1. When evaluating a move, of the following, which is the most
important factor to consider?
a. The pace of the race prior to the move
b. The duration of the move
c. The speed of the actual move itself
d. The class of the race in which the move is being made.
e. Was the driver looking at his tickets when he made it.
As mentioned previously, the 3 questions that
you want to ask yourself when evaluating a move are, in order: 1) What did
the horse do? 2) For how long did he do it? 3) How fast was he going when
he did it? Therefore, among the choices given, (b), duration of the move
is the more important.
2. The term "track bias" refers to:
a. the speed of the track on a given night,
b. the condition of the track on a given night,
c. the relative success of front runners versus
closers,
d. the easy which horses can make the lead on a track.
e. how many minorities are present at the track that night.
On some days, the track seems to favor horses
on or near the lead, while on other nights, a track may seem to favor horses
coming from off the pace. Therefore, the track can be "biased"
toward a particular racing style. This is the definition of a track bias.
(c).
3. Using charts is more productive than using a program because:
a. a chart can tell you which moves were actually effective;
b. the chart tells you how well a horse actually closed in a race;
c. a chart can show "hidden moves" that are not discernable from
the program alone.
d. All of the above.
e. You can download them for free.
(d) Both (a), (b) and (c) are all reasons why
the charts are more revealing, and a better source of shape information
than programs.
4. Betting favorites is usually a losing strategy because:
a. the favorite will lose most of the time anyway,
b. the crowd usually does not make the right horse the favorite,
c. the odds on most favorites are usually too low
relative to the horse's chances,
d. favorites are "stiffed" more often than non favorites.
e. Your freinds will laugh at you for being a chalky & one will dump
his beer
on you when, after their 20:1 shot gets nosed by your "stick"
you remind
them, "Better a short price, than a long face
The crowd usually identifies the proper favorite.
Although it is true that the favorites lose most of the time (a), the reason
that they represent a poor investment overall is because they are more often
bet down to odds that cannot be justified by their chances, thus, (c) is
the correct response. 5. The best way to determine
whether a horse is dropping down in class is:
a. to compare the purse value of the previous race with that of the current
race
b. to compare the claiming price of the races,
c. to compare the conditions of the races,
d. to compare the shape of the horses in the races.
e. can it still walk.
The title of the race often as very little to
do with the toughness of the field. Thus, it is non uncommon to find a horse
dropping from, say, $10,000 claimers into $8,000 claimers, but actually
moving into a tougher field. Same with conditions. The most important factor
is the overall sharpness of the fields. This is why it is important to save
copies of programs on your computer - so that you can refer to prior races
and see whether a horse is really moving up, down or sideways .
6. Which of the following is the most important aspect of fractional
analysis?
a. the speed of the final quarters,
b. the speed of the opening quarters,
c. the relative speeds of the various parts of
the races,
d. the final times, compared to the opening quarters
e. Fractional analysis, phooey, the final time is what we "Smart
bettors"
look to smoke out.
The key element of fractional analysis is to
measure the effectiveness with which a horse uses energy, as it relates
to the relative speeds of the various portions of a race, (c). All the other
choices here are all nonsense. 7. The most
important thing to realize about "streaks" in wagering is that:
a. they are most often caused by a flaw in handicapping,
b. they are greatly influenced by the condition of the track over a period
of time,
c. they occur naturally in all areas, often regardless
of how good your handicapping is,
d. they tend to occur more often in the winter rather than summer.
e. You will always be disqualified if you actually pick a "signer"
Regardless of your skill as a handicapper or
bettor, you will always experience streaks, and streaks happen in all areas
of life (c). The more proficient you become, the more you will be able to
minimize the negative effects of bad streaks and enhance the positive effects
of hot streaks. 8. Which of the following is the
most important factor in determining whether you will use "ALL"
in a trifecta or exotic wager?
a. The horse you like should be a long-shot.
b. The favorite must not be in shape,
c. The race in question should be a highly competitive affair, on paper.
d. The favorite must have a very good chance of
getting beat.
e. How much cash you can afford to lose on that race.
The 2 primary criteria for using ALL in wagers
is that: 1) you must have a key horse or horses who you feel have a reasonably
good chance of winning and are being substantially overlooked in the betting,
and 2) there is a heavy favorite who you feel stands a very good chance
of getting beat. Thus, (d) is the appropriate answer. Choices (a), (b) and
(c) are certainly desireable, but by no means neccessary. 9.
