Handicapping Corner

with Steve M.

Last year, at New Years, I posted this as the special edition of Handicapping Corner. Watching and hearing from so many people over the past year has given me much food for thought. So what I have done is decided to revisit this most important topic. This should be especially useful to the many people who have come on board with us since then.... in addition, in red, I have added to this with other feelings and insights that I have gathered in speaking with and meeting so many of you over the past year.

As always, I am constantly willing to act as your coach -- anybody out here who wants to set a goal with respect to any of these, be my guest. Tell me what your goal is, and I will bust your nuts to hold you accountable!

 

THE TEN COMMITTMENTS

 The new year is upon us… time for some good, old-fashioned New Years resolutions…so with that, I have come up with The Ten Commitments of Good Horse Play for you to consider as we move toward the new year. I’ll explain each of them briefly, but promise that I will make full installments of Handicapping Corner about each one. If I’ve already covered it, then we’ll repeat the lessons.

My overriding goal of this web site is to help generate interest and participation in a truly great sport. And this sport needs all the help it can get. My goal is not to merely "give out winners." It’s not unlike any other sport, like golf. The new equipment has made more people become competent at a very difficult game, and it has enhanced enjoyment and participation. Look - you guys are my competition when I go to the track - if an extra edge against you is what I wanted, I wouldn’t do this. I want every one of you to become better at this sport, so you can enjoy it more. And trust me - winning is much more enjoyable than losing.

So here they are, STEVE’S TEN COMMITTMENTS OF GOOD HARNESS PLAYING:

1. THOU SHALT TREAT THIS HOBBY LIKE A BUSINESS - I know for most of us, this is a hobby. But in order to keep the cost of this hobby down, and possibly even make it lucrative, you have to stand back and operate it objectively, soundly and consistently, like you would if you were managing the family business. There’s planning, budgeting, sales (revenues), expenses, etc.…even human resources (like handling your wife when you need to get to the track) … .almost everything in a real business is there - it’s up to you.

I've heard several people comment that they are keeping records of winnings and losses. Heck, it's not that complicated - you can just count your money in the wallet on the way in, count it in the car on the way out, and subtract! Whatever you do, you still need good, objective, accurate feedback - how are you going to know if you are doing better if you don't do this? You wanna test whether certain angles work? Easy. On the program, each horse you key in on for betting, jot down the reason or reasons that you keyed this horse. Then see what is working for you and what is not.


2. THOU SHALT KEEP DETAILED RECORDS - you all have computers…no excuses. Get a computer filing system (I use Documagix) to create a computer-based filing system. Download all charts from any tracks that you usually wager or visit and save them. Download all programs and save them, even if you aren’t going that night. Keep records of what you bet, what you spent, how much you won and lost, etc. Trust me… it takes like an extra 15 minutes a week to do this, and it will pay off in spades.

It's getting easier and easier - with macros and everything - no excuse here. Even I have done better in this area, and I spend even LESS time on it than a year ago. Thank you internet.


3. THOU SHALT BECOME A STUDENT OF THE GAME - just the fact that you tune in here regularly tells me something about you’re willingness to learn. (Though the number of hits to the analysis part of this site is always a lot more than the Handicapping Corner - which tells me that a lot of people just want the picks, and aren’t interested in learning!) You must always be looking for something new to learn. If you go to the track on any night, and you didn’t learn something, then it was not a productive trip. If you don’t understand something I say - ask. If you disagree - say it. I’m not foolish enough to think I have all the answers. I’ve been doing this profitably since I am under 10 years old, and every day, I feel like there’s more and more that I don’t know, that I can learn.

I'm gonna give an award out this year, with dinner for 2 at the Meadowlands, and a bottle of Pepto Bismol! This goes to the most improved handicapper, based on my observations and discussions. My heart has been really warmed to hear about some of the good success so many of you have had. It distresses me to hear some people who have some good ideas, but just aren't willing to open their minds and add to their repetoire.


4. THOU SHALT BE PROPERLY CAPITALIZED - this means that you have enough money to do this hobby and do it right, if you want to get the most out of it. It means you need enough capital for the long term, and you have enough capital with you on every given night so that no matter what, you always have enough to do what you think is right, so that you never have to stare at an open wallet, and so you don’t have to visit the ATM machine to make it through the evening. Mostly, you have enough so you never go home broke - so you can make it home safely and have money with you in case of an emergency.

A lot of the things I mention in betting require you to be properly capitalized. I know one reader who virtually sat out the entire season last year, putting aside money so he could be properly capitalized for this year. Thats more discipline than I have - way to go - you know who you are. But if you pay attention to #5 below, you can increase your effective capitalization dramatically, without actually going to the track with more money. I think the pick-3 really helps in this regard.


5. THOU SHALT NOT BET EVERY RACE - I know you’ve heard this one before, but even I can’t win that way, and I’m a damned good handicapper and a damned good bettor. It’s impossible to sit there staring at a program and a tele-tote board and not be tempted to bet. Do something else. I often bring a good book and read between races that don’t interest me - stopping only to be a student and watch the race. Some friends of mine bring a chess board. Bring some music to listen to. Take a walk. Go sit on the potty. Do something with yourself if you lack the control. Trust me - the urge will go away once you get used to it. (Incidentally, the corollary to this is "Thou Shalt Not Bet Other Tracks Other Than The One You Are Interested In" - rip the pages out of the program and chuck them - okay?)

