After a week off, we’ll continue with what we started last week, Small Track Survival Tactics - basically addressing some of the challenges of handicapping and betting at tracks which card a higher percentage of non-competitive races. I got quite a few questions on last week, prompting me to explain why I feel that middle halves are important with these types of races ….. why not look at the horse’s ¾ time?

It is true that many of these seemingly formless pieces appear inseperable, and it is also true that in many cases, the ones that can manage to just be around at the ¾ might be able to out-stagger the rest of them to the wire.

A horse’s ¾ time is the sum of his 1st quarter plus his middle half. Because the dominant horse or couple of horses often leave and are racing at the front, when you have fields which lack both talent and form, very often the fields get unusually spread out and often the flow is limited. Unless a horse leaves, he may very well find himself well behind after the quarter even though he was capable of going faster. At this point, he is not going to be able to have a fast ¾ time … because his first quarter was already very slow as a result of not leaving and being caught in the back. So, the key part that I have noticed is the ability of these horses to pace their way into some modicum of contention in the middle half of the race.

I wish I had a bunch of examples here to show you, but I’ve been basically staying away from all these races, but most people don’t have the discipline to sit out races like I do.

SUPPLEMENT: Here's an example coming from Pocono Downs (tonight) Tuesday May 19, Race 13 --- 13th race at Pocono is always a good time to test your 'exterminating' skills!...... Here's the program:

Boy, this seems like a lock, doesn't it? Trackman and Railbird both like the 1. I think the five should have a tough time losing this one. The rest of them look like peanut butter! So, since the 5 looks like a real 3-5 standout, and none of the rest of them can even remotely be considered sharp, what are the options here? Well, boxing 5-1 is stupid. 8-5 wouldn't be a bad price on the #5 - I might make a straight win bet on him at that price ... the alternative is to look for value in the exactas. The typical angles for finding a horse underneath might be: Go for the #1, since he as closed around 30 in both of his last starts - that's nice, if you want to root home an $8 exacta. Another angle is to look for the leaver - Car Buff seems like he has some early foot, maybe he can get the pocket? Cam's Soulmate seems like the low exacta to me, sporting two of the better final times along with a 29.3 last quarter.

Using my 'middle half' theory, let's take a look at them. In the #1's last race, the middle half of the race was 1:00.2, and he closed 3 legnths in that area, so he did a 59.4, on the rail. Using the same type of computation, he paced at 59.2 the week before. Cam's Soulmate has paced his middle halves recently in the 1:00 area. Look at the rest of them. Then look at #8 Cors Tour - last week, his race went a middle half of 58.3 and he closed 4 lengths while uncovered. So his middle half was actually 57.4! The race before, again his race had a 58.3 middle half and he paced evenly in that time.

Now I know what you're asking. Your saying, Steve, this horse was 1-23 last year, made $4,000 - how's this horse gonna get involved? He's going to get away last and could be a mile behind. My answer is: I don't care. He's going to be 2 zillion to 1, and the exacta even with the sore thumb will be decent, so I'll box him with the big chalk.

I’ve been very intrigued watching the mile track racing at Balmoral - especially the stretch run. Tell ya one thing - from my limited observations, if your horse has the lead at the top of the stretch, you can rip up your tickets! Also, I’ve noticed some of the lanes these guys pick in the stretch are very interesting to watch. Here, I’ve diagrammed a sample of what a stretch run might look like at the Meadowlands, and what that same thing might look like at Balmoral … the lines represent the approximate paths of the various horses:

Meadowlands:

Balmoral:

I mean, is it my imagination, or do these horses all look like they are punch drunk coming down the stretch? What have they been smoking? I haven't seen one of them pace what is even close to a straight line yet!

Anyway, back on track with handling the "Class B" tracks - many of the people who I listen to seem to be hunting for the horse that will be able to leave and get the trip behind the standout - my experience is that this is not nearly as important as the horse’s ability to gain contention by pacing a solid middle half on his own. You never know who is going to leave, and more importantly, the early move seems to take an inordinate amount out of the cheaper and out-of-shape stock. And often, several of them have the same idea and end up taking the starch out of each other in search for the pocket behind the standout, which, in many cases, ends up being a "phantom" pocket because they cannot keep up anyway and end up breaking their own wind.

