Friday night, November 6 was a distinctly opposite night to that of Saturday November 7 (which we discussed previously). On Saturday, speed was disappearing like a fart in a stiff breeze! On Friday though, 6 of the 11 races were won directly on the front end, with a 7th being a close call! In 8 of the races, the leader at the 3/4 pole won. In 2 of the races, the winner was second. In only one event did the winner come from further back - let's see how we would approach the charts of an evening like this. The first rule of thumb is never disparage a winning effort on the front end, even if speed is winning. I don't care if the front end wins every race. A win is a win. We do, on the other hand, want to question the shape of those who were unable to hang on without an excuse. We also want to take a closer look at those coming from off the pace in what seem like lackluster closing attempts.
Race 1 was won from the front end by KASH IN TIME, who made 2 moves - one for position and another for the retake after the quarter. This race featured one of the most front-end-loaded set of fractions of the whole evening, so his win was nothing to sneeze at. Also, RICTHER LOBELL left at 47-1 from post 7. I don't know if he wanted the top or was just looking for a spot, but after being parked 4th on the outside at the quarter, he kept on going with it and was second uncovered past the 3/4 pole. He collapsed, but KIT held on for a handy score. In fact, to see how impressive KIT's win was, he actually drew away from the horse in the pocket through all of that, namely, Sand St. Partners.
Race 2 was a race where the speedsters bear watching also, despite the big front-end bias. Why? Look at the fractions - all the action in this race was on the front. So let's see who made the pace. USHER HANOVER left alertly, but yielded easily to CASCADE OF FIRE who took the lead to the half, facing a challenge going to that point by the deserving favorite EARLS COURT ROAD. Following that one was the eventual winner of the race, FRED DIRECT, who would be undefeated if it were not for 38 straight losses! In the lane, ECR tired, FD drifted out and COF tried to come in-between. UH closed well for second. Certainly, CASCADE OF FIRE made most of the early pace in this race, and bears watching. CONNOR SEELSTER is highlighted here as he was sharp going into this race, who we were watching, but he drew the worst of it and really cannot be faulted for not closing all that well, given the bias. Races 3 and 4 are the types of races that you want to look at on a night where speed is holding up very well. What makes these races different? Negative splits, that's what! Races where the pace quickened coming home. It is impressive under ordinary conditions when a closer can race impressively in this type of race, but it takes on even deeper meaning on a night where closers aren't closing! Unfortunately, Race 3 was a simulcast from Pocono Downs. Actually it wasn't, but it was Garden State horses doing an imitation of Pocono Downs, going single file except for some half-assed first over move from way back which never got within the same zip code of the leader. So we can't really look at this race.
Race 4 appears like a boat race as well with THRUWAY HERSHEY toying with the field on the front end - that's what it looked like to me when I saw it! But a closer look at the chart reveals something interesting. Despite being first over from a totally impossible spot, DON'T PUT ME DOWN who lost ground on the turn and got looped, came back on and, in fact, was the only horse to make anything that even remotely resembled a stretch gain on the leader - 1½ lengths, which doesn't seem like much, but was more than anyone else was able to do! This one bears watching as well. In races 6 and 7, the pace in the final stages of the races were fast, though not quite as fast as races 3 and 4. Given how tough it was to close on this evening, it pays to look at these races as well.
In the 6th, AT YOUR SEVICE N took the front after the quarter, and was challenged first over in the second half by TOWNSHIP LINE, who wore that one down with a solid first over effort. This effort must be respected even more. Everyone else in this race appear to have faltered in the lane, except for KING'S DOMAIN, who left from the 8 hole and got a spot - move #1. He had cover that was not able to get to the leaders, and from the headstretch marker, managed to gain 3/4 of a length. Not too shabby. Again, ordinarily it would not mean much, but on this kind of night, it is a sneaky strong stretch effort. Also, KD had been in shape a few starts ago before being parked and breaking in recent starts. One to watch.