More races than ever, more tracks, okay - it's getting tougher and tougher to do. But this is the one area that people have reported to me which has increased their results. Pick a method of determining key races, and stick with it. Limiting the number of races you bet also allows you to bet more money on the races you do bet, and allows you to bet aggressively at the end of the night, if the situation warrants. Use the pick-3 wagers, and if you are alive in the final leg, then sit tight - that's another way to leverage while limiting. I've been doing a lot of that recently, with good success.


6. THOU SHALT NOT SULK - I can’t stand sore losers. If you have a bad night at the track, like we all do, leave it at the track. Don’t take it home with you. If you do, your family will soon come to dread and resent your visits to the track. You really need their support at this - you don’t need them being your enemies. When you come home, your family doesn’t even know whether you won or lost, unless they ask or you tell them.

Several of you have joined me at the track this past year. You wanna know what makes me happier than winning? Seeing the guy next to me win. Really. I have had more fun rooting for others than myself. Even on those occassions where I wasn't hitting, those who have joined me can attest that I always remained upbeat and supported them in their efforts.


7. THOU SHALT BE A HANDICAPPER NOT A PICKER - handicapping means assessing the shape and chances of each horse in the race, not picking the winner. If you want to know which horse is the overall best horse in the race, look at the tote board - it’s usually the favorite. If you want to know which horse is most likely to win - usually the same thing. Ultimately, you cannot win unless you are making bets that are worth the odds, and you cannot do this unless you know what each horse’s chances are. Stop trying to pick the winners, and start handicapping - it’s amazing how much better your picks become when you aren’t even trying to pick.

Posting to GOLD CLUB sometimes gets me in trouble here ... because many times, the value has emerged elsewhere, and I have departed from my original ideas. When was the last time you went to the teller to cash a ticket, but were declined because the teller said, "Joe, we would love to cash this winning exacta ticket for you, but we cannot, since this was not the horse you picked last night" - being a handicapper means being selective, even if it means changing your inital betting ideas entirely.


8. THOU SHALT TAKE RESPONSIBILITY AND STOP BLAMING - this means you stop blaming drivers, trainers, whoever - complaining about how dirty the sport is, etc. This sport ain’t any dirtier than any other. You think the advertising business is any cleaner? Got any idea who’s sleeping with who for that big corporate account? Do you think that the copier contract always goes to the vendor with the best product and the best price? When were you born - yesterday? You want to see dirty - look at the NASDAQ - there are guys who work my business who, if they were harness drivers, would get to ¾ pole and have Cambell’s pants, LaChance’s shirt and Parker’s wallet in their pocket and those guys wouldn’t even know they were gone! It’s a business - all that stuff is part of it - if you can’t take it, don’t bet. The smart player learns from everything and uses it as additional information for later.

This still annoys me, but amuses me. How the same people show up at the track night after night, and every race they don't hit is "fixed". You can't function effectively unless you consider this as a fact of life, learn to anticipate it, account for it and capitalize on it.


9. THOU SHALT NOT HEDGE OR SECOND GUESS - you are decisive. You decide to bet or not to bet. You decide who. No more "I was gonna bet the 3-9..look I had him circled." It doesn’t matter. You didn’t and someone else did. Shut it off. You made the best decision you could at the time, you made a decision and put you money where your mouth was. Constantly replaying what you were going to do is mentally unhealthy and is a form of subconscious hedging - you’re looking to make yourself feel smarter by pointing out that you had it, even though you didn’t. Hedging is an act of indecision, be it mental hedging or physical hedging. Each are unhealthy. You don’t bet 2 horses to win. And if you are alive in the doubles, you sit tight and don’t hedge by covering your bet with other horses. You go with your decision and either live or die by the sword.

Again, under the right circumstances, the pick-3 is the perfect vehicle for betting aggressively, but still covering your ass - I've become a big fan of it over the past year because of this. See .... even Steve learns and adjusts!


10. THOU SHALT HAVE A BIAS TOWARD HIGHER PRICES - I’ve already talked about the mathematics of favoritism, and I’ll talk more about this. Until then, you have to accept a simple truth: this is a game were perfection is not a realistic goal. The only people I know who are consistent winners lose much more often then they win. Harry goes to the windows constantly to collect - but he’s always tapped out! Though betting favorites can be an important part of your overall strategy, it is not a profitable part - the place where you’re profits will come is with the mid- to longer-priced payoffs. You have to be alive when they come. You have to learn to recognize the dead from those who are merely sleeping.

Anybody who has followed this sight for the past year or so just HAS TO believe in this by now. With the new increases in purses scheduled for February at the Meadowlands, the racing should become even more competitive than ever - this means more in-shape horses and better prices. Favorites at the Meadowlands are truly becoming a worse and worse betting proposition than ever, as far as I am concerned.

© 1997, 1998 Kimstarr Communications