The new year is upon us
time for some good, old-fashioned New Years resolutions
so with that,
I have come up with The Ten Commitments of Good Horse Play for you to consider
as we move toward the new year. Ill explain each of them briefly,
but promise that I will make full installments of Handicapping Corner about
each one. If Ive already covered it, then well repeat the lessons.
My overriding goal of this web site
is to help generate interest and participation in a truly great sport. And
this sport needs all the help it can get. My goal is not to merely "give
out winners." Its not unlike any other sport, like golf. The
new equipment has made more people become competent at a very difficult
game, and it has enhanced enjoyment and participation. Look - you guys are
my competition when I go to the track - if an extra edge against you is
what I wanted, I wouldnt do this. I want every one of you to become
better at this sport, so you can enjoy it more. And trust me - winning is
much more enjoyable than losing.
So here they are, STEVES TEN
COMMITTMENTS OF GOOD HARNESS PLAYING:
1. THOU SHALT TREAT THIS HOBBY LIKE
A BUSINESS - I know for most of us, this is a hobby. But in order to keep
the cost of this hobby down, and possibly even make it lucrative, you have
to stand back and operate it objectively, soundly and consistently, like
you would if you were managing the family business. Theres planning,
budgeting, sales (revenues), expenses, etc.
even human resources (like
handling your wife when you need to get to the track)
.almost everything
in a real business is there - its up to you.
I've heard several
people comment that they are keeping records of winnings and losses. Heck,
it's not that complicated - you can just count your money in the wallet
on the way in, count it in the car on the way out, and subtract! Whatever
you do, you still need good, objective, accurate feedback - how are you
going to know if you are doing better if you don't do this? You wanna test
whether certain angles work? Easy. On the program, each horse you key in
on for betting, jot down the reason or reasons that you keyed this horse.
Then see what is working for you and what is not.
2. THOU SHALT KEEP DETAILED RECORDS - you all have computers
no excuses.
Get a computer filing system (I use Documagix) to create a computer-based
filing system. Download all charts from any tracks that you usually wager
or visit and save them. Download all programs and save them, even if you
arent going that night. Keep records of what you bet, what you spent,
how much you won and lost, etc. Trust me
it takes like an extra 15
minutes a week to do this, and it will pay off in spades.
It's getting easier
and easier - with macros and everything - no excuse here. Even I have done
better in this area, and I spend even LESS time on it than a year ago. Thank
you internet.
3. THOU SHALT BECOME A STUDENT OF THE GAME - just the fact that you tune
in here regularly tells me something about youre willingness to learn.
(Though the number of hits to the analysis part of this site is always a
lot more than the Handicapping Corner - which tells me that a lot of people
just want the picks, and arent interested in learning!) You must always
be looking for something new to learn. If you go to the track on any night,
and you didnt learn something, then it was not a productive trip.
If you dont understand something I say - ask. If you disagree - say
it. Im not foolish enough to think I have all the answers. Ive
been doing this profitably since I am under 10 years old, and every day,
I feel like theres more and more that I dont know, that I can
learn.
I'm gonna give an
award out this year, with dinner for 2 at the Meadowlands, and a bottle
of Pepto Bismol! This goes to the most improved handicapper, based on my
observations and discussions. My heart has been really warmed to hear about
some of the good success so many of you have had. It distresses me to hear
some people who have some good ideas, but just aren't willing to open their
minds and add to their repetoire.
4. THOU SHALT BE PROPERLY CAPITALIZED - this means that you have enough
money to do this hobby and do it right, if you want to get the most out
of it. It means you need enough capital for the long term, and you have
enough capital with you on every given night so that no matter what, you
always have enough to do what you think is right, so that you never have
to stare at an open wallet, and so you dont have to visit the ATM
machine to make it through the evening. Mostly, you have enough so you never
go home broke - so you can make it home safely and have money with you in
case of an emergency.
A lot of the things
I mention in betting require you to be properly capitalized. I know one
reader who virtually sat out the entire season last year, putting aside
money so he could be properly capitalized for this year. Thats more discipline
than I have - way to go - you know who you are. But if you pay attention
to #5 below, you can increase your effective capitalization dramatically,
without actually going to the track with more money. I think the pick-3
really helps in this regard.
5. THOU SHALT NOT BET EVERY RACE - I know youve heard this one before,
but even I cant win that way, and Im a damned good handicapper
and a damned good bettor. Its impossible to sit there staring at a
program and a tele-tote board and not be tempted to bet. Do something else.
I often bring a good book and read between races that dont interest
me - stopping only to be a student and watch the race. Some friends of mine
bring a chess board. Bring some music to listen to. Take a walk. Go sit
on the potty. Do something with yourself if you lack the control. Trust
me - the urge will go away once you get used to it. (Incidentally, the corollary
to this is "Thou Shalt Not Bet Other Tracks Other Than The One You
Are Interested In" - rip the pages out of the program and chuck them
- okay?)
