugged along by the horses" or TPSWBTAH for short - oh, forget - I’ll just say "they" - you know who I’m talking about. There is an even greater disparity in the driving talent up there than there is at the Meadowlands. Here’s a pop quiz:

The correct answer here is, of course d) - we would expect them to lose all the time like they do now.
It doesn’t matter what track they’re racing at, because they suck, and couldn’t win if you put them behind the wheel of the Caddy that follows the horses around the track. The point is that guys like this don’t win not because of who they are racing against, but because they stink. It doesn’t matter what track they are at. At the Meadowlands, none of the regular drivers really stink - the ones that don’t win as often usually don’t because they don’t have the horses and because they are competing against the best. Given enough horse, all of the regular guys can win. At Pocono, many horses can be eliminated from win contention by virtue of the driver who sucks, regardless of what shape the horse appears to be in. Can’t really do this at the Meadowlands, as even the guys who don’t quite win there share, still win sometimes. And the difference in drivers seems to reflect itself differently. At the Meadowlands, a horse may go just as fast with Iulo as with Lachance, except it never wins with Ken driving, but does with Mike. At Pocono, on the other hand….hmmmm, let’s see… how about another quickie quiz:

For those of you who are more mathematically inclined might do better at this one:

Of course the correct answer here is (d) somewhere in the 1:50 - 1:53 range, depending on whether Campbell goes to the whip.
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Point here being that, at least in my observations, the driver differences there seem to manifest themselves more in times that merely in how well the horse places. Also, many of the drivers, even the pretty decent ones, seem to have very pre-defined racing styles, and … well, let’s take another quiz :

Of course, the correct answer here is d). Though there has been some debate has to whether the correct answer is c) or d), at least we know that Haley’s Comet does in fact arrive. Since there have been no occurrences of d) in recorded human history, it is unclear has to which happens more often.

To see if this trend is still true, I just took a lookie at the first few races – qualifiers of the season, and here are the results (I swear I haven’t changed anything):

MID SOMERS KNIGHT 3 1 1 1 1/4 1/1Q 2:03.3 31 M.H. SIMONS
VOLATILE ROAD 4 1 1 1 1/1H 1/2H 2:03.1 32.2 M.H. SIMONS
TOWNER'S LEGACY 4 2 2 2 2/T 1/H 2:01.1 30.1 M.H. SIMONS

In his other 2 wins, he got away 4th, but had the lead before the half!

Interestingly, even the not-too-bad drivers up there generally seem only capable of winning in certain ways. You have to build this into your expectations. On the good front, over the past few years, several new drivers have taken the summer vacations at Pocono, like Joe Pavia (famous quote: " how come it’s so damned easy at Pompano but I can’t win a race at the Meadowlands), Kevin "shoe" Sizer. This year, Buddy "Yes I’m Still Alive" Gilmour (famous quote: "I never saw a horse a didn’t hold back") is joining the group, and will be giving lessons to the young drivers not only on driving, but how to beat the breath-a-lyzer test in the paddock as well. I think Eaton, as in "I’m fat cuz I’ve been Eaton too much" has finally done the math on Monticello (10 wins a day X 300 race days/year = 3,000 wins X 4 cents/win = total driver earnings of $1,200 for the year) and is coming to Pocono as well, so it should be fun!

But it’s a lot of fun up there and a nice low-key atmosphere, unless you walk inside and block one of the simulcast televisions showing the thoroughbreds, at which point you will be cursed and screamed at my masses of people simultaneously. It’s a pretty drive, the food is good and for those of you who think that harness racing actually performed by miniature toy horses inside the television set, at Pocono you can sit outside right in front of the finish line, hear the clippety-clop and smell the horse shit. But I like the small-town atmosphere - at the Meadowlands, they take so insufferably long between races, that it get's past my bed time on weekends. At Pocono, well, let's do another question:

Here, in a big surprise, the correct answer is not the one you think it is, it is in fact d) "2nd race results official - 3rd race pacers behind the gate - it’s post time!"

I swear there are times there when you don't have a chance to collect, take a leak, go back to your seat and turn the page on the program ... so you have to have your homework done ahead of time when you go to Pocono Downs. At the Meadowlands, I read entire chapters in unrelated books while Ken Warkentin drones on and on an on about the Trump Taj Mahal best bet, or some other nonsense. Let's go -- they're done, next race . There's somethng special about being able to see 13 races in under 3 hours. At the Meadowlands, I have to shave before the 12th race or my wife won't recognize me!

But all-in-all, it’s a fun place to handicap and bet at, and I usually do well there. Of course, doing to well there can also cause problems. One last multiple choice question before we go:

Correct response is d) A lengthy delay, followed by a mixture of twenties, tens, fives, quarters, pennies and maybe even a food voucher. I don't know, it's kind of a pain, I guess, but there's a real feeling of power you get from making the teller to downstairs to get more money to pay off your ticket - makes you feel important, like you're breaking the bank or something.

Also, the track surface is more variable from night to night there than at the Meadowlands, particularly late in the meet, say after mid-September, even in good weather, it can get really...oh what the heck, one last quiz to spot those truly keen observers at Pocono Downs:

At the end of the meet last year, it looked to me like they were buried up to their knees - and the track was labeled "fast" - watch in shape horses leaving Pocono at the end of the meet - they are often in very good shape, and because of the track surface, even if it is labeled fast, they often have such slow times that they can make excellent bets when shipping out - we did very well last fall with sharp Pocono shippers at Monticello, Yonkers and Garden State.

Good Luck and hope to see some of you there!