Handicapping Corner

with Steve M.

SEPTEMBER GOLD CLUB CONTEST

For our GOLD CLUB contest for this month, we are NOT going to do something stupid, but instead, something useful. I know that many people have not gone back through previous editions of Handicapping Corner, and many of you read them once and have since forgotten much of what you read. Going back and reviewing is a very good thing to do and may help you find the answers to many things you are struggling with currently. So, you can thank Al P. for this month's GOLD CLUB torture!

Since we have so many new viewers and everyone wants to get into GOLD CLUB, we are going to make sure that you all are paying your dues - that you are truly ready for GOLD CLUB.

The following quiz is 25 questions about handicapping. The answers to ALL of these questions can be found in previous editions of Handicapping Corner.

The 20 best scores will get invited to the CLUB -- we will have 20 for GARDEN STATE and 20 for BALMORAL. In order to qualify, you must get a passing grade, which is a minimum of 60%, or 15 correct. People with less than 15 correct will not get in, regardless.

Regardless of whether you agree or not, all answers will be based on information given in Handicapping Corner, and Steve's answers are considered official.

When you respond, please remember to state which CLUB you want - GARDEN or BALMORAL.
Just list the question number and the letter next to it … please, don't give me your life's story as I will have hundreds of these to look at.

All answers must be in before Saturday (i.e. 12:00 midnight on Friday night). Please email your response to THIS ADDRESS ONLY. Those emailed to my regular address will be ignored.

So put on your handicapping thinking caps - and feel free to go back and research the answers to these questions if you need! GOOD LUCK!

 1. When evaluating a move, of the following, which is the most important factor to consider?
a. The pace of the race prior to the move
b. The duration of the move
c. The speed of the actual move itself
d. The class of the race in which the move is being made.

e. Was the driver looking at his tickets when he made it.


 2. The term "track bias" refers to:
a. the speed of the track on a given night,
b. the condition of the track on a given night,
c. the relative success of front runners versus closers,
d. the easy which horses can make the lead on a track.

e. how many minorities are present at the track that night.


 3. Using charts is more productive than using a program because:
a. a chart can tell you which moves were actually effective;
b. the chart tells you how well a horse actually closed in a race;
c. a chart can show "hidden moves" that are not discernable from the program alone.
d. All of the above.

e. You can download them for free.


4. Betting favorites is usually a losing strategy because:
a. the favorite will lose most of the time anyway,
b. the crowd usually does not make the right horse the favorite,
c. the odds on most favorites are usually too low relative to the horse's chances,
d. favorites are "stiffed" more often than non favorites.

e. Your freinds will laugh at you for being a chalky & one will dump his beer
on you when, after their 20:1 shot gets nosed by your "stick" you remind
them, "Better a short price, than a long face


5. The best way to determine whether a horse is dropping down in class is:
a. to compare the purse value of the previous race with that of the current race
b. to compare the claiming price of the races,
c. to compare the conditions of the races,
d. to compare the shape of the horses in the races.

e. can it still walk.


6. Which of the following is the most important aspect of fractional analysis?
a. the speed of the final quarters,
b. the speed of the opening quarters,
c. the relative speeds of the various parts of the races,
d. the final times, compared to the opening quarters

e. Fractional analysis, phooey, the final time is what we "Smart bettors"
look to smoke out.


 7. The most important thing to realize about "streaks" in wagering is that:
a. they are most often caused by a flaw in handicapping,
b. they are greatly influenced by the condition of the track over a period of time,
c. they occur naturally in all areas, often regardless of how good your handicapping is,
d. they tend to occur more often in the winter rather than summer.

e. You will always be disqualified if you actually pick a "signer"


8. Which of the following is the most important factor in determining whether you will use "ALL" in a trifecta or exotic wager?
a. The horse you like should be a long-shot.
b. The favorite must not be in shape,
c. The race in question should be a highly competitive affair, on paper.
d. The favorite must have a very good chance of getting beat.

e. How much cash you can afford to lose on that race.


9. At a track like the Meadowlands, which statement is the most accurate regarding drivers?
a. There are relatively few who are bettable.
b. The driver should always be a primary consideration in determining the shape of a horse.
c. It's usually best to bet on the driver who is hot.
d. Most regular drivers are competant and can win if the horse is in shape.

e. Never bet on a driver whose butt is bigger than the seat.


10. Horse "A" races very well on the front end on a night when very few winners are doing it on the lead. We might well keep an eye on this horse for the following week because:
a. such horses often win in their next start,
b. the track will probably not be as tough on the front end next week,
c. his shape is probably better than it will look on the program,
d. other horses will be less likely to leave, giving him a better chance of securing the lead in easier fashion.

e. At least we will be able to see our horse for part of the race.