More races than
ever, more tracks, okay - it's getting tougher and tougher to do. But this
is the one area that people have reported to me which has increased their
results. Pick a method of determining key races, and stick with it. Limiting
the number of races you bet also allows you to bet more money on the races
you do bet, and allows you to bet aggressively at the end of the night,
if the situation warrants. Use the pick-3 wagers, and if you are alive in
the final leg, then sit tight - that's another way to leverage while limiting.
I've been doing a lot of that recently, with good success.
6. THOU SHALT NOT SULK - I cant stand sore losers. If you have a bad
night at the track, like we all do, leave it at the track. Dont take
it home with you. If you do, your family will soon come to dread and resent
your visits to the track. You really need their support at this - you dont
need them being your enemies. When you come home, your family doesnt
even know whether you won or lost, unless they ask or you tell them.
Several of you have
joined me at the track this past year. You wanna know what makes me happier
than winning? Seeing the guy next to me win. Really. I have had more fun
rooting for others than myself. Even on those occassions where I wasn't
hitting, those who have joined me can attest that I always remained upbeat
and supported them in their efforts.
7. THOU SHALT BE A HANDICAPPER NOT A PICKER - handicapping means assessing
the shape and chances of each horse in the race, not picking the winner.
If you want to know which horse is the overall best horse in the race, look
at the tote board - its usually the favorite. If you want to know
which horse is most likely to win - usually the same thing. Ultimately,
you cannot win unless you are making bets that are worth the odds, and you
cannot do this unless you know what each horses chances are. Stop
trying to pick the winners, and start handicapping - its amazing how
much better your picks become when you arent even trying to pick.
Posting to GOLD
CLUB sometimes gets me in trouble here ... because many times, the value
has emerged elsewhere, and I have departed from my original ideas. When
was the last time you went to the teller to cash a ticket, but were declined
because the teller said, "Joe, we would love to cash this winning exacta
ticket for you, but we cannot, since this was not the horse you picked last
night" - being a handicapper means being selective, even if it means
changing your inital betting ideas entirely.
8. THOU SHALT TAKE RESPONSIBILITY AND STOP BLAMING - this means you stop
blaming drivers, trainers, whoever - complaining about how dirty the sport
is, etc. This sport aint any dirtier than any other. You think the
advertising business is any cleaner? Got any idea whos sleeping with
who for that big corporate account? Do you think that the copier contract
always goes to the vendor with the best product and the best price? When
were you born - yesterday? You want to see dirty - look at the NASDAQ -
there are guys who work my business who, if they were harness drivers, would
get to ¾ pole and have Cambells pants, LaChances shirt
and Parkers wallet in their pocket and those guys wouldnt even
know they were gone! Its a business - all that stuff is part of it
- if you cant take it, dont bet. The smart player learns from
everything and uses it as additional information for later.
This still annoys
me, but amuses me. How the same people show up at the track night after
night, and every race they don't hit is "fixed". You can't function
effectively unless you consider this as a fact of life, learn to anticipate
it, account for it and capitalize on it.
9. THOU SHALT NOT HEDGE OR SECOND GUESS - you are decisive. You decide to
bet or not to bet. You decide who. No more "I was gonna bet the 3-9..look
I had him circled." It doesnt matter. You didnt and someone
else did. Shut it off. You made the best decision you could at the time,
you made a decision and put you money where your mouth was. Constantly replaying
what you were going to do is mentally unhealthy and is a form of subconscious
hedging - youre looking to make yourself feel smarter by pointing
out that you had it, even though you didnt. Hedging is an act of indecision,
be it mental hedging or physical hedging. Each are unhealthy. You dont
bet 2 horses to win. And if you are alive in the doubles, you sit tight
and dont hedge by covering your bet with other horses. You go with
your decision and either live or die by the sword.
Again, under the
right circumstances, the pick-3 is the perfect vehicle for betting aggressively,
but still covering your ass - I've become a big fan of it over the past
year because of this. See .... even Steve learns and adjusts!
10. THOU SHALT HAVE A BIAS TOWARD HIGHER PRICES - Ive already talked
about the mathematics of favoritism, and Ill talk more about this.
Until then, you have to accept a simple truth: this is a game were perfection
is not a realistic goal. The only people I know who are consistent winners
lose much more often then they win. Harry goes to the windows constantly
to collect - but hes always tapped out! Though betting favorites can
be an important part of your overall strategy, it is not a profitable part
- the place where youre profits will come is with the mid- to longer-priced
payoffs. You have to be alive when they come. You have to learn to recognize
the dead from those who are merely sleeping.
Anybody who has
followed this sight for the past year or so just HAS TO believe in this
by now. With the new increases in purses scheduled for February at the Meadowlands,
the racing should become even more competitive than ever - this means more
in-shape horses and better prices. Favorites at the Meadowlands are truly
becoming a worse and worse betting proposition than ever, as far as I am
concerned. |