At a track like the Meadowlands, which statement is the most accurate regarding
drivers?
a. There are relatively few who are bettable.
b. The driver should always be a primary consideration in determining the
shape of a horse.
c. It's usually best to bet on the driver who is hot.
d. Most regular drivers are competant and can win
if the horse is in shape.
e. Never bet on a driver whose butt is bigger than the seat.
Statistically, with the exception of John Campbell,
most of the top regular drivers at the Big M have win percentages that are
so close to one another that it is difficult to choose between them - choice
(d)
10. Horse "A" races very well on the front end on a night when
very few winners are doing it on the lead. We might well keep an eye on
this horse for the following week because:
a. such horses often win in their next start,
b. the track will probably not be as tough on the front end next week,
c. his shape is probably better than it will look
on the program,
d. other horses will be less likely to leave, giving him a better chance
of securing the lead in easier fashion.
e. At least we will be able to see our horse for part of the race.
One of the principal reasons why you want to
recognize a bias is that it without it, certain performance can appear better
(on paper) than they really were, and others will seem worse that they actually
were. Thus, choice (c). 11. Of the following information
given on the program, which is probably the least important for the purposes
of handicapping:
a. The dates of previous races,
b. The post positions of previous races,
c. The driver in previous races,
d. The final time in previous races
e. The program sellers phone number, if its a guy.
Been through this a jillion times.
12. In the area of speculating and taking risk,
a. It is okay to feel uncomfortable if the risk
of a certain play is not aparent,
b. If you feel uncomfortable with the risk of a certain play, you should
not make it.
c. The more risk you take, the higher return you should expect,
d. You should be looking to reduce risk whereever possible.
e. No balls, no glory
There will always been unknowns and uncertainties.
It is natural to be uncomfortable with these, so long as you seek value
and do not let this keep you from acting. If you wait to be comfortable,
or always look to cut risk, this is the wrong game for you. The day I stop
getting a little nervous before I make a bet is the day I stop betting.
13. Which is the best indicator of a horse who is "in shape":
a. He consistently shows miles where he is "parked"
b. He shows consistent early speed
c. He consistently closes in the stretch,
d. He consistently does more than expected.
e. He shows puncture marks from the injections the vet gave him during
the
prerace.
(d) is the essence of the in-shape animal.
14. In deciding which race to evaluate in determining shape,
a. any recent race can be used,
b. the horse's best recent race should usually be used for evaluation,
c. the last race should be used unless there is
a clear reason not to,
d. a good effort in the last should be ignored if other races where poor.
e. only races which show driver as WMitchell Jr. count
A horse's most recent race is the best indicator
of his shape, unless there is some reason why that race was not a true barometer,
thus (c) is the only answer here which makes any sense at all.
15. The best time to recognize a developing bias is:
a. When evaluating horses on a progra m,
b. The week following the performance.
c. At the end of the night's racing.
d. During the course of a card, if possible.
e. When you decide to tell off-color jokes, without looking to see who
is
seating near you.
While it is certainly fine to recognize this
condition after races have been run, seeing it develop as a night moves
on is even more powerful, as it allows you to use this information to adjust
your estimate of the relative chances of various horses.
16. The first sign that a sharp closer may be losing his edge is:
a. A win by a smaller margin than is expected,
b. Being all-out to win a race off of a perfect trip,
c. Closing strongly into a weakening pace and finishing
a strong second.
d. Attempting to leave and failing in the stretch.
e. The M1 video crew decides to show last week's final quarter 20 times
&
Mike Farrell picks him as "Best Bet"
This is the classic type of race that tells
you that a previously razor-sharp closer may now moving back to a more sustainable
level of shape. Remember, when closers are really sharp, they can close
strongly even when the pace strengthens in the final stages. Unless there
is traffic problems or some other reason, when a softening pace is thrown
at him, he must win. Failure to do so, even by the smallest of margins,
is usually prima facie evidence of shape slippage.
17. Daily Doubles and Pick-3 wagers are often a good wagering tool because:
a. the payoffs are higher than the win parlay,
b. simulcast revenues are not permitted in these pools,
c. they are less often used by insiders to bet their horses,
d. there is only one "take" by the track
on these wagers.
e. You can always hope for consolation payoffs if you miss the beginning
part of the wager.
Since one of your goals is to approach the game
like a business, knocking down the overhead whereever possible can be very
profitable. For the same reason that you have to watch your as with the
exotics because of the track's "take", MULTIPLE RACE exotics such
as doubles and pikcs can provide an excellent play from a business perspective,
as opposed to MULTIPLE HORSE exotics (exactas and trifectas) - even though
the take may be a little higher on a pick-3 than a win wager, you do get
3 races with only one takeout.