11. Of the following information given on the program, which is probably the least important for the purposes of handicapping:
a. The dates of previous races,
b. The post positions of previous races,
c. The driver in previous races,
d. The final time in previous races

e. The program sellers phone number, if its a guy.



12. In the area of speculating and taking risk,
a. It is okay to feel uncomfortable if the risk of a certain play is not aparent,
b. If you feel uncomfortable with the risk of a certain play, you should not make it.
c. The more risk you take, the higher return you should expect,
d. You should be looking to reduce risk whereever possible.

e. No balls, no glory


13. Which is the best indicator of a horse who is "in shape":
a. He consistently shows miles where he is "parked"
b. He shows consistent early speed
c. He consistently closes in the stretch,
d. He consistently does more than expected.

e. He shows puncture marks from the injections the vet gave him during the
prerace.


14. In deciding which race to evaluate in determining shape,
a. any recent race can be used,
b. the horse's best recent race should usually be used for evaluation,
c. the last race should be used unless there is a clear reason not to,
d. a good effort in the last should be ignored if other races where poor.

e. only races which show driver as WMitchell Jr. count


15. The best time to recognize a developing bias is:
a. When evaluating horses on a progra m,
b. The week following the performance.
c. At the end of the night's racing.
d. During the course of a card, if possible.

e. When you decide to tell off-color jokes, without looking to see who is
seating near you.


16. The first sign that a sharp closer may be losing his edge is:
a. A win by a smaller margin than is expected,
b. Being all-out to win a race off of a perfect trip,
c. Closing strongly into a weakening pace and finishing a strong second.
d. Attempting to leave and failing in the stretch.

e. The M1 video crew decides to show last week's final quarter 20 times &
Mike Farrell picks him as "Best Bet"


17. Daily Doubles and Pick-3 wagers are often a good wagering tool because:
a. the payoffs are higher than the win parlay,
b. simulcast revenues are not permitted in these pools,
c. they are less often used by insiders to bet their horses,
d. there is only one "take" by the track on these wagers.

e. You can always hope for consolation payoffs if you miss the beginning
part of the wager.


18. Betting trifectas and superfectas at small tracks is often a poor wager because:
a. the favorites are often over-bet,
b. long-shots are frequently overwhelmed,
c. pools are often too small to warrant the investment,
d. these races are usually fixed.

e. Even if you pick the right numbers, the seller will probably give you a
wrong ticket.


19. The best way to decide which races to bet is:
a. To look for races where the favorite is wrong,
b. to spot horses who had traffic problems,
c. to study the charts of each night's races
d. any of the above as long as you are consistent.

e. To only bet races that are actually being raced on that day


20. The whole object of handicapping is to:
a. identify the best horse in the race,
b. determine the shape of the horses in the race,
c. figure out which horse has the best chance of winning,
d. determine the relative chances of the horses in the race.

e. Pass the time in between races


21. Of the following, which is the most difficult thing a horse can do:
a. Being parked,
b. Going wide,
c. Being on the engine
d. Dueling for the lead.

e. be driven by Ken Iulo, in a 1 1/2 mile race.


22. Watching warmups is:
a. very important in determining whether a horse is worth a bet,
b. a total waste of time unless you know exactly what you are looking for in a particular horse,
c. worth doing, but only after you understand the shape of the horses' shapes.
d. None of the above.

e. Important, as it allows you to go to the fence and curse at the drivers


23. Most horses who appear like they are "due" are that way because:
a. they have had bad racing luck,
b. they have been racing over their head,
c. they have been out of shape,
d. they have drawn poor post positions.

e. They have a Fed Ex sticker on the side saying ship to: "Alpo Meat
Packaging ....."


24. You have placed a wager on the Daily Double, wheeling a horse in the first race with 4 horses in the second race. Your horse wins the first half and you are alive. In this case, you should not:
a. box the same 4 horses in the exactas in race 2,
b. sit tight and just watch the second race unfold,
c. cover your bet by making a win bet on one or more other horses in race 2,
d. bet trifectas in race 2.

e. Brag like an SOB how brilliant you were in picking the first
half....immediately before the race though disappear in case your horses don't
win the second half of the double.


25. Horse "A" has been lackluster in all recent starts. In his last race, however, after securing early position without much work, he is 3rd under coming into the lane. Throughout the stretch, it is clear that he is loaded with pace with nowhere to go. If he finds room, he might very well have won the race. Off this effort:
a. he must be considered "in-shape"
b. he is probably "in-shape" but it will depend on the field he draws into next week
c. he cannot be considered "sharp", but may be considered in "medium" or "average" condition
d. he is still "out of shape"

e. you hope that Mike Farrell, Dave Little and Hollywood Hayden were all on vacation that night.


 



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