This begins a four-part series on the topic of shape. This first installment will define it, the next two will talk about the two different parts of it, and the final will put it all together, along with some angles as we get ready to add in the all-important topic of bias, and how that affects things.

During this sequence, if there is enough interest, we are going to hold an Online Conference to handle questions, discuss things, etc. In order to participate, you will need the ICHAT pager downloaded for the chat-conference. If you do not have it, PRESS HERE TO DOWNLOAD ICHAT PAGER for free.

The words you hear most often from me are "in-shape" … and the question on most peoples’ minds is …. What do you mean by in shape? So today’s the day that I introduce this and start talking about it in earnest. So first, I guess I need a definition. This is difficult since shape is a complex thing. That’s the bad thing. The good thing is that shape in known or knowable. So here’s my definition.

Shape is the current fitness level of the horse. Shape is a horse’s ability to do what is needed in order to positively improve it’s chances of winning. Shape is how well the animal is currently performing, relative to it’s potential. Shape is how effectively a horse can use energy during various parts of a race and still perform adequately in the stretch. Shape is how well a horse is performing compared to what is expected.

Shape is not how fast a horse can run. Shape is not how fast a horse has raced in the past. Shape is not what type of horses he has run against in the past. Shape is not how fast a horse can close. Shape is not how fast a horse can leave. Shape is not whether a horse wins (although most winners are in shape). Shape is not what post position he has, or who is driving.

There is nothing so simple, yet so complex as shape. I could say it in one sentence or one paragraph like above, or, I could go on and on and on and on and on. In one sentence: Good shape is defined as the horse’s ability to do what is needed to be in position to win, and the ability to do more than you would expect than if he were in average shape.

Let’s take the example of a baseball player, who is a .275 hitter. He doesn’t do this consistently; rather, he goes through streaks, slumps and periods of normalized performance. Think about it (I hope most of you are at least familiar with the great American pastime) - what is happening when this batter is doing his normal thing: when the pitcher makes a mistake, he jumps on it. Certain types of pitches he has problems with, certain pitchers he has problems with …. Certain pitchers and types of pitches he does well with. If the pitcher makes a very good pitch, the batter is usually out, but often he will still get the ball in play, etc. Even though he may possess only moderate power, when he looking for a pitch and gets it in his zone, he can pop it out of the park. IN SHORT - HE IS DOING WHAT’S EXPECTED, GIVEN THE SITUATION, HIS ABILITY LEVEL AND THAT OF HIS COMPETITION.

Now think about what happens when he’s in a slump. Suddenly, even though he may be a fast ball hitter, he seems to have trouble keeping up and getting good wood on the ball even when the count is 3-1 and everyone in the ballpark knows a fast ball is coming. When the pitcher makes a great pitch, he is still out, but this time, may strike out, or pop out weakly. He may be unable to make a productive out and move runners. IN SHORT - HE IS DOING SOMEWHAT LESS THAN WHAT’S EXPECTED, GIVEN THE SITUATION, HIS ABILITY LEVEL AND THAT OF HIS COMPETITION.

Now what happens when he’s hot. When he’s looking for a fast ball and gets it - he jumps on it. Even when the pitcher fools him with a curve ball - he can often get it in play and get a hit. Balls that were deep fly outs now often carry over the fence. Even when the pitcher makes a great pitch, instead of striking out of hitting a weak pop or grounder, he fouls it off, or may even get a hit. When there’s a runner on third and less that 2 out, and a fly ball is needed, he gets the ball up in the air, even if it’s a sinking split-fingered fast ball. IN SHORT - HE IS DOING SOMEWHAT MORE THAN WHAT’S EXPECTED, GIVEN THE SITUATION, HIS ABILITY LEVEL AND THAT OF HIS COMPETITION.

And the same type of analogies can be made for a home-run hitter, although the exact examples above, the story line so to speak, is a bit different. Same for a pitcher. I use baseball because the season is long enough to see obvious changes in the "shape" of the players, and you see shape changing, gradually improving, reaching a sustainable level - possibly highlighted by brief periods of spectacular performance, and you see it tailing off. You generally don’t see a .270 hitter go "2 - 30" then suddenly get a hit in 10 straight plate appearances over 2 games, then go "2-30" again. It’s hard to see this is football, say. But racing, for most horses, is a 9-month sport, so there’s plenty of time to see it developing.

The key operative words are: WHAT’S EXPECTED. This concept throws many handicappers off balance. Even those who hold themselves out as experts. The guys on TV who see a horse whose boxed and automatically scream out "Watch for him next week!" Often, they clearly talk before they think, and never bother to consider what should have been expected. More on this in part 3. You have to know what to expect, in order to make meaningful shape determinations. When a horse is doing what’s expected, I have a complex technical term for this: average. When a horse is doing somewhat more than expected, I say he is in "good shape". When a horse is doing substantially more than what is expected, he is in "excellent shape." Those of you who have been following my race analysis steadily recognize how few times I put a " * " next to a horse indicating superior shape. It is more difficult to learn what is "out-of-shape". This is when a horse is doing anything less than expected, even if it is just slightly less. It doesn’t have to be horrible, just any little bit less. People have difficulty with this. So RED BOW TIE could be out of shape racing in 1:52 while DIPSHIT HANOVER can be in shape racing in 2:05, depending on what is expected.

Shape generally follows a curve, moving from below average, being at average, rising to above average, staying there for some period, and retreating back to near average, fluctuating around the average, possibly moving below average for some time period, etc. Some horses can get above average, and stay there for longer periods of time than others. Some horses perform exceptionally above average for some period of time. Some horses form cycles contain "spikes" where they are capable of truly remarkable performances (compared to what’s expected) for very short periods of time, sometimes just one race.

For this purpose, it is very helpful to know the horses. It’s tough with younger ones, but older horse tend to repeat the same general patterns of shape from year to year. Their overall ability level might increase or decrease, but the shapes of their curves are remarkably similar from year to year. It’s like clockwork. An excellent example of this was MASTER LAWRENCE from last week - but we’ll talk about anticipating shape cycles in a later edition.

Your next question is: "Steve, what should I expect?" My answer is: it depends. This will be the third part of this series. It depends on the ability of the horse, the fractions, the shape/ability dynamics of the field, the horse’s predominant or most effective racing style, the post, the driver and the driving tactics. This is where all these other things come into play. To me, they all become melded into what I expect. And so they are very important parts of the equation, even though I have under emphasized them to date. They are more like the denominator of a fraction, whereas the numerator is: What did the horse do.? So for those of you who think only with the left parts of your brain, you can think of shape as the following equation:

For horses in normal shape, these 2 are about equal, and so you can think of it as "1". For those in good or better shape, it is higher. For those who are out of shape, it is under "1". I don’t actually do this, but it’s an interesting way to think of it.

My next edition will be strictly about the first half of this equation - what did the horse do? And prior to the home stretch, there are really only 3 things: they can duel for the lead, they can race without cover, or they can race off the rail (wide). This will be part 2 of this series. These various factors come together in different ways for front-runners, grinders and closers. See you next week. Until then, review the upcoming discussion about the quiz we did, and make sure you understand it. I will also be giving you a couple of tidbits of info about certain of those horses which can be gotten right out of the charts, and see if you would change any of your answers!