the wake up closer pattern

Handicapping Corner

with Steve M.

REPEATING SHAPE PATTERNS
The Turnaround In-Shape Closer

Remember to vote often right not would be good

before you continue with this week's column!

Here’s the first of the "angle-type" concepts that we’ll discuss, but it is not an angle in the sense of being a crutch - it is a "pattern" which many closers show which signals a return to shape.

The advantage in noticing the pattern in advance is that it allows you to get on the horse earlier. Especially with closers, they tend to be much higher prices before they show their cards for real. Also, they can often be played profitably underneath at real value prices even a week or so early. Hence, as you have heard me say often, "I’d rather be a week early than a week late." With closers who are coming to form, the price differential can be enormous. With speed horses, often the odds start to reflect in-shape possibilities as the horse shows good speed in the early part of races and holds better. With closers, often they cannot even get into a race early enough, and hence, can be coming into shape even though it doesn’t really show.

We'll start with the assumption that we have a closer who has clearly not been sharp for an extended time. By closer, I mean a horse who does his most effective racing from off the pace, by design, when he is sharp. This is as opposed to the speed or grinder horse who are racing from off the pace either because they are in less than good shape, or because the race has developed in a way which forces them to race that way, or because they are in over their heads. It’s important to understand who is a closer and who is not. At the Meadowlands, some of the more well-known pure closers who come to mind are Danger of Fire, Left Hand Man, Houston Hanover, The Wrath of Pan, Stout, Bad Bert and Simon Says. Of course there are others, but these are just some more easily identifiable ones that we all know. These are closers.

With any horse who comes into shape, there is a "key race" which announces the horse’s return to shape. It is in this race that the horse either obviously or subtlely does more than would have been expected (haven’t we heard that before?) Once a horse shows he is in shape in a key race, he is in shape until such time that he runs another key race which announces that he is no longer in shape.

The way closers come into shape is different that the way speed horses do. There’s a saying that trainers have, "you have to get tired to get tight." This is true for horses just as it is for people who are doing weight training, for example. But this is much more true for a speed horse. Speed horses can disappear from sight in key races, but closers, in order for the race to be a key reversal of form, must outperform others in the lane. Tiring, for a closer, is NEVER a good sign.

Also, another thing to note before moving forward with the pattern - it is much less valid for young, green horses than for older horses who have established racing patterns. A young one can seem to move well in a pack, in a fast final half, but when asked to make the move and go by, he may not yet know what is expected.

So what is it we look for in a pure closer which would qualify as a key race for shape purposes. For a previously out-of-shape closer, the key race contains 4 elements:

1. the fractions are such that the final half is the fastest of the 3 halves (first, middle, final)
2. he outperforms, if even slightly, several others during that portion of the race and, in particular, the stretch.
3. he gains on or passes at least one horse in the stretch who was "in-shape" going into that race.
4. the key reversal race MUST match the horse’s most effective in-shape style. So, if you have a horse who usually does his best in-shape racing with advanced positioning, then this pattern from off the pace SAYS NOTHING about whether he has returned to good shape. So this is true ONLY for horse’s who when in top shape, race most effectively and by design, from off the pace.

Note that a strong stretch performance in a race where the final half is NOT the fastest of the 3 halves would not qualify as a key reversal race, since a horse in average shape could be expected to do well here.

These are some very objective criteria, and are readily observable, and this is a very reliable way of spotting closers who have a strong likelihood of being returned to shape. Naturally, you must later objectively estimate their chances of winning in any future race.

WHAT TO LOOK FOR IN THE RACE AFTER THE KEY RACE

The pattern continues in one of several ways. Here are the things that I have noted which happen most often and which continue the "back-to-shape" pattern:

1. The horse draws and inside post and leaves for the lead or for early position, and subsequently fades - if you have spotted a closer in a key type of race above, and this happens in the next race, you can ignore this race regardless of how bad it looks.
2. The horse draws from the middle of the track on out, and turns in a strong stretch performance - this can be either a winning performance or a non-winning one. If this next race is a win, then this confirms his shape regardless of the fractions. (Remember -we don’t knock down an in-shape horse who wins, even if the other 9 horses fall down). If it is not a win, then I will look more closely at the fractions to see if the race was truly winnable. For example, it can be a slow final half (which looks winnable) but if it’s due to a slow 3rd quarter and he was continuing to follow cover, he could be prevented from winning. Or he may have had excess cover or traffic problems. If however, the 3rd quarter was legit, and he closes but does not win, then unless he had traffic problems, you may need to re-evaluate. Remember, drivers will sometimes just give up and take what they can get if they see the race hasn’t gone their way after a certain point, and this happens much more often with closers, so, once I have a closer who I feel is in shape, I will often give him the benefit of the doubt if the next race seems a little uninspiring.
3. The horse will move up in claiming price in next race - even if the key race was a loss, often the trainer will now feel that he is in shape and move him up. Often the trainer who has been sitting with the horse in the poor times will not want the horse taken if he feels the horse is now coming on. Alternatively, the connections might, after what appears to be an unsuccessful race (but one that qualifies as a key reversal) move a horse out of claimers and into conditioned races.
4. In conditioned racing, this key race may be followed by a very dull race with no apparent effort of moves, or the horse may go for the lead from an outside post. They may do this in order to finish 6th or worse, thereby removing earnings from the card and allowing the horse to race at a reduced level for several starts when they know he is sharp. (PLEASE NOTE: IF THE HORSE DOES LEAVE FROM AN OUTSIDE POST AND MANAGES TO WIN OR RACES IMPRESSIVELY, ODDS ARE THIS WAS NOT A CLOSER, BUT A DIFFERENT TYPE OF HORSE MASQUERADING AS A CLOSER WHILE NOT IN SHAPE)

Let’s take a look at a very recent examples, and a potential current one. First we’ll look at one of our favorite pure closers, HOUSTON HANOVER, and here is his program line for the race in question, race 3 on April 2, 1998 at the Meadowlands.

Now, if anyone needs to be told that from 1/30 through 3/8 he was out of shape, you need to go read more basic stuff - try the USTA web site and pick up some tidbits over there. Let’s take a look at the races shown, race by race, fraction by fraction:

	1st half	mid. half	last half	comment
3/22/98	56.3	58	56.3	missed a week- seemed to gain some ground
3/8/98	57.3	58	58	reserved off pace - nothing
3/1/98	56.1	57.2	57.4	2 1/2 weeks off, parked with cover - nothing
2/6/98	57.2	58.4	57.2	rail position - no gain
1/30/98	57.3	58.2	56.4	10 hold - did nothing

At first glance, there’s something a bit different, possibly, about the most recent race - here, the final half was the fastest half (actually tied with the first) and faster than the average of the opening and middle halves. You will note that the 3rd quarter was particularly slow, 29.3, which really ought to hurt the chances of the closer. Let’s grab the chart of that race, and see if this was really an alert close, or if it just looks like it:

The winner here, Kash Ever After, was tons the best, took the lead down the back stretch and the flow developed before the half. Orchard Street was 1st over, providing nice cover for Nuclear Sun. Chief Marty was also set up decently 3rd over. On the rail behind the winner was Tough Knight, who benefited by the duel, Lacquer sat 3rd under, followed by HOUSTON HANOVER 4th under.
When all was said and done, the second over horse Nuclear Sun was able to gain a length on the winner. Chief Marty, from 3rd over lost some ground and picked up 2 ¼ from the marker. The pocket horse Tough Knight actually lost a length, while Lacquer paced evenly gaining ½ length. HOUSTON HANOVER, who you know had to have some traffic, gained 3 ¾ lengths once clear, obviously a legitimate close. So this becomes an honest, potential form-reversal race for HOUSTON HANOVER.

As for what happened in this race - let’s give a look of the chart of the race in question for April 2.

We see that HOUSTON HANOVER (who we selected as our value play in that race) won and paid $13, which was a nice price, I thought, considering that I had gone on record as saying that I thought he should have been the favorite!! He apparently got a nice trip, 2nd over with a final half in a slow 58.4! Got lucky, huh?

Well, I say no. However, most importantly, had his 3/22 race not occurred, and instead this was his race on 3/22 - I WOULD NOT CALL HIM SHARP! In other words, this winning effort, on it’s own, would not have been enough to consider him in shape! Sure, it was a big improvement, but that would have only moved him from poor shape to average shape in my book, because a horse in average shape could have well picked up these pieces if set up. It is only acceptable because it came on the heels of a race (the 3/22 above) which we knew had the characteristics of a key-reversal race! Now, once he’s in shape, it’s okay for him to win with a slow last half! (If you saw the race, in addition, you would have seen that he was gapping somewhat, and really hit another gear late in the mile to win easily). If he didn’t get there, though, in the 4/2 race, you might have to ask some questions.

So this is pattern #1 - The Closer Reversal of Form Pattern - and it is a very reliable way to see when closers are coming around and when they may well have returned to form.

In this upcoming Wednesday night card at the Meadowlands (April 8, 1998), the third race contains what I feel is a horse that qualifies for this treatment. Your assignment is to see if you can find out who he is. I’m warning you though - it’s not as obvious a situation as the one we looked at above.