18. Betting trifectas and superfectas at small tracks is often a poor
wager because:
a. the favorites are often over-bet,
b. long-shots are frequently overwhelmed,
c. pools are often too small to warrant the investment,
d. these races are usually fixed.
e. Even if you pick the right numbers, the seller will probably give
you a
wrong ticket.
If you bet trifectas the way I do - with the
idea of beating favorites and using longer-priced horses who I feel are
alive - they can only give you what's left in the pool - and often times,
there just isn't enough in the pool at smaller tracks to give you the proper
reward for your wonderful handicapping when you do get the right long-shots
in there. Better to do most of your trifecta betting into a track that has
a reasonable sized pool.
19. The best way to decide which races to bet is:
a. To look for races where the favorite is wrong,
b. to spot horses who had traffic problems,
c. to study the charts of each night's races
d. any of the above as long as you are consistent.
e. To only bet races that are actually being raced on that day
In my article on the handicapping cycle, I went
over this. The important thing is to use some method to limit the number
of races that you bet - using any method that you wish. I prefer to use
(c), but all of these are good ways, as long as you are consistent and know
what you are doing. Of course, just moving through the program, page to
page, is the worst method.
20. The whole object of handicapping is to:
a. identify the best horse in the race,
b. determine the shape of the horses in the race,
c. figure out which horse has the best chance of winning,
d. determine the relative chances of the horses
in the race.
e. Pass the time in between races
this is the definition of handicapping. There
is no way to know where the value lies unless you understand the relative
chances of the horses.
21. Of the following, which is the most difficult thing a horse can do:
a. Being parked,
b. Going wide,
c. Being on the engine
d. Dueling for the lead.
e. be driven by Ken Iulo, in a 1 1/2 mile race.
Of course (e) IS the best answer, but aside
from that, Dueling For The Lead is the most stressful thing a horse can
do.
22. Watching warmups is:
a. very important in determining whether a horse is worth a bet,
b. a total waste of time unless you know exactly
what you are looking for in a particular horse,
c. worth doing, but only after you understand the shape of the horses' shapes.
d. None of the above.
e. Important, as it allows you to go to the fence and curse at the drivers
While it is true that horses can look good or
bad in warmups, and this can be somewhat of an indicator of something, some
of the best horses look like shit warming up, and some that look terrific
in warmus end up racing like crap. It takes a trained eye, and in particular,
a keen knowledge of what a horse normally looks like. Also, you need to
know what a trainer has in mind when they take the horse out for warmups
earlier in the evening. By and large, unless you know what's happening on
the training front, and know what too look for specifically, it is a waste
of time, (b).
23. Most horses who appear like they are "due" are that way
because:
a. they have had bad racing luck,
b. they have been racing over their head,
c. they have been out of shape,
d. they have drawn poor post positions.
e. They have a Fed Ex sticker on the side saying ship to: "Alpo
Meat
Packaging ....."
While it is true that there are many possible
excuses for a horse to appear "due" in a traditional sense, most
of these horses are that way because they have, quite simply, been racing
poorly, choice (c).
24. You have placed a wager on the Daily Double, wheeling a horse in
the first race with 4 horses in the second race. Your horse wins the first
half and you are alive. In this case, you should not:
a. box the same 4 horses in the exactas in race 2,
b. sit tight and just watch the second race unfold,
c. cover your bet by making a win bet on one or
more other horses in race 2,
d. bet trifectas in race 2.
e. Brag like an SOB how brilliant you were in picking the first
half....immediately before the race though disappear in case your horses
don't
win the second half of the double.
You can bet however you like, or don't bet at
all, but the one thing you should not do is start hedging around by betting
other horses. If you thought these horses were in shape and worth a bet,
you would have included them in the doubles with your horse in the first
part. You stick with your convictions, and not (c).
25. Horse "A" has been lackluster in all recent starts. In
his last race, however, after securing early position without much work,
he is 3rd under coming into the lane. Throughout the stretch, it is clear
that he is loaded with pace with nowhere to go. If he finds room, he might
very well have won the race. Off this effort:
a. he must be considered "in-shape"
b. he is probably "in-shape" but it will depend on the field he
draws into next week
c. he cannot be considered "sharp", but
may be considered in "medium" or "average" condition
d. he is still "out of shape"
e. you hope that Mike Farrell, Dave Little and Hollywood Hayden were
all on vacation that night.
Well, the one thing we don't do is change our
rating on him from poor to sharp, (a) based on having horse left after a
restful trip. It may be a sign of some improvement, thus (d) is probably
not appropriate. Best choice here is (c) - he cannot be sharp, but may be
moving from poor state, up the shape curve into an average or medium type
condition.
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