For this week's edition of Handicapping Corner, I will share some of the impeccable insights that I have gained from studying the material published by one of my peers in the world of handicapping instruction.
Playing 2-year-olds often gives handicappers headaches due to their unpredictability. Sharp handicappers realize that it is silly to look for horses that might be improving or rounding into form and other elements of shape and often look for situations where there is a solid morning-line favorite that stands out like a sore thumb, and who is aided by the scratches of all logical contenders, leaving the entire race in the lap of the favorite, in order to pick up some easy cash from those less-knowlegeable boobs who fail to spot this.
The race in question is Race 2 at Hazel Park, Monday October 11, 1999. Here's the program:
The horse of interest is, of course, #2 RASBERRY WORTHY. The 2-1 morning line favorite, a 2-year-old daughter of that famous Michigan sire N V WORTHY, has several things going for her here. Not only does this cross-stepping cutie pie have more money on her card than the rest of the field combined, she has solid early speed from an inside post, has won 14 out of 18, including her last 11 in a row wire to wire, interrupted only by a couple of races in which she was scratched. Additionally, she has the driver with the best UDR in the field and has been consistently trotting miles that are a full 3-7 seconds faster than anyone else in the field. It appears as though she could fall down and still win. Nevertheless, astute handicappers are not easily fooled and will not fall into this trap- they know that she could fall twice down and lose.
In this case, however, "in-the-know" horse players took careful note of the scratches in tonight's card, which eliminated all horses with even the most remote chance to score the upset: #1-CLASSY ELIZABETH, who had shown early speed in winning her last was scratched. #6-QUICK ROVA (3-1 on morning line), the second winning money earner in the field, who was second to the favorite in her last start, was also itched. The third choice, #7 SPARTAN JOY, winner of 3 of her last 5 was excused from tonight's performance as was #8 BIRDSALL ANNIE, the only other horse with even a lick of early speed.
All these factors pointed to #2 RASBERRY WORTHY as the logical play here for the really shrewd and on-the-ball players at Hazel Park on this evening. For those smart enough to notice this, and brave enough to risk their capital and make this bold play, they were well rewarded with a handsome parimutual payout of $2.40 for their well-toted selection and were quick to point out that, while this was a bit on the chalky side, this was a better return than they could get in the bank!
HP ,19991011,6,02 HAZEL PARK RACEWAY RACE DATE: 10/11/1999
RACE: 02 TYPE: LATE BETTING CLASS: MI COLT FL GAIT: TROT
EVENT:
PURSE: 17,500 TRACK COND: FAST TIME: 0:30.0 - 1:02.1 - 1:32.3 - 2:02.4
-- TIME --
HORSE NAME POST 1/4 1/2 3/4 STRETCH FINISH ACTUAL LQ ODDS
RASBERRY WORTHY 1 1 1 1 1/1T 1/3H 2:02.4 30.1 *20
ROMPAWAY STACEY 4 3 3 4 4/3Q 2/3H 2:03.2 30.1 800
JULIE ROVA 2 2 2 3 2/1T 3/5H 2:03.4 31 730
BENN'S DARLING 3 4 4 5p 5/4Q 4/7H 2:04.1 31 1120
HONEE KAHOONAH 5 5 5p 2p 3/2H 5/7T 2:04.2 31.3 960
SPARTAN JOY SCRATCHED
BIRDSALL ANNIE SCRATCHED
CLASSY ELIZABETH SCRATCHED
QUIK ROVA SCRATCHED
DRIVERS: B.W. KRAMER, G.F. O'MARA, M.T. DOKEY, C.A. PUTNAM JR,
M.K. WEBSTER, SCRATCHED, SCRATCHED, SCRATCHED, SCRATCHED