Much of what I’ll say here is my observation based on my experience - I don’t have empirical evidence for it. If you like it - fine; if not - chuck it. But I’ve used it very sucessfully at such bastions of world-class racing such as Pocono and Monticello, and have found them profitable.

First, let me make some comments about a type of race that comes up over and over at these tracks, namely, the race where there are 2 horses who seem pretty darned close, but who together, seem to stand out like sore thumbs above all the other rats. Some quickie rules you can follow:

1. If you are going to bet one of them to win, never make your wager early, REGARDLESS OF HOW LONG THE LINES ARE and HOW MANY TIMES THE ANNOUNCER WARNS YOU THAT YOU MIGHT GET SHUT OUT. Therefore, never use the automatic teller machines to make these wagers, since, if you wait until the last moment to bet, you might get a machine that’s not working, or that has trouble reading your voucher. You might, in your haste, mis-punch your ticket. The largest crowds at the windows are usually from like 3 minutes to post until 1 minute to post. But it’s funny how, after the horses are behind the gate and the gate is moving, how you walk up to the windows and nobody is there. IF YOU ARE MAKING A SIMPLE WIN BET, you can approach the windows at this time. If, however, you are calling out exacta bets, leave yourself time to call them out and check the tickets.

2. If torn between these two, always bet the one with the higher win odds. But nothing is more frustrating than picking one who is, say, 5-2 while the other one is 7-5 and wind up with your horse at 8-5 while the other one wins and pays $6.00! At the smaller tracks, the odds fluctuate wildly as the money flows in at the end.

3. If it is not clear who will be the favorite, watch the flashes from 3 minutes - 2 minutes - 1 minute. If one of these two seemed to take money from, say, 5 or 6 minutes to the 3 minute mark, it may appear that this horse will be the favorite. The other horse will frequently take money from the 3 minute mark to the 1 minute mark, and as of that time, might have moved into favorite status. This horse (the one that takes money from about 3 minutes to about 1 minute) rarely ends up the favorite. He is usually the one who goes off at the highest odds.

This has nothing to do with racing, and is just human behavior. When the crowd sees the 2 who seem inseperable, with about 3 minutes to go, they all say, "oooooo look - Cheese Eater Lobell is 5-2, I’m betting!" Then, the odds frequently "rebound" or narrow, as they probably should, but usually, the last bounce is away from the horse who got the money in those 2 or 3 "rebound" minutes. (smart Aleks out there might say - "hey Steve, how can the odds go and bounce back in the other direction in the last minute when you just told us that the windows are empty then? --- I think it is because of how the simulcast money is processed and reflected in the final odds – this money is usually in the primary direction of the horse who was meant to be the favorite in the first place, and this ‘flash’ comes in at the end!)

4. Rarely will it be worth the money to box the 2 horses. If you insist on betting an exacta, it will have to be one, cold combination. If you are correct and the horses chances are pretty close to even, never bet the combination with the betting favorite on top - always play the second horse on top.

Now, as for the races which feature one standout who seems to be sharp, an a group of shapeless rejects from the Amish Country:

1. Don’t be afraid to make a straight win bet on a favorite - at the Meadowlands, I will rarely, if ever, intentionally make a win bet on a favorite. Why not? Because there’s plenty of in-shape horses to bet who are competitive and at good prices. There’s plenty of action, and there is no reason that you need to bet, unless you just need the action. At the lower level tracks, though, I will make straight win bets on some horses who end up going off as the favorite. Again, the value has to be there - you have to be able to accurately assess what the horse’s chances are. If I think a horse should be even money, and he is 8-5 or 9-5, I might make the wager. At the Meadowlands, I simply won’t.

2. Never bet trifectas which include the favorite - I have not made a trifecta bet yet at Pocono this season, though I probably will bet one or two. Again, the pools are so small and the take so high, why beat your brains out with less reliable horses attempting to catch a triple that pays a mere fraction of what it would at a major track with good handle. Why work harder for less money? If you have to bet them, okay, but for Pete’s sake don’t put the favorite in there - anywhere. If you are going to make that bet, at least be contrary enough to go and beat the standout.

