My dad taught me as a kid, a simple truth: to make money in this game, you have to know how to pick 'em, and you have to know how to bet 'em. If you were to ask 100 people which is more important, they would probably say picking. Over 30 years experience has shown me that the reverse is true - it's more important to know how to bet 'em. In my day, I've seen alot of good pickers out there who can't produce the financial results over the long haul, because they are weak betters. I've rarely seen a really sharp better who can't outperform the crowd.

You can have great picks, but if you are a weak better, you still might not make your share - and you'll need great picks just to hold your own. A good, disciplined, smart bettor can make do with much more average selections.

I want to focus briefly this week on one psychological dynamic of speculating that really gets people in trouble. Something you have to know first - I do not do handicapping as a living. It's one of my hobbies. I did so though in the past, helping to put myself through college and grad school. What do I do with myself to earn a living, you might ask? I'm a professional speculator, and people pay me tons of money each year to speculate with their money. So, horses notwithstanding, I know a little bit about what it takes to speculate in a mentally healthy way.

What inspired me to put this down now is a recent experience at the track. It's well known that organisms respond to two basic instincts - the desire to gain pleasure and the desire to avoid pain. Of the two, pain avoidance is the dominant instinct. People will ultimately do more to avoid pain than they will to gain reward. But somehow, when it gets into the art of speculation (or gambling), many seem to to an about face.

Have you ever had this type of thing happen to you. Say you like the #1 horse, and he's 9-1 so you wan't to play him in the exotics. Okay - I really like win betting, but no beef here. So you're pondering some trifectas, and you decide to play 1-2-3, 1-2-4 and 1-2-5. Then something catches your eyes about the #9 horse. You'd like to put him in there, you just don't know where or how. He's 17-1. The #2, incidently, is the 3-5 favorite. So you hem and you haw, you really like the #1, so you don't play the #9 on top. The big favorite looks beatable to you, objectively, but ultimately, you surrender to the judgement of the crowd and throw in a 1-2-9. Now the #9 leaves and gets the pocket, the #2 is hung first over for his life, with you're #1 right behind, second over, and you're sick! Your saying to yourself, "I should have played 1-9, or 9-1...I knew it...I knew he had a shot...look...there he is, perfect trip...oh man! You're #1 takes the lead in the stretch and you can't even root for him. The nine comes out of the pocket and holds on for the place spot, and some other horse, say #7, closes for third, so you weren't going to the trifecta anyway. The 1-9 exacta pays $210. Your sick. All you can think about his why you didn't play it ... you knew it.... you had a feeling...ah nuts. Ever happen to you?

When you see that big number go up on the board, and you know honestly that you could have had it, it hurts - and it hurts bad. It ruins your night. It makes you doubt yourself, you can get gunshy, you can really go into a funk, sometimes for days or weeks. All you can think about is the $210 exacta that you should have had 5 times. It can be a real confidence ruiner. In fact, the hurt that this puts on you is far greater than the pleasure that you get from hitting that 1-2-9 trifecta that ends up paying less than you think because everyone's got the #2 in it. And if you did throw in a 1-9, and you're 1-2-5 came in for $175, you're pretty happy. Maybe you say to yourself, "see, I shouldn't have thrown that 9 in after all, wasted a bet." Certainly, this pain is quickly washed away by your victory. Even if you're #1 doesn't win and you loose the race, an hour later, you really aren't in emotional pain over the extra exacta you threw in with the #9.

So look at the balance...by not adding an extra 1-9 exacta, you've put yourself in an emotional no-win situation. Your damned if you do, and your damned if you don't. The pain of not having it is so great and there was little to lose by throwing it in, even if you lost.

So what am I saying? I'm not telling you to throw in all kinds of long shots you feel have no shot, unless you are betting "all" by design. Nor am I encouraging you to throw in a favorite that you don't like, just because he's the favorite. But if there's a combination up there with a horse that you like, and it's paying a real good number - ask yourself the question: If this comes in, and I HONESTLY liked it, and that number goes up on the tote board, how pissed am I going to be? And if your answer is "very," than for pete's sake give yourself the shot at that home run, don't be so cheap, and throw in the extra ticket or two. You won't miss the extra few bucks - you'll get over that pretty fast - what you won't get over is that big number that you could have honestly had. Give yourself the chance to stumble into a home run. It feels great if you do, and not so bad if you don't.

P.S. For those of you who followed our recent Monticello selections, in a recent race, I really liked CLASSICALLY SMART, but I saw the number with KEYSTONE GUNNER (a horse I knew was in good shape) on top, and threw it in - he won, paid $31.80 and I caught my $150 exacta. My friend sitting next to me, saved money and only had KEYSTONE GUNNER underneath, and was sick to his stomach. The End.