Race 7 featured another speed demolition derby, with BEACH ST PARTNERS going down the road to score at 16-1. Computer Scooter came first over, but really did not seriously challenge the winner. Following that one was Bart Maverick, who went 3 wide around CS approaching the top of the lane, but could not gain an inch on the winner. The effort of LIGHTNING SAKRA, who was sharp coming off 2 wins in a row, was very interesting here. He followed at totally dead MIN NUKE, tried to follow the move of BM 3-wide past the 3/4 pole and managed to pick up ground on the winner. Again, a measly 3/4 of a length. Still, given the action on this night, he clearly outpaced almost everyone else, including BM when it counted. The horse who closed the best came from the toughest of all possible spots, KINNEY HANOVER, who was sharp going in, and remains one to keep track of this upcoming week.
The only other interesting chart on this night is that of Race 10. In this race, the middle half of 57.1 was, relatively speaking, by far the fasted middle portion of the whole night. In fact, the 28 flat 3rd quarter was the fastest period. MAJOR BLUR, the winner went first over challenging during this very part of the race, so his win becomes even more impressive that we might ordinarily think. Working equally hard in this spot was CAM'S ICON who quarter-moved to the lead, fought off one challenge from the favorite Armbro Potent, and was still dueling eyeball to eyeball with MAJOR BLUR at the 3/4 mark before collapsing. This energy was very positive energy, and bears following up on. At the start of the article, we said that there was only one horse who came from any further back to actually win. Common sense says we should at least give a look at this one:
GSP ,19981106,6,11 GARDEN STATE PARK RACE DATE: 11/06/1998
RACE: 11 TYPE: LATE BETTING CLASS: M15000 CL GAIT:PACE
EVENT:
PURSE: 6,750 TRACK COND: FAST TIME: 0:27.3 - 0:57.0 - 1:26.0 -1:55.3
-- TIME --
HORSE NAME POST 1/4 1/2 3/4 STRETCH FINISH ACTUAL LQ ODDS
HAZEL GREEN 5 9 9p 7p 4/2H 1/1T 1:55.3 28.4 *220
KRISTEN'S DOLL 4 8 8 9p 8/4T 2/1T 1:56.0 29 3520
DANDY AMOUNT 1 5 4p 2 2/1 3/2 1:56.0 30 570
LAST KNIGHT OUT 9 4 1p 1 1/1 4/2H 1:56.0 30 390
SO BRIGHT 7 1 2 3 3/1H 5/2T 1:56.1 30 500
TWO POCKET 3 7 7p 5p 6/3T 6/3H 1:56.1 29.4 790
MOTOR TOY 2 6 6p 4p 5/3H 7/4Q 1:56.2 30.1 1260
SOUTHWIND KATY 10 2p 3 8 7/4T 8/5T 1:56.4 30 720
ARTACHES 8 3 5 6 9/7T 9/9 1:57.2 30.4 3290
FACE THE TABLE 6 10 10 10 10/8Q 10/9Q 1:57.2 30.2 4330
DRIVERS: C.R. MANZI, R.D. PIERCE, L.R. OUELLETTE, J.G. MOISEYEV,
J.L. RANDALL, G. BRENNAN, J.A. MORRILL JR, R.J. POULIN, H.G. PARKER,M. LACHANCE
Ordinarily, we would not pay that much attention to closers who storm home in a 58.3 half after there was at 57 flat opener, unless they were already in good shape without question. But given how tough the outside of the track apparently was, we have 2 horses here whose efforts certainly should not be disregarded. In fact, they should be given a definite nod of attention: HAZEL GREEN, and KRISTEN'S DOLL. The latter went off at 35-1, indicating that the crowd did not think much of her, but this might signify a significant improvement. Off of last Friday night's action then, we'll keep an extra eye open
for KASH IN TIME, RICTHER LOBELL, CASCADE OF FIRE, DON'T PUT ME DOWN, TOWNSHIP
LINE, KING'S DOMAIN, LIGHTNING SAKRA, MAJOR BLUR, & CAM'S ICON - these
horses MUST be considered SHARP. HAZEL GREEN and KRISTEN'S DOLL must also
be given credit in terms of a shape upgrade off of their closing effort
in the finale. |