3. Use the standout creatively in exactas - again, at the smaller venues, usually one or two combos with the favorite are bet very hard, and there are several others which pay much more. See what you feel these other horses’ chances are versus the ‘live’ numbers - you can often find combos that are paying 2 or 3 times the ‘live’ ones, with horses who, IN THE RACE FOR SECOND, do not have chances that are only ½ or 1/3 of the ‘live’ ones.

4. In races with a clear, sore-thumb standout, utilize the 4-horse exacta box - now many of us use 2-horse boxes, and I use 3-horse boxes all the time at a place like the Meadowlands, but at the small-time track, I think the most effective weapon is the 4-horse box with the standout! It is a total of 12 bets. 24 bucks with full, $2 tickets. This gives you the chance to, in effect, go against the favorite with a 3-horse box, and have the favorite as a ‘saver’. Because a limited number of combos with the standout favorite are almost always way overbet, there’s value there - and the 4-horse combination is much more effective when you are trying to cash in on low-talent, out-of-shape horses whose chances might be greatly affected by some small thing that happens in the race. If you get lucky and kick out the favorite all together, you have some real nice numbers, and you’ll have a few decent ones even with the standout. I rarely will use the 3-horse box at the small-time track in a race with a standout versus a bunch of out-of-shapers.

5. If you wish to bet a seemingly non-comptetive horse on top against a clearly superior standout favorite, bet an equal amount to win and show. Never bet to place. I have stats on this one. It just does not pay. In terms of expected return, win-show has the highest expected return versus win-place or accross-the-board.

6. If there is another horse whose chances you actually like better than the horse who obviously appears to be a mortal lock - always box the 2. Don’t be affraid to put in the small amount of extra money. So you might play this other horse on top of 3 or 4 others - if so, play him underneath the favorite, EVEN IF YOU DO NOT THINK THE FAVORITE IS ALL THAT GOOD. This is a major departure from my betting at the Meadowlands. At that track, I will NEVER just throw in a hedge bet under the favorite for no reason, other than that he is the favorite. I am never running scared. I take my stand, and I have the confidence that in the long run, I will be proven right and all the other bettors will be proven wrong. Winning experience is what gives me this confidence. But at the small-time track, I will almost always spend the extra money to throw in the ticket with the favorite on top, as a hedge.

7. When comparing a bunch of horses which seem equally terrible (for the purposes of including in the exactas) ANY HORSE WHO WON HIS LAST RACE gets the nod. I DON’T CARE IF ALL THE OTHER HORSES IN THE RACE FELL DOWN!

8. When comparing a bunch of horses which seem equally terrible, any one who is currently trained by a trainer that has either not sent out a winner yet, or who sends out very few, is NEVER A CANDIDATE for my wager. (of course, if it appears as though such a horse actually may be in shape, then you can, and should, consider wagering on him).

9. When comparing a bunch of horses which seem equally terrible, any horse who seemed to run a decent race out of nowhere in his last race, ON A SLOPPY TRACK, is never a candidate for the bet - this is especially true of older horses.

10. Finally, if I am truly torn between 2 or more cheese eaters, and cannot use any of the above to figure out which roach to include in the exacta - the one with the highest odds gets my bet.

So there you have it …. Some of the things which, based on my experience, seem to be very sound and profitable ways of dealing with what seems to be tough conditions at the lower-tier tracks with smaller handle. Of course, the ultimate solution to this is to limit your bets very severely. Those of you who follow the Pocono section of the site will notice that I didn’t have a whole lot to say during the early stages of the meet where there was just too much of these types of races ….. but for the most part, on Friday and Saturday nights between Memorial day and the end of September, there are fewer of these types of horror show races. So I didn’t bet very many races at Pocono until the action started heating up …. (remember how few races I had actually bet in the model betting)….. but if you must face these conditions, and need more action, take some of the